Atlanta is banged up at linebacker and in the secondary. Bo Nix could have a career day against that defense -- which can't rush the passer, either, with just nine sacks. Denver’s O-line ranks first in pass block win rate. I do have some concerns about a letdown off that devastating loss last week in KC, but the Broncos' season is essentially on the line in terms of a good shot at the playoffs.

Perhaps this is a slight overreaction to last week, but the Falcons’ failures against the Saints were immensely frustrating. They failed to capitalize on numerous opportunities and simply gave away that game. The Broncos, conversely, have been playing inspired football behind rookie QB Bo Nix. He has shown significant poise behind a strong offensive line and should have all the time in the world against a weak Atlanta defensive front. Denver’s defense is real, the spread is meager and the home-field advantage is legitimate in Mile High.

I make Cousins a much better candidate to throw less than 2 TDS. I like the price as I make him 38% to toss 2.

I love it when a great matchup meets great usage. Courtland Sutton has the 4th most red zone targets among all receivers (12) with two redzone touchdowns. I think we'll be seeing positive touchdown regression for Sutton with that kind of usage. The matchup is equally exciting, as the Falcons give up the 3rd most touchdowns to wide receivers. This is a great price for Sutton to find paydirt Sunday against the Falcons. I'm betting a .5 unit on Sutton's Anytime Touchdown.

The Broncos had the undefeated Chiefs all but beat last week, until Kansas City summoned voodoo magic once again to block a field goal and spoil Denver's upset. This week, I expect the Broncos to get back on track. Their defense has been elite this season at every level. Broncos lockdown CB Patrick Surtain should be able to limit Falcons star WR Drake London, and allow this Denver D-line to get to a stationary Kirk Cousins. Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix has been able to avoid sacks and turnovers. If he limits mistakes, the Broncos will win at the line of scrimmage and handle this game. This Falcons team remains on "fraud alert" for me. I'll join the party and fade Atlanta.

This Falcons defense has not gotten to the quarterback this season. Atlanta ranks a paltry 31st in QB pressure rate. Nix should have plenty of time to operate behind a strong offensive line, and I expect him to use his legs in open space. Nix can pick up first downs on rushes to the outside when the Falcons front fails to get through, and the DB's all drop back into Atlanta's zone-heavy coverage scheme. Nix has 5+ rushes in 8/10 games this season, and has gone over this mark in 5 of them. His two best rushing games this season came against the Chargers (61 rush yards) and the Saints (75 rush yards), both of whom struggle to generate QB pressure.

We really thought the Broncos could get one of the two road games at Baltimore and Kansas City prior to this week; last Sunday at Arrowhead looked to be it. So it goes. Still, progress for the Broncos, and the defense was stellar again vs. Patrick Mahomes after disappearing the week before vs. the Ravens. Kirk Cousins, however, could be a sitting duck in the pocket for a Denver pass rush that got to Mahomes four times last week and harassed and hurried him numerous other times, and now with 35 sacks on the season led by LB Nik Bonitto's seven, and 6.5 from fellow LB Jonathon Cooper. Bo Nix also playing well enough to trust at QB for Denver. Play Broncos on ML

While Kyle Pitts may not be a comfortable click for his over props, he has received five or more targets in five of the last six games. Since Week 5, Pitts has soared past his receiving prop line in all but that one game when he only saw one target. This week, the outside receivers have much more difficult matchups against the Broncos secondary than Pitts. So look for him to be an easier target for QB Kirk Cousins.

Bijan Robinson has drawn 18 targets the past three weeks. With Kirk Cousins expected to be under heavy pressure Sunday, Robinson will be needed as an outlet. The Broncos have been giving up a ton of receiving yardage to opposing running backs -- 228 yards over the past three games.

Kyle Pitts has had a solid season but you could make the argument a lot his production has been fairly fluky and he is a significant regression candidate. Pitts possesses just a 7% first read target rate which is frankly a poor number and indicates that he is simply not a part of the Atlanta game plan. This is also a difficult matchup against a stingy Broncos secondary that ranks top 5 in EPA allowed per dropback, in addition to surrendering the 6th fewest yards per game to enemy TEs.

