The Chiefs have improved as a cover team, but they are 0-2-1 ATS as a TD+ favorite – including a tough-to-stomach failure last week. The Bucs make their hay offensively, yet they have not faced a unit anywhere near as dominant as Steve Spagnuolo’s crew. Now they are operating without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin against the "weakest" part of that Kansas City D. Conversely, the Chiefs have DeAndre Hopkins comfortable against the Bucs’ 30th-ranked passing D. KC has struggled making explosive plays; Tampa Bay provides that opportunity. Xavier Worthy could go off. Don’t love large spreads, but we try to pick every island game. KC is more to my liking. See if -8 pops. Also like this as a teaser leg with the Chargers.

DHop should eat tonight. And I like both catches and yards but if he catches 4 he should exceed and he might only catching 3. So yards

Travis Kelce is the clear focal point of the Chiefs passing attack and after a slow start to the season, has put to bed the doubters claiming that Kelce was a shell of his former self. The future Hall of Famer has racked 30 receptions over his last 4 games and gets a tasty matchup against a Bucs pass defense that is 26th in EPA allowed per dropback, in addition to raking 30th in defensive success rating on dropbacks. The Bucs play zone defense at the highest rate in the league and I expect Kelce is rack up plenty of receptions tonight.

I played the 1H Under as well. Weather conditions, plus a committed Chiefs rush attack may cause a lower scoring outcome. The Bucs WR room is getting depleted, and Baker Mayfield will have limited targets if Sterling Shepard or Jalen McMillan can’t play. The Chiefs are a team that trend to the Under at home. The betting public is heavy on the Over, yet the total has only dropped from its opening line of 47. Play Under.

Rain and potential wind gusts are expected during the initial portion of this game. Since re-signing RB Kareem Hunt, the Chiefs have gone with a run-heavy approach, giving him 20+ carries a game. I’m expecting that game plan to continue, and for KC to dominate time of possession. I also expect the hot Bucs offense to cool down against the best defense they’ve faced since Week 3 (when they put up 7 against the Broncos). Their offense is just too depleted. I am going to bet 1H Under 23.5, and the full game Under 45.5.

Although Tampa’s offense found success last week against the Falcons, I expect them to have a much tougher go against this top-tier Chiefs defense. The Bucs are already missing their starting WR duo, and now WRs Sterling Shepard & Jalen McMillan are both ‘questionable’ with hamstring injuries. Mayfield may have to pick up some first downs on his own if his limited receiver corps is struggling to find separation. Mayfield has cleared this rush yards total in 3 of the last 4 weeks, and has logged a 10+ yard rush in 7/8 weeks this season.

And just a half….23.5 becomes an incredibly key number/total. There is virtually no way to go over without having three touchdowns and a field goal by the two teams. Two touchdowns requires an additional FOUR made field goals…..that’s 6 scoring drives in just a half. In bad weather I’ll bet under this figure.

Patrick Mahomes has only gone over this number three times. In all three instances he was over 70% completion and in the last two he threw 39 and 38 passes respectively..(way more than projected tonight). Throw in the fact it’s going to be an ugly night weather wise and I’ll go under

The Buccaneers offense adjusted to its receiver injuries well last week, but I expect moving the ball will be much more difficult for them against this excellent Chiefs defense. Making matters worse, the weather is supposed to be ugly with a lot of rain in the forecast, and I expect both teams to focus on running the ball, which will keep the clock moving and limit possessions. That fits how the Chiefs have played this year, with four straight Unders hitting prior to a garbage-time TD by the Raiders last week. I'm surprised this number is still sitting above 45 and I could see in trending downward prior to kickoff.

Baker Mayfield has gone Under this prop number in six of eight games, and he remains without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. With inclement weather expected, and with the Chiefs' ability to pressure quarterbacks quickly, I bet Under on Mayfield's longest completion prop.

Both teams are dealing with a slew of injuries, and wind could be a factor on Monday night. The Chiefs have one of the NFL's top defenses, allowing 17.6 points per game this season. I expect the Bucs to have some issues moving the ball and finishing drives with points on MNF -- especially if rookie running back Bucky Irving is unable to play. I expect this game to be ugly, with the defenses shining.

We know a few stats we can lean into here. One weakness in the Chiefs' defense is against the tight end position. Cade Otton is tied for 2nd among tight ends in the NFL with the most red zone targets (10). We saw Otton become QB Baker Mayfield's main target with 10 targets last week, as Tampa Bay is depleted at the wide receiver position. With all this said, I thought Otton's Anytime Touchdown price would be under +200. I love this price for Otton to score again tonight.

Bucs RB Rachaad White has cleared this receiving yards total in 5 of the last 6 weeks. White has gotten 6 targets in 4 different games this season, and has 2 games with 70+ receiving yards. Without their star WR duo of Mike Evans & Chris Godwin, I expect Baker Mayfield to target his RBs & TE’s often. The Chiefs have been stingy against the run, and the Buccaneers may very well be in a negative game script and go pass-heavy. If White gets 6+ targets for the third straight game, that should be enough to get us over this number.

Rachaad White has had to split usage with Bucky Irving, but ever since the injuries to Godwin and Evans, he's also been utilized significantly in the receiving game. I suspect Bucky Irving will be good to go with his toe injury, but built into my bet is the possibility that Irving has issues with his injury (and the fact that the combo line protects against multiple game scripts). I expect White to get about 7-8 carries and 3-4 receptions and that should be enough to push him over this line.

The Bucs figure to be down pretty big at some point in this game, so Baker Mayfield figures to keep slinging. He's second in the NFL with nine picks and has multiple picks in three straight. The Chiefs only have five INTs but are Top 10 against the pass overall.

