He is their drive finisher and with the Bills skill guys beat up and him lacking key talent around him, expect Allen to take matters into his own hands in the RZ tonight. He is coming off his worst game in a long time and facing a passing D that has given him fits. But he's tended to keep the ball himself in close games vs this D and we are getting value now for something that cashed basically weekly in the second half of last season. With 4 games without hitting paydirt, I expect positive regression here. Allen hasn't gone 5 in a row without a rushing score since 2021.

If you haven't noticed yet, I expect the Jets' offense to be much better with Nathaniel Hackett NOT calling plays. There is simply too much talent on this group for them to be averaging 18.6 points per game. The Bills are a solid defensive team, but they have let three teams score well over this number in 2024. The plus-money price here is a nice bonus.

We finally got a glimpse of what the Aaron Rodgers-Garrett Wilson combination could look like in Week 5. With Nathaniel Hackett being removed as play caller, I expect the Jets to be a much more explosive offensive football team. The Bills gave up 331 passing yards to the Texans in their last game, and while Rodgers may not get there, I do see this as a spot where he finishes with 250+ yards, going comfortably over this number.

Zuerlein is on the tail end of his career, but he remains one of the best kickers of his generation. The attempts haven't consistently been there for Zuerlein this season, but I attribute a lot of that to the inept play calling of Nathaniel Hackett. I expect the Jets to be much more effective on offense tonight, which should give Zuerlein more opportunity. Getting this pick and this price is a nice value.

I don't love the price here, but Bass has had two attempts in every game this season, and this is a game where I see the kickers getting plenty of work. Bass is currently connection on 80% of his attempts. I love what Josh Allen can do in the red zone, but the Jets are stingy. I expect 3+ field goal attempts for Bass on MNF. If that proves to be the case, he'll go over here.

The Jets have an elite secondary featuring two of the best corners in the league. Sauce Gardner may get a lot of the acclaim, but DJ Reed is PFF's number one rated corner this season. The Jets are exceptional at covering the boundaries and that is where Keon Coleman primarily operates. The rookie WR has struggled this season.

We might as well pass on taking +1 and get a little ML value in what appears to be a prime spot for the Jets to defeat their divisional rival. The Bills are ailing with RB James Cook and WR Khalil Shakir both questionable, and they could struggle to move the ball against a stout Jets defense. The coaching shake-up with New York should spark at least a short term boost in its performance level, and first place in the AFC East is in sight with a win Monday.

Jets OC Nathaniel Hackett has been stripped of his play calling duties... hallelujah! Jets fans must be rejoicing. This offense has lacked creativity and rhythm under Hackett. Now, passing game coordinator Todd Downing will take over responsibilities, but really it will mostly be Aaron Rodgers running his own show. What a dream for Rodgers, independence! I expect this to create a more free-flowing Jets offense, and for their star WR Garrett Wilson to be the beneficiary. The Bills secondary has played quite well to start the year, but I don't think it is sustainable. Look for Rodgers and Wilson to be on the same page tonight. I see them connecting in the end zone for a big moment.

Bills QB Josh Allen has yet to throw an interception this season, yet oddsmakers favor it happening tonight. Allen is likely to throw his first pick of the year against this fantastic Jets secondary. The Jets defensive line has also increased it's QB pressure rate, which could create some ill-advised "hero ball" throws from Allen. This rag-tag Bills WR corps impressed for the first three weeks, but I don't think they will be able to get consistent separation against the likes of New York CBs Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed. If the Bills are in a negative game script, Allen is likely to force a bad throw.

I will continue to bet 1U on every primetime Under. Results are positive on the season thus far, and I feel strongly we will profit with this system by season's end. Primetime Unders continue to trend up. I think we will see a highly motivated Jets team play excellent defense tonight, and keep Josh Allen and the Bills offense in check.

