This feels like a coin flip. With the spread teetering on 3, the market is treating it as such. I was fully set on the Vikings until Cooper Kupp *and* Puka Nacua were both activated. Coupled with Blake Cashman being absent for Minnesota, that's an opportunity for Los Angeles to move the ball in the middle of the field. The problem is the Rams OL -- among the worst in the league -- needing to hold up against a ferocious Minnesota defense. Will Matthew Stafford have enough time to find them? Plus, the Vikings are immensely well balanced behind a resurgent Sam Darnold. Barring a significant turnover disparity, Minnesota should pull it off. The best way to play L.A. would be on the live line.

This number has hit in all but one of Minnesota's six games this season. Furthermore, the Vikings have scored 10 or more first quarter points themselves in 4 of 6 games this season. I expect that trend to continue on TNF.

In my opinion, there has been a bit of an overreaction to the news that Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are going to play on Thursday night. The Vikings, despite their 5-1 record, are being somewhat overlooked. Minnesota has three high-end receivers (including the best in the NFL in Justin Jefferson), a Pro Bowl running back (Aaron Jones), and quarterback Sam Darnold has been playing like the player he was expected to be when he was drafted in 2018. I don't love betting against Sean McVay as a home underdog, but I simply like the Vikings much more than the Rams right now.

My biggest concern here is Sean McVay out-scheming his former pupil (Kevin O'Connell). Nonetheless, the Rams have struggled defensively, and this game may be the deciding factor as to whether or not the front office decides to tear the team down and start over. The Vikings have scored more points against much better defenses at various other points this season. I expect 4+ touchdowns for Minnesota on TNF.

Puka Nacua is back on the field for the Rams tonight ... probably. He's been activated and if he does get into the game, I can't see him playing more than a handful of snaps or getting a lot of looks in the passing game. So hanging a number for him at all means we should be looking to the Under as a goose egg is very much a possibility, while his ceiling isn't going to be much higher than this number.

The path for the Rams to win this game is through the run as the Vikings rush defense is solid and Kyren hasn't shown as much efficiency as of late. Add that Matthew Stafford has his full compliment of weapons and I think we see a lot of short area passes as he tries to beat the blitz. I'm expecting a neutral or negative game script and for Stafford to sling it.

Mundt won't be mistaken for Travis Kelce or George Kittle, but he should see a handful of targets as the top tight end in Minnesota's offense on Thursday night. Mundt has recorded two or more receptions in five of six games this season. If that trend continues against the Rams, he should go over here.

We've only seen efficiency from Ty Chandler once this season and I'm counting on him to be inefficient yet again on limited carries. Aaron Jones should get the bulk of the rushing attempts in this one, but Chandler is expected to get 5-6 carries. I'm looking him to fall short of this longest rush line and I could see him falling short of the rush attempt prop as well if newly acquired Cam Akers steals a couple.

The Vikings saw the magic dust of their undefeated start finally run dry in a 31-29 loss to the Lions following two other close calls. Now, they face a Rams club that has seen three of its four losses come by 6 points or fewer and need a win to keep pace in the mediocrity-heavy NFC West. The return of WR Cooper Kupp should provided the offense with a needed spark and there's value with the points against a Minnesota club that is a regression candidate.

The Vikes D is a premium unit. And while the Rams are healthy/healthier I’m still not sold that this will be a game that lights up the scoreboard. Total is too high

Kupp's status has been in question leading up to Thursday, and it has since been reported that he will play against the Vikings. Fellow wide receiver Puka Nacua is also set to make his return on Thursday night. Kupp has been the subject of trade rumors this week, and there was even talk of him sitting out this game to avoid any potential injuries. While Kupp is capable of easily going over this number, I don't see it happening on TNF. Nacua will get plenty of targets, and if this game is decided late, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rams pull Kupp to keep him healthy. At 6.5, you get a nice cushion, and the plus-money price is an added bonus.

The expected return of the Rams' one-two WR punch, long-injured Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, means the offense could be back to its old, scary tricks. QB Matthew Stafford has been forced to scramble beyond his comfort zone while searching for open receivers. Problem solved with this pair. Two of the last three Vikings games have produced 60 points. Who'da thunk an offense pilot by Sam Darnold would rate among the league's best? Weather conditions are ideal for enough scoring to push the count close to 50, if not past it.

Matthew Stafford might have his top two receivers back tonight in some role, and his volume of passing should be up as the Vikings face the most pass attempts in the league. They also have the most INTs in the league (11) and their pass rush should be able to make things difficult for Stafford, who has thrown picks in three straight games. Hopefully we get the Rams playing from behind and have several opportunities to cash on this one.

Sean McVay & Kevin O’Connell’s familiarity with each other may create some unexpected gridlock. Minnesota’s defense ranks #1 overall in defensive DVOA. Although LA’s defense has struggled thus far, they seem due for positive regression on this short week. Teams are 0-4 SU & ATS the week after facing the Detroit Lions. That stat may be no coincidence, the Lions are a physical club that can make it hurt to play them. Darnold has impressed, but he isn’t elite. The Rams play a ton of zone defense too which could limit the explosive plays. The Rams are desperate for a win to buoy their season hopes, so I expect their defense to play with max effort and help this game stay Under the total.

I'm backing the home dogs to find a way. The Rams are in desperation mode, and will likely be playing this Week 8 game with "must-win" effort. Although their defense has struggled, their secondary has quietly gotten better since benching veteran CB Tre'Davious White. The Rams also rank 5th in QB pressure rate. Vikings QB Sam Darnold has been terrific thus far, but his passing metrics drop off a cliff when he is under duress. On paper, the Vikings should handle the Rams... but I have a sneaky feeling Minnesota is due for a let down. Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell learned under Sean McVay as his offensive coordinator. McVay knows his schemes, and could have the coaching edge at home here.