DeAndre Hopkins had a limited role in his Chiefs' debut, catching two of three targets. All the talk out of Kansas City indicates Hopkins' role is about to expand. It makes sense, too, as the Chiefs remain without Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Skyy Moore. The active wideouts are Hopkins, Xavier Worthy, Justin Watson and Mecole Hardman. The Bucs give up the third-most passing yards, so I'm expecting at least four catches from Hopkins.

The last remaining 2024 challenge to the undefeated Dolphins of 1972 are the Chiefs, but KC usually doesn't expend more energy than is needed. Only one win has come by more than 10 points, and that was only 13 points (26-13) vs. a very mistake-prone Saints bunch. Note the Bucs have fared very well on the road since last season, covering 10 of their last 13 away in what has been their best spread role. Tampa Bay is also 11-7 as an underdog since last season. Baker Mayfield's resourcefulness will be tested as favorite targets Chris Godwin and Mike Evans both out, but the Bucs always seem within earshot, as only once this season have they lost by more than 10 points. Play Bucs

With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin injured, Cade Otton has become Baker Mayfield's top target. He's caught 17 of 20 targets the past two weeks, and he's got a plus-matchup Monday in Kansas City. The Chiefs give up an NFL-high 8.71 targets and 7.0 catches to opposing tight ends. With the Bucs expected to be in catch-up mode, look for Otton to make at least five grabs.

Okay, so with the Bucs WRs wiped out, their top TE is getting the ball a ton. At least 10 targets the last two games, with great production (8 catches for 100 yards and 9 for 81). But what about than vaunted Chiefs D? And those athletic LBs. They are going to be a problem in coverage, right? Well. KC allowing 9.3 yds/att to TEs (29th) and a 102.6 passer rating. Baker Mayfield is running out of other options and even if the D pays more attention to him, this seems like a very reasonable number. The line strongly implies Bucs chasing this game, thus throwing a lot, and this is the most trusted remaining target by far.

The Bucs D is cratering and they have lost their two best playmaking receivers and Baker is forcing the ball and reverting to bad habits in the RZ and he's a big dog against the Super Bowl champs and Patrick Mahomes and facing a very opportunistic D and great playcalling DC> And he's throw 7 picks in 3 games. Of all current NFL starting QBs he is bottom 2 in turnover worthy throws and since Week 5 he is dead last at 6.5%, more than twice the league average. Tough spot for him on MNF

White's gone over this in 3 of his past 4 games, and he has at least three catches in each of his past three games and 5 of his past 7. That should give you an idea of how consistent he is in this role. Working on the assumption that the gamescript will involve the Bucs throwing a lot, White will take on a Chiefs defense ranked in the bottom-10 in pass EPA on targets to RBs, giving up 7.8 yards per catch. Five RBs have 21-plus yards versus the Chiefs this year including passing-downs RBs like Justice Hill and Alexander Mattison. I'd play up to 24.5 and would consider laddering this past 30+ and 40+.

Kelce finally ended America's nightmare and got in the endzone for the first time in like a year last week. Now he gets a team really struggling to defend TEs, and he's one of the only guys struggling Patrick Mahomes trusts in the redzone. And, well, he's been a TD machine his entire career. So I like this value. Todd Bowles blitzes a ton and Kelce is the go-to guy there. Bucs are allowing 10.4/att to TEs (31st), on 80% completions with 4 TDs allowed and no INTs and a 136.5 passer rating. At a time when the Chiefs passing game has all kinds of issues, hard for me not to see them leaning into this historic connection in prime time Monday.

Opposing teams have run the ball 59 times vs the Bucs wilting run defense the last two weeks with great effectiveness and Andy Reid is already leaning way into the run game, anyway. Over the last 3 weeks, since Hunt has gotten going and become the feature back, only six teams are calling more runs than Andy Reid. Yeah, how 'bout that? A Chiefs back is over this in 6 of 8 games and even the fumbling machine Carson Steele went over this a few weeks back. Another 20 carry outing vs this D wouldn't shock me in the least.

I'm gonna let you in on a little secret - the Chiefs are a run-first football team and Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL in picks since the start of last season. The Bucs have safeties who can make big plays but their run D is in bad shape (5.2/carry - 30th). Hunt has at least 22 carries for 63 yards over the last 3 games. KC is 8th in rushing % for the season, and I think Andy Reid grinds this game out with his pass game still in flux. Hunt is the feature guy and it's not close.

This is probably only going up so we'll play it early as Tampa Bay's Cade Otton is clearly target No. 1 with the Bucs missing Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Otton is the first Tampa Bay tight end ever with at least eight catches in back-to-back games. He has been targeted a total of 20 times in those two.

The Buccaneers have gone over in their last five outings. It's going to be difficult for the Chiefs to not score over 30 against the Buccaneers because everyone does. Every game the Chiefs seem to execute the same exact game plan under Patrick Mahomes, play conservatively, short passes, and run lots of time off the clock frustrating the opponents. It's worked 12 straight times. With Baker Mayfield throwing the ball I think It will be hard to keep the game under the total so the over looks attractive.

These are two teams headed in different directions. Baker Mayfield has thrown 7 picks his last 3 games and faces an elite D on road. Bucs D is falling apart, allowing over 33/G the last 4. Injuries sapping offense of explosion and ability to play from behind and TB RZ D slipping. KC scored 26+ 3 in a row and has 2 double-digit wins over NFC this season. Mahomes 13-5 ATS vs NFC since '21 and 8-2 ATS vs NFC last 10 as a 7.5+ point favorite. Todd Bowles has to sellout with blitz to get pressure; never a good idea vs Mahomes. Travis Kelce been better the last month, too.