Yes, Bills-Jets didn't clear 40 points in either matchup last season, it is rare that we see a Buffalo game where the "total" doesn't at least clear 40 points. Such has been the case this season, with the lowest scoreline the 41 in Miami, when the Dolphins lost Tua Tagovailoa during the game. Sure, a week of turmoil with the Jets, though we can't see the demotion of OC Nathaniel Hackett as a downgrade. Downing takes over the play-calling tonight and cannot do any worse trying to extract something from Aaron Rodgers. The Bills remain potentially dynamic on offense with Josh Allen at the controls. As their games usually reach the 40s, "over" doesn't seem the worst idea tonight at Met Life. Play Bills-Jets "Over"

Tyler Conklin comes into Monday Night dealing with a nagging hip injury, against a Bills defense that's slowly getting bodies back. Yes, Matt Milano remains down but Terrel Bernard returned last week and all signs point to Taylor Rapp's return at safety tonight as well. Combine the Bills' defensive reinforcements with a Jets team that could go more run-heavy under Todd Downing's playcalling, and we've got a nice under-recipe from a game script standpoint. We'll fade recent form with Conklin, in which he's gone over this total in two of three games, and sell at the market peak.

Breece Hall has not had fewer than four targets in any game. He's facing a Bills' defense that gives up 7.2 catches and 62.4 receiving yards per game to opposing RBs -- both tops in the NFL. Look for the Jets to get Hall heavily involved, both as a rusher and receiver, under new playcaller Todd Downing.

The Bills haven't been able to stop the run of late and new Jets coach Jeff Ulbrich says he is committed to a run-heavy offense under new play-caller Todd Downing. I dislike Aaron Rodgers about as much as humanly possible but this sure feels like a potential big game from him off an embarrassing performance in Week 5 and his role in getting Robert Saleh fired and former OC Nathaniel Hackett demoted. Rodgers hasn't been a home dog often in his career but has thrived in those games.

We are asking an average game of Braelon Allen. Since establishing a clear role in Week 2 he’s gone over with 23, 13, 12, and 15 receiving yards. With the Bills pass rush, we think Aaron Rodgers will avoid pressure by scampering himself and dumping the ball off to the RBs. Allen averages 9 yards per reception, so there is a chance we could hit this with just one reception. The Model has him projected for 14 yards.

This team has to protect Aaron Rodgers. We anticipate them looking more to a 50/50 pass/rush tonight utilizing their backs. The Bill's pass rush has not been able to execute because they were playing from behind the past 2 weeks. When the Bills get an early lead and/or are in a close game (first 3 weeks) they had 11 sacks. Look for pressure on Rodgers tonight, coupled with a heavy run game. The Model makes the number 195.

Aaron Rodgers had a rare three-INT game last time out and got his head coach fired and offensive coordinator buddy fired, so you know he's probably laser-focused tonight. I also tend to think the Jets' offensive game-plan under their new play-caller is rather conservative/run-heavy against a Bills defense struggling to stop the run. Thus, fewer pass attempts. Rodgers only had one pick in the first four games.

The Jets have a sizable edge with their offensive line in the run game against Buffalo. Breece Hall and Braelon Allen should find success, which will open things up for Aaron Rodgers in the passing game. Injuries are piling up on the Buffalo side, especially with Khalil Shakir. Rodgers is still someone I’m interested in backing in a high-motivation, primetime spot.

The Jets have had a great defense all year and have had some tough matchups offensively. I don't expect the Jets offense to dominate by any means, but I do think they'll be able to move the ball on the ground versus a Bills defense that may be regressing and which has some injuries. If Khalil Shakir remains out, this is an even a better play, but I'm happy to take the +1.5 with the Jets at home. Expect a heavy dose of Breece Hall and Braelon Allen and a gritty and low scoring win from the Jets.

Bills linebacker Dorian Williams is a liability in coverage; he often gets taken off the field in clear passing situations. But when he's on the field, he's been hyper-efficient at making tackles, racking up double-digit tackles in four straight games. Last week, even with the return of Terrel Bernard, Williams played 78 percent of the snaps and notched 12 combined stops: a 20.8 percent tackle rate. Look for the Jets to emphasize the run more than they did under Nathaniel Hackett and for Williams to register at least eight combined tackles.

Because of injuries and departures at linebacker, the Bills are giving up an NFL-high 7.2 catches and 62.4 receiving yards to opposing running backs. Last week it was Houston's Dare Ogunbowale catching six passes for 57 yards vs. Buffalo. I'm expecting the Jets to give Breece Hall plenty of opportunities in the passing game.

