The Broncos won the first matchup this season by 16, and even if you erase the 100-yard pick six, that version of Denver was 9 points better. Since then, Bo Nix has come into his own, the Broncos defense has only gotten better, and the Raiders have traded Davante Adams. Las Vegas had a nice showing last week at Miami (in a straight up and ATS loss) behind some improved offensive play calling, but all of that is now on tape for Denver. The Raiders’ rushing attack, now further depleted without Zamir White, won’t be enough help for Gardner Minshew. Basically, the Broncos just need to stop Brock Bowers.

Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix continues to improve, and has impressively limited turnovers and sacks. I see a big coaching advantage for Denver with Sean Payton. Raiders QB Gardner Minshew has gone up against Payton-coached teams twice, and went 0-2 SU & ATS, just scoring 24 total points. The Raiders lead the NFL in turnovers this season, and Denver’s defense has been elite. The Raiders are also decimated with injuries right now. Both RBs Alexander Mattison and Zamir White are ‘Doubtful’ for this game, two starting offensive linemen are ‘Questionable’, and two starting DB’s Nate Hobbs & Jakorian Bennet have been ruled out. The public is heavy on Denver which scares me, but I just don’t see it for Las Vegas.

A lot has happened since Denver's 34-18 win over Las Vegas in Week 5. That began the Raiders' six-game slide. Head coach Antonio Pierce has made two switches at QB and is back to original starter Gardner Minshew. Wideout Davante Adams has been traded. Three assistant coaches have been dismissed, including offensive coordinator Luke Getsy. While the Raiders do have two spread covers in those six losses, both came via the backdoor in the final minute with belated scores against the Rams and Chiefs. Meanwhile, Denver rookie QB Bo Nix, who continues to improve by leaps and bounds, is coming off a performance against Atlanta in which he was 28-of-33 for 307 yards and four TDs. Play the Broncos.

The public is all over Denver. The Broncos are 5-1 ATS on the road this season while Las Vegas has lost six straight. The Raiders have only won one game at home thus far and are only averaging 18.8 points per game at home while allowing 27.8 points. They’ll also most likely be without Alexander Mattison, who’s currently listed as doubtful. Denver hasn’t been this big of a road favorite since December 2022 and the line is moving in the Raiders favor. This game has the same feel like the Packers/Bears last week.

What has really changed for the Broncos has been Bo Nix' footwork has cleaned up more, which has allowed him to be much more accurate with his passes. His ability as a dual threat that can minimize the mistakes has really helped this offense and team signifcantly.

Since Week 5, QB Bo Nix has ranked 4th in fantasy points per game. A big part of that is the number of touchdown passes he has thrown. Since Week 5, Nix has thrown for multiple touchdowns in five of seven games. Now Nix has a top-10 matchup against the Raiders and I like him to throw for at least two touchdowns or more on Sunday.

I still don't fully trust this Broncos team, but this is a spot where we shouldn't overthink things. In reality, there will likely be a 50-50 split when it comes to fans in Allegiant Stadium, so this isn't your typical road game. On the field, the Broncos defense is elite and should smother the struggling Raiders offense. Bo Nix has closed the gap between himself and Jayden Daniels in the OROY race, and he should have ample opportunity to shine on Sunday. I expect the Broncos to win this game by 7+

The Raiders have been getting obliterated by tight ends the past three games, giving up 35 catches for 397 yards to the position. Denver doesn't pepper its tight ends, but Adam Trautman is the starter and he ran more routes than Nate Adkins did last week. Trautman also has 123 receiving yards over the past four games despite not making a catch last week. Because of the matchup, I like Trautman to clear this low number.

This is a steep price, but I love this spot for safety Trevon Moehrig, who continues to play 100 percent of the defensive snaps. The Broncos generate the most tackles for opposing safeties, and Moehrig's tackle rate has surged lately because he's playing closer to the line of scrimmage. With 50 tackles in his last six games, and the best possible matchup, Moehrig should get at least seven combined stops.

The Broncos stopped an eight-game Raider win streak against them in October with a 34-18 win and they're going to do something similar in Las Vegas on Sunday. The crowd will be half of Bronco fans wearing their brand-new Bo Nix jerseys in orange and blue. A very pro-Brocos crowd in Las Vegas will finally have something to cheer about. The Raiders have lost their last six games covering only two of them. The Broncos are battling for a possible playoff spot and they're 8-3 against the spread on the season. They've covered four of their last five. Broncos cover.

Courtland Sutton is averaging 7 receptions and nearly 10 targets per game over his last four games (with yardage of 78, 70, 122 and 100 over his last four). Although other Bronco receivers are getting into the mix, he still enjoys a very large target and air yard share and I don't see it slowing down against a suspect Raiders defense which also has some injuries in their secondary. It's notable that Sutton has had his recent success in close games and in blowouts and I expect his usage streak to continue this week.

Despite five QBs being selected before Bo Nix and inheriting an offense void of offensive talent, Nix is having a stellar rookie season and is coming off the best game of his young career. Nix has eclipsed this line in three of his previous four outings, while compiling 9 TDs to just 1 INT. Nix will face a Raiders pass defense that is ranked 26th in EPA allowed per dropback, 28th in Success Rate per dropback, and dead last in PFF's coverage grade. Look for Nix to carve up the Raiders leaky secondary.

Sean Payton knows exactly what he's doing with this kid. He has a 114.5 passer rating in his last 4 games - despite playing in very tough environments on the road and facing legit defenses - and this team is not afraid to throw for TDs with the rookie passer. The run game is suspect and Nix has 9 TDs to 1 turnover in his last 4 games. He has 2 or more TD passes in 3 of the last 4 games and the Raiders D is falling apart and has allowed 10 passing TDs the last 4 games. There won't be any real homefield advantage here. No weather issues. Raiders allowing 71% completions last 4 weeks.

Im a believer in a Denver D who will be highly motivated to not make mistakes, check this box, and get out of Vegas with a profit. I love the fact we are currently beyond 17, as 18 and 19 are largely dead numbers Vegas needs to get to 20. Nope.

The Broncos are coming off a dominant win against the Falcons that surprised the market, but we anticipated it thanks to Atlanta's lack of a pass rush. The Raiders defense is a different challenge with one of the best pass rush win rates in the league, and the Raiders have proven strong at home, including a 6-2-1 ATS record last year. I don't think we're going to see the same Bo Nix this week, and while that should lead to a close, lower-scoring game, the Raiders did have some success last week (5.3 yards per play) against a Dolphins defense coming off a big game. If Vegas can avoid another 100-yard pick-six, which happened in the first meeting, they should cover.

They are markedly better than the Raiders and the Raiders have no real home field advantage and Denver already blew then out, 34-18, despite playing a poor game and before Bo Nix took off. Nix has 9 passing TDs to 1 INT in his last four games with a stellar passer rating (114.5). Denver’s defense will suffocate what’s left of the Raiders offense, and they are great against tight ends, which might not bode well for Brock Bowers. Sean Payton’s team is 7-3-1 ATS and love being on the road (4-1-1 ATS). Antonio Pierce is going to get fired and everyone in Vegas pretty much knows it.