The Broncos are off back-to-back unsurprising losses in Baltimore and Kansas City, although they were closer to beating the latter than anyone expected. The Broncos offense has a great chance to get back on track in this matchup, as the Falcons don't have a pass rush to pressure Bo Nix. On the other side of the ball, the Broncos defense has been excellent outside of the Ravens game, and while the Atlanta offense is good, it's not on that level. Throw in a much more positive injury report and home-field advantage, and it feels like Broncos should win this game, maybe even by margin.

Rookie Audric Estime took over the Broncos' backfield last week at K.C., getting 14 of the 17 carries. He gets a much easier matchup this week vs. Atlanta, which has given up 4.8 yards per carry over the past three games. I bet Over on his rushing yards as this number should rise.

After an 0-2 straight-up start with rookie QB Bo Nix getting his feet soaked, the Broncos have gone 5-3. Their last two defeats were expected -- against Baltimore and Kansas City, the latter of which should have been a win. They should enter this game the healthier team. Half of the CBs on Atlanta's roster were held from practice Thursday, and QB Kirk Cousins is coping with various injuries. While impressive overall, he has fared less well against defenses on Denver's level. The Broncos are fond of blitzing, and Cousins is not exactly quick on his feet. This spot could ascend to three points, which brings immediacy to the pick.

This is a spot that's worth a 0.5 sprinkle in my eyes. Denver has made a noticeable effort to get the tight end position more involved in its offense, and Trautman is the lead guy in that spot. The 27-year-old tight end showed what he can do when given the opportunity in the Broncos' win over the Panthers, catching four passes for 85 yards and a touchdown. At 7-1 the potential payout here, the juice is worth the squeeze.

The Falcons are coming off a tough loss to the Saints where the teams combined for 833 yards of offense but Atlanta missed three FGs. Prior to that, six straight Falcons games got to 48 points, and their lack of pass rush should lead to a good scoring environment for Bo Nix. The Broncos have scored 28-plus against the Panthers, Saints and Raiders in recent weeks, so this game has sneaky shootout potential despite the low total, while the altitude could help us get the FGs we need to get over as well.

The Falcons haven't played a good defense in almost two months and now must go on the road to play a very tough Broncos defense. To be fair, the Broncos don't have a lot of signature wins on their resume, but their near win over the Chiefs was impressive. I think the Broncos will be able to move the ball against a weak Falcons defense and I think the Falcons pass rush will get to Cousins early and often. This is a bad matchup for the Falcons on the road and I expect the Broncos to bounce back after last week's tough loss.

The Atlanta Falcons travel to Denver to play the Broncos before their BYE week. Atlanta has a sack differential of -1.1, while Denver is +1.8 this season. That’s the largest difference through Week 10. This system has produced 70% winners when the spread is less than 3 points. I think the Broncos will out-physical the Falcons, who haven’t played in Denver since 2016. The Broncos have the much better net yards per play defense, third-down defense, red-zone defense, net yards per pass attempt defense, and special teams. Denver has played a more demanding schedule as well. My model makes the Broncos a favorite of -3.8 points. I can see this line creeping up throughout the week, so get down ASAP.

The Broncos should have won at Arrowhead Sunday and they arguably outplayed the Ravens in Baltimore in the first half the week before. They are back home and Sean Payton will have them ready to fight for their season against a middling Falcons team. Denver has a distinct home field advantage with the altitude and its defense will wreak havoc here. They play a physical style that will be a problem for Atlanta outdoors. Bo Nix is managing games very well and Falcons have a serious kicking problem. Broncos 6-3-1 vs the spread this season and Falcons have played half their games against crappy NFC South teams. Probably aren’t as solid as their record indicates. ATL is 3-9 ATS vs the AFC since 2022.