Nathaniel Hackett is out as the Jets play-caller, which might be worth at least one score for the Gang Green. Josh Allen is capable of lighting up the scoreboard on the other side, and the Bills' defense is banged up. I see this as a 27-24 type of game, which would hit this over comfortably.

No sense in waiting for this line to meander to a field goal. Jets QB Aaron Rodgers appears recovered from his ailments. Bills WR Khalil Shakir, Josh Allen's preferred target, is iffy. Teams playing their first game after in-season coaching changes, as the Jets are, have won 12 of the past 23 outright -- usually as underdogs. Most of all, Buffalo must travel for its third consecutive game. The nine most recent teams to do so are 8-19 in those three-game stretches -- and the Bills dropped their previous two roadies. The coaching switch should result in an enthusiastic home crowd for this Monday nighter.

I am already on Jets +2.5 (see full analysis there) and I like them on ML at +120 here. I don't believe the Bills deserve to be road favorites, and I expect the Jets to play hard for brand new head coach Jeff Ulbrich. Ulbrich immediately stripped Jets OC Nathaniel Hackett of play calling duties, which I am a big fan of. Hackett has done a whole lot of nothing with his offenses in the past two seasons. If pass game coordinator Todd Downing can call a halfway decent game, I expect the Jets offense to improve. Another heavy public side in primetime too... Bills ML has over 80% of the bets and money. I'll fade that.

I like backing teams the week after they fired their head coach. Think back to Antonio Pierece's Raiders last season. Teams often rally for the new guy, and play rejuvenated football with a newfound sense of motivation. Since 2003, teams that have canned their head coach are 22-16 ATS, and 17-21 SU the following week. That record may not look impressive, but consider that these teams are almost always the underdog that the public perceives to be in "panic mode." The Bills started the season hot, but this rag-tag WR corps has come back to earth with Khalil Shakir sidelined. Now they must face the Jets secondary that is #1 overall in coverage grades. I'm expecting Aaaron Rodgers to deliver a vintage performance here.

In the last two weeks, the old regime called 108 pass plays and just 33 Run plays. The new regime will be less Rodgers centric. That means I project 23 RB carries. 15.5 to Hall. Over

The Jets enter a new era with Jeff Ulbrich as interim head coach, and with reports indicating he's a respected and well-liked figure among players, it's possible there's an Antonio Pierce-like boost for the team (though the fired HCs couldn't be less similar). The Jets defense has been elite and could be facing a Bills unit without Khalil Shakir and James Cook with both dealing with injuries, and with Josh Allen coming off a 9-for-30 performance, I have no confidence in the Bills to have a good offensive day here. If Todd Downing gives the offense any kind of a spark, the Jets should win this game, but I'll take the points on a spread I think should be pick 'em.

The Jets should get a boost not only from Robert Saleh's firing, but from seeing interim coach Jeff Ulbricht take away play-calling duties from Nathaniel Hackett. They'll also benefit from playing a Bills offense that could be missing several key playmakers due to injury, including Khalil Shakir and James Cook. Josh Allen has been intercepted six times in his last four meetings with New York. In a game that should go down to the wire, back the desperate Jets.

The Bills badly need this game, and if anything they haven't been using the QBs legs enough, especially as injuries struck WRs. Allen is over this in 5 of his last 7 games and 7 of the last 11. He has yet to run 10 times in a game this season but I wouldn't be shocked if that came here. Allen has played 6 career one-score games against the Jets; he has at least 36 rushing yards in all of them. He has struggled throwing ball vs Jets in his career. His left hand should be feeling better by now. Time to do whatever it takes to end their losing streak.

Jets offense is total mess and really only cashed in last week when gifted opportunity by the special teams or defense. The week before they did even less. The hits are already making their marginal QB even more pouty and limited than he already was. Aaron Rodgers comes back from London looking beat. The Bills have slowed down since facing some decent defenses and without game-breaking receivers. Bad time to face a solid Jets D. Six of the last eight meetings went under (avg 39.5 points), and three of the last four in NY. Bills 8-3 to the under on road since start of ’23 and Jets are 7-4 to the under at home (avg total of 34.6 points. I don’t see explosive plays here.