Pittsburgh's weekly prime-time appearance sees the Steelers as nearly a TD favorite against a downtrodden Giants club that just lost its best offensive lineman, Even so, New York's own pass rush should provide a challenge to veteran QB Russell Wilson, who used to be one of the game's best dual threats but is now strictly a pocket passer. In what rates to be an ugly grinder, the value lies in taking the points.

This line is significant and likely an overreaction to Russell Wilson destroying the overrated Jets, but it’s not like the Giants are any better. The Steelers have advantages at quarterback and coach. Their strong DL will eat against an injured OL, and their aggressive secondary should limit Malik Nabers enough where he does not break the game open. New York has scored 10 combined points the last two weeks, and Pittsburgh’s D is better than both units. While this is the Steelers' largest spread – and the Giants are 3-0 ATS when underdogs of 5.5 points or more – the tide has turned too drastically for each team to rely on that singular statistic. Don’t love the price, but I want 6 on my side.

The Giants have been a team total ATM machine. And I don’t think either team comes out flying. We need 3 TDs or 2 TDs and 2 FGs. Under

Justin Fields is on the bench. That means more opportunities for the RB room. Plus, Harris is their guy. Let’s roll with Najee

As a lifelong fan of the Giants who bets against them often, I actually think this is a sneaky spot for the lowly G-Men to pull off the upset. I am not a believer in this 5-2 Steelers team, nor am I a believer in their decision to switch to QB Russell Wilson. I don't think one good performance against a disappointing Jets team is worth a -280 price tag this week (73.6% implied probability). They have dropped games to the Colts and Cowboys, and have scored 20 or less points in 4 games this season. 98% of the betting handle is on Steelers ML... this seems like a prime let-down spot for Pittsburgh. I'll play the house and take a chance on the Giants.

Russell Wilson took over the starting job last week and unlocked George Pickens, who had an amazing 44-yard catch as well as a 37-yard grab. He also drew a 29-yard pass interference. Wilson's knack for throwing the deep ball meshes well with Pickens, who can beat Giants corner Deonte Banks.

We are IN on the Russ train. The Steelers upgrade at QB (both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields) has resulted in a +5 increase in pts per game vs last season from 18 to 23. And the model has the Steelers projected to go over their team total of 21.5 again tonight. Wilson still has the great deep ball so the Steelers should be able to run the ball, soften up the Giants pass rush and then hit them deep through the air. PIT's defense has allowed just 28 pts total the last 2 weeks, look for their offense to control time of possession and cover this spread.

The Giants are a mess offensively, and will be playing against arguably the best defense in the NFL on Monday night. New York has scored a total of 10 points in its last two games against defenses that aren't on Pittsburgh's level. Unless something unexpected happens (kick/punt return TD or defensive TD) I can't see the Giants finishing with more than 14 points.

The Giants and the Steelers have two things in common in this matchup; fantastic defensive lines, and injured offensive lines. The Giants remain without OL Andrew Thomas, and the Steelers are still without Center Zach Frazier. I expect the Steelers to go run-heavy early, and the Giants to stack the box often in attempt to improve their weak run defense. I don't see either of these QB's getting out to a fast start. Play 1H Under.

Russell Wilson impressed in his season debut against the Jets, but I believe it was fools gold. The Jets secondary was rattled with injury and just played uncharacteristically bad. The Giants secondary is shaping up behind standout rookie DB Dru Phillips. The Giants will return elite DT Dexter Lawrence to their defensive line, which already brings tremendous QB pressure. The Steelers remain without top-tier center Zach Frazier. This edge at the line could help New York shore up their vulnerable run defense. I still think Pittsburgh is overrated. This is a spot that you fade Mike Tomlin is a large favorite (57-73-1 ATS when a favorite of more than a FG), and you back Daniel Jones as a road underdog (18-9 ATS).

We've heard the narratives and know the stats; Daniel Jones and primetime performances go together like oil and water. This for me boils down to price and I can't get to the Steelers being this heavy a favorite even with a banged up Giants OL. Pittsburgh closed +2.5 just 8 days ago versus a downtrodden Jets team. The Giants aren't dynamic offensively but what they do well is shorten games dragging their opponents into a slog. Their strength has been a dynamic pass rush; against a makeshift Steelers OL, there's a clear path for this to be a tight game throughout. Pittsburgh hasn't closed as more than a 3/3.5 point favorite all season so this is a new experience being expected to win by margin.

This is a great spot for Harris and the Steelers' rushing attack. The Giants are allowing 138.1 rushing yards per game this season, and Pittsburgh is coming off consecutive dominant performances on the ground. Jaylen Warren will steal some carries from Harris, but I still expect the former Alabama star to carry the ball at least 15 times. If he does, he should hit this over comfortably.