He is their bellcow and even in a short week, expect a heavy load here. He got 22 carries in a big spot vs the Saints on TNF in Dec and I expect Sean McVay to ride him here as well. The Rams OL has issues, especially vs the blitz, and they are facing a devious blitz scheme. Getting heavy and staying heavy vs this front - like Detroit last week - is the way to go. Williams is over this total in 5 of 6 games this season and if this game is as close as the spread suggests, running clock and keeping MIN offense off field is imperative. McVay is conservative at his core. Williams has 20+ carries in 7 straight at home.

In a pretty big surprise, it appears that Puka Nacua may actually return from the injured list tonight -- we knew Cooper Kupp was going to. Think most people expected Week 9 for Nacua. So now I have to take the 3 while it's still available as I believe the Vikings are somewhat frauds. Sam Darnold is regressing. The team's leading tackler is out. And clubs the week after facing the physical Lions this year are 0-4 SU & ATS.

Time to sell on the Vikings? A bit harsh, perhaps, after a narrow 31-29 loss to the Lions, but we have seen this many times in the NFL where a a quick start begins go sideways. Sam Darnold has already gone beyond the call of duty at QB for the Vikes...can he continue his early pace? Remember, save the Arizona loss when strafed by injuries, the Rams have been competitive in every other game, including against all of the other NFC North entries. LA lost each of those, but was close enough to win each, and there is word that Cooper Kupp might reappear in the Rams lineup, which will be good news for Matthew Stafford. Three points not insignificant here! Play Rams

I have the Vikings as 4.2-point road favorites on the short week. While Cooper Kupp obviously helps the Rams, I'm not sure how much he can contribute when the real issue is the Rams' offensive line, which ranks 31st in the league in pass blocking. Home-field advantage is minimal in Los Angeles, and the indoor environment is comfortable for this Vikings offense. Lay the road chalk here.

The Minnesota Vikings look to bounce back after their first loss of the season following a 5-0 start. Cooper Kupp could be back for the Rams but TJ Hockenson should also be back for the Vikings. The thing that stands out for the Vikings is they have 11 interceptions in six games which is most in the NFL. It's an opportunistic defense. Last week it was a battle with the Lions and they hung with them until the last second when field goal beat them. It's a different mindset with the Vikings than in years past. The Vikings score 28 points a game and the Rams allow 25. The Vikings are also second in the NFL in sacks with four per game. Vikings to win.

Without linebacker Blake Cashman in Week 7, the Vikings' normally stout run defense gave up 142 rushing yards in the loss to Detroit. Cashman (toe) hasn't practiced this week and the absence of Minnesota's leading tackler would aid the Rams' run game, which also could benefit from the return of offensive lineman Joe Noteboom. Cooper Kupp's return is another huge boost. The Rams' defense is improving and Sean McVay has been money on short-week Thursday games (6-1 with the loss coming by one point to Seattle in 2019).

Minnesota blitzes more than any team, and blitzing can often lead to either big plays or picks for the rushed opposing QB. The Vikings lead the league with 11 interceptions, while Stafford has thrown at least one in three straight games.

Cooper Kupp (ankle) has not played since Week 2, but he practiced last week and almost suited up in Week 7. I see him getting a full complement of snaps as Matthew Stafford's favorite target. The Vikings are stingy against the run, with teams passing against Minnesota an NFL-high 69 percent of the time. With the Rams potentially in catch-up mode, look for Stafford to pepper Kupp with targets. Kupp drew 21 targets in the season opener and then six targets before getting hurt in the Week 2 loss at Arizona.

Jefferson has a receiving TD in every game but one this season and he is facing a ripe opponent here. Rams defense has plenty of issues, and getting to the QB is a problem. Sam Darnold is finding Jefferson all over the field and the Rams haven't seen many upper echelon receivers in a while. Rams are also vulnerable to giving up chunk yards and few can score from long range like this guy. Jefferson has 5 TDs in his last 5 road starts.

Every starting RB to face the Rams this season has cruised over this number, with LA without Aaron Donald and going with a young and cheap DL. Josh Jacobs running 19 times for 73 yards is the closest call in 6 games. Feature backs averaging 19 rushes for 91 yards vs Rams. Short week gives me a little pause, but Jones is in great form and should get explosive runs here. Jones has 93+ rushing in 4 of the last 5 games he's finished (left early in London with hamstring issue). Rams are 29th in EPA vs RB rushes and 26th in success rate and have to respect the Vikings premier passing attack, so stacking the box will be tricky.

The Rams are so beat up, and on a very short week give me the deeper team, and the one that is 5-1 ATS. Rams really struggling to move the ball and OL is probably going to get overwhelmed by the Vikings and Brian Flores blitz happy ways. Minnesota’s offense is well balanced and Sam Darnold doesn’t have to fear the pass rush or coverage of a Rams D that has struggled across the board. Quality offenses have shown they can put up 30+ in the Rams. Vikings are 10-5-4 ATS on road since start of 2022. Rams are 9-9-1 ATS at home in that span. Aaron Jones looked explosive after hamstring scare. Big factor here. Road favorites on a tear last 3 weeks

The Vikings are coming off a last-minute heartbreaking divisional loss, but I believe they'll regroup quickly and roll here. The Rams barely hung on against a Raiders offense with no receivers, running game or quarterbacks, and the offense was just 2 of 10 on third down with 259 yards of offense. Even if Cooper Kupp is back, I don't see Matthew Stafford having a lot of success against a top-tier Minnesota defense that can bring pressure better than anyone L.A. has seen to date. The Rams defense, which has struggled all year, goes from defending Tre Tucker and DJ Turner to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. I can see Minnesota scoring 30+ and winning running away.