Would have been nice to get this at 6 but the 49ers are the right side for more reasons than Christian McCaffrey – and that’s a big reason. Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings are both active, as is Jake Moody. Don’t discount his ability to impact a game. All of this comes with San Francisco rested off the bye. Kyle Shanahan’s squad surges over the second halves of seasons, and while the Bucs were able to outscheme the Chiefs, they are on a short week and remain shorthanded weapon-wise. Baker Mayfield has been awesome, but his heroics won’t be enough in this spot against a49ers team likely rounding into form. San Francisco is another good teaser leg this week.

The 49ers are off a bye, rested and reasonably healthy. With a second-half surge needed to win the NFC West, look for them to give a strong showing against a short-handed Bucs team that has maximized its talent but has also reached its ceiling.

The 49ers are coming out of their bye week with a much cleaner bill of health. Star RB Christian McCaffrey will return to action, along with key WR Jauan Jennings. Meanwhile, this injury-ridden Bucs team comes into this game on a short week following Monday night’s overtime loss to the Chiefs. Tampa QB Baker Mayfield has impressively continued to generate offense while WRs Mike Evans & Chris Godwin have been sidelined with injury. However, this could be the game the Bucs really struggle. San Fransisco’s defense is Top 5 in defensive DVOA, and do their best work in the secondary defending the pass. Mayfield’s new favorite target TE Cade Otton can’t outscore the Niners by himself. Lay the points with SF.

Fresh off a bye, the 49ers have a great matchup against the Buccaneers' pass defense. We know to target the passing game vs. the Bucs. Diving further, the Buccaneers give up the 3rd most receiving yards to tight ends this season. While the 49ers are getting weapons back this week in RB Christian McCaffery and WR Jauan Jennings, we know Kittle is a trusted target of Brock Purdy. Kittle is averaging seven targets per game. He should still get a similar target rate, which especially in this matchup, should set him up to soar over this line.

Mayfield has gone over this number in six of nine games. Last week without his two top receivers, Mayfield rushed four times for 20 yards. I think he takes off a few times times in this game as well versus a 49ers team that can rush the passer. If he does, we should cash the over on a total I feel is a little low with Mayfield averaging 21 rushing yards per game in 2024.

Jauan Jennings (hip) upgraded to a full practice Friday, a great sign for his involvement Sunday. He rates highly in terms of separation, and the 49ers need him to step up with Brandon Aiyuk sidelined. The Bucs rank 28th in pass defense in the middle of the field, and that's where Jennings (6-3, 212) thrives.

In wins this season Brock Purdy has averaged 27.5 attempts per game and has yet to throw even 30 times. In losses Purdy has averaged 33.0 attempts per game but has thrown 31 or fewer passes in two of the Niners' four losses. Point being, the 49ers rely on efficiency and a foundational run game to carry them. And that run game is expected to get Christian McCaffrey back this week against a Bucs run defense that's started to show cracks lately. The more the Niners can break through against it, the less Purdy will have to throw.

We lost on this prop on Monday night for Baker Mayfield as his streak of three straight games with multiple picks ended, but there were a few nearly intercepted in Kansas City. The former Heisman winner has thrown at least one INT in five of nine games, and the Niners are tied for fourth in the NFL with 10 picks. I expect the Bucs to be down a fair amount at some point and Mayfield to be slinging it often.

This line is simply too low for the guy who could be taking over the Brandon Aiyuk role. We've seen Jauan Jennings explode already this season and he's always been efficient when he gets an opportunity. The matchup here against the Bucs is also pretty great as this pass defense may get carved up by Brock Purdy (Purdy slated for 260 passing yards). I'll note Jennings is coming off a hip injury, which kept him out for a couple of games, but he appears to be a full-go.

George Kittle has surpassed this number in four straight games. He’s averaging 64 receiving yards over his last ten games. Tampa Bay’s defense has allowed the second most receiving yards (627 yards in nine games) against opposing tight ends. With CMC and Juan Jennings on the right side of the injury report, the Bucs will have to focus on more weapons, taking some attention away from Kittle. TB is off a short week where its defense was on the field for 83 plays and over 40 minutes of possession time. George Kittle had 116 receiving yards after their BYE week last season.

The only 5.5 left on our board, and this only goes up this week if the Bucs' initial injury report is any possible indication of who might miss Sunday's game on a short week off Monday's tough loss in KC. Baker Mayfield is on that list. I'm guessing he will play at less than 100%. If it's Kyle Trask instead, this spread is stealing. The Niners are about as healthy as they have been all season out of their bye and with Christian McCaffrey set to make his season debut. The only negative is the 10 a.m. Pacific kick but I think the bye week somewhat diminishes that. The 49ers are an NFL-best 23-4 in the 2nd half of the season (Weeks 10-18) since 2021.

I am assuming Baker Mayfield is gutting it out for this game and if he does, Otton will be fed and fed again. The 49ers take away TEs deep but they allow plenty of catches underneath (74% completions to TEs, 17th in NFL) and Mayfield loves to keep chains moving with little passe to this guy. Bucs probably chasing game so D okay with that. This guy has 25 catches in the last 3 weeks, since the Bucs lost their top 2 WRs. He is the primary read in many cases and has a knack for getting open. No reason to project less than 10-12 targets here, including most in high-percentage areas of the field.

It sounds like Christian McCaffrey will make his season debut, not to mention Jauan Jennings (404 receiving yards, 3 TDs in six games) will be back. This spot is reminiscent of last season, when the 49ers came out of their bye healthier and destroyed host Jacksonville 34-3. That propelled San Fran on a 7-1 tear. The Bucs are on a short week after a crushing defeat at K.C. They've given up an average of 33 points over the past five games (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS), and their defense was on the field for a whopping 83 plays Monday night. With Mike Evans still sidelined, I bet against Baker Mayfield and the Bucs keeping this close.

The 49ers appear trending toward having Christian McCaffrey for the first time this season, and they could also have Jauan Jennings back too. That should mean a big game for the offense against a Bucs defense that had to line up against the Chiefs for more than four quarters on Monday. The 49ers have already reached 30 in half their games this year and of course went on a high-scoring run last year en route to the Super Bowl, and this could be a chance to see the offense playing at its highest level of the season. Grab an Over 27.5 where you can find it.

The 49ers are coming off a bye week, while the Buccaneers are coming off a heartbreaking overtime loss to the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. San Francisco is getting healthier and looks poised for go on another late season run. The Bucs continue to battle injuries and will likely be without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans again for this matchup. I don't love the early East Coast start time for the West Coast-based 49ers, but I expect Kyle Shanahan to have his team ready coming off a bye. Niners by 6+ here.

The Bucs play crazy games, just embrace it. They have 6 straight games 49+, averaging 63, 63, per game in that span. They are 7-2 to over this season, going over by 10.44 points on avg (next closest team is at 8.7). Bucs games average 56 points - most. 49ers are 5-3 over and 14-9 over since start of last season and their games average 49 points in '24. Bucs D on field a lot MNF, short week. SF D is not special and have allowed 24+ in 4 straight and 5 of 6. TB has allowed 27+ in 5 straight. SF offense gets CMC back and geared up off a bye. This game gets played in the 50s.