Pittsburgh has been strong against the spread in 2024, and I expect that trend to continue on Monday night. I'm not a Russell Wilson believer by any means, and I think he should open his potential Hall of Fame induction speech by thanking Marshawn Lynch and the 'Legion of Boom' for getting him there, but I do think he's better than Daniel Jones. The Steelers are at the very least, a top-three defense in the NFL, and I expect them to smother the Giants' struggling offense. I expect Najee Harris to continue rolling, and George Pickens to continue to be a game-changer on the outside. I could see this game turning into a blowout, but at the very minimum Steelers win by 7+.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have won and covered the last three meetings with the New York Giants and their 5-2 against the spread and straight up this season with the new quarterback taking over as Russell Wilson emphatically stole the job in the last game. The Giants come in with the 28th ranked offense that has a 25th ranked running game. Who needs Saquon Barkley? The Steelers rank 3rd with a +9 turnover ratio. They've only given the ball up four times on the season. This is also a primetime game where Daniel Jones is 1-14 in his career. Steelers to cover.

Hard to fade this guy right now, and no need to start now against this Giants road D. The Giants defense is allowing 6.0 YPC on the road this season. Najee Harris' rush line is 15.5 so the over is based on a 4 YPC projection...Harris has 208 yards on his past 35 carries. On top of that, the deep ball threat that Russell Wilson provides will prevent from having 8 defenders in the box. Look for PIT to go up big and hand the ball off plenty to Harris, our model has him projected for 84 yards.

I expect the Giants to have some issues moving the ball and scoring points on Monday night. This is a spot where I expect an ugly start, with the Steelers leading by 1-2 scores after the first quarter.

Defensively, the Giants have been a pleasant surprise this season. I wouldn't call them a championship-caliber group by any means, but they've held their own. When it comes to this matchup, it's hard for me to see the Giants keeping the Steelers under 21 points. I'm not buying the Russell Wilson hype, but he is a better fit for what Pittsburgh does than Justin Fields. George Pickens is one of the best young wide receivers in the game, and I expect him to shine on MNF. Steelers should score 24+ here.

It's looking like Tyrone Tracy has established himself as the best running back in this committee and that was illustrated when he out-touched Devin Singletary last week. I still expect Singletary to get between 6-8 carries, but against this Steelers run defense, I don't project him to find a ton of success. Singletary's total rush yards prop is only 30.5 and that number certainly contemplates a lack of explosive runs from Singletary.

Only 5.5 left on our board. New York could be down three cornerbacks tonight, and we all know about Daniel Jones in primetime (1-14 overall, 0-7 on MNF). Pittsburgh has won 21 straight MNF home games, and its offense looked rejuvenated last week under Russell Wilson. The Steelers are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 primetime games.

Even Hoda and Al Roker know the Giants offense has stalled completely in recent losses to the Bengals and Eagles, prompting news anchors and others to wonder about the futures at Met Life of both QB Daniel Jones and especially HC Brian Daboll. Meanwhile, Mike Tomlin again looks very smart for switching to Russell Wilson at QB, who looked a lot more poised in the pocket than Justin Fields likely would have in last week's 37-15 Sunday Night romp past the Jets. Tomlin's defense as usual looks robust and can envision the Giants offense once again becoming disjointed as TJ Watt and company bring the heat on Jones, who has been known to panic. We're surprised this price isn't higher. Play Steelers

The Steelers run the ball at the second-highest rate, 53.2 percent of the time. They're facing a Giants' defense giving up an NFL-high 5.4 yards per carry. With Russell Wilson replacing Justin Fields, there are more carries to go around. Najee Harris is coming off back-to-back 100-yard games and he's getting in and out of his cuts quicker than he did last year. In Pittsburgh's five wins, Harris has cleared this prop total four times. He's playing for a contract and no one wants to tackle him. Look for Pittsburgh to give Harris at least 16 carries Monday. night.

I'm going to buy the renewed intensity with which Harris seems to be running. I'm going to buy that with Jaylen Warren getting healthier and maybe about to cut into his workload for good, that Harris is making a stand. He's gone over 100 yards in 2 straight, this OL may be gelling some and the NYG are last in yards/carry allowed. Can't let the Giants pass rush get going and this big back is built to attack this defense. With Russ Wilson completing some deep balls now, you can't sell out to stop the run like teams tended to do with Justin Fields under center. I see Mike Tomlin leaning into a simple, physical approach at home in prime time.

Neither of these teams start fast, the Giants know Daniel Jones never wins in prime time, so expect a very conservative approach for then without their starting LT. Russ Wilson missed a lot of time and still working through the kinks. PIT will want to run ball and bleed clock against best pass rushing DL in the NFL. Steelers have 4 offensive TDs in first half all season and NYG have just 6th. They are 25th and 26th in 1st half scoring, both have negative scoring differential in first half and 23rd and 24th in points/drive in first half. Steelers probably pull away late but Giants D can keep it close and much it up for a few quarters at least.

This line was Steelers -3.5 on the lookahead, and typically we'd be looking to fade such a big move from that number. But I'm going to pile on the Steelers while I can still get a number under 6 at FanDuel. Their top-tier edge rushers should give the Andrew Thomas-less Giants O-line the same issues the Eagles did, and I can't see New York going on the road in primetime and scoring many points as a result. That pass rush also makes it tougher for the Giants to backdoor cover if outside the number. Before last week, I'd balk at playing the Steelers to cover a big number, but the passing attack looked better with Russell Wilson at QB, so let's count on them scoring.