This is a math game. Oddsmakers are projecting 34 pass attempts for a 72% Joe Burrow. Ja'Marr Chase accounts for 25% of the team's receptions, which would be 6.3. On top of that, we have a Giants defense that allows the fourth highest completion percentage in the league and especially struggles with wide receiver one.

On the surface, this would appear to be a no-brainer play with the Bengals, but their horrendous defense makes trusting them tough when favored by more than a field goal on the road. Helping sooth concerns is the Giants being without their top weapons (by far) in Malik Nabers and Devin Singletary. Joe Burrow should also benefit from a cleaner pocket with Kayvon Thibodeaux on IR. New York’s defense has been solid this season, but Cincinnati might be the best offense it has faced yet – especially with Burrow angry after seeing last week’s effort wasted. The desperate, more-talented team should win going away on Sunday night.

Ja'Marr Chase has amassed 396 receiving yards over the past three games, with 25 targets in that span. This is another great matchup against a Giants' defense that struggles vs. No. 1 receivers. With their season on the line, look for the Bengals to feed their star and for Chase to break tackles after the catch.

This is it for The Bengals. If they lose they go 1-5 and will not make the playoffs. If they win, it makes them 2-4 with a slim chance of making it. It's a must-win game and in the last three games they played, they've scored 33 or more but lost to Washington and by three to Baltimore last week. They don't have any more wiggle room. The Giants come off a big win against the Seahawks in Seattle. The Giants defense played well but I think they're content with that win and the Bengals offense will be too much for this game situation. Bengals win.

The Bengals have averaged a whopping 39 ppg in the past three outings. Though two were Cincy losses, the Giants lack the offensive oomph to match them score for score, especially with WR Malik Nabers on the mend. All but one of the Giants' games have landed in the 30s -- for both teams. Another key absentee is NY pass rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, which could afford QB Joe Burrow oodles of time in the pocket. The Bengals (1-4) are in desperation mode and seem unlikely to let a most winnable game get away from them.

The "sharp play" appears to be Giants +3.5 in this spot, but I don't see it for New York. Perhaps many experts are high on them for their recent turnaround, but I believe it's fools gold. The Giants will be without RB Devin Singletary and key playmaker WR Malik Nabers. QB Daniel Jones is 1-14 SU and 6-9 ATS in night games. Bengals QB Joe Burrow is 23-11 ATS on the road, and is fantastic in the "bounce back spot" with a 16-7-1 ATS record following a loss. Very quietly, the Bengals have the 2nd most efficient offense in the NFL. The Giants won't be able to keep up. I'm not getting scared off Cincy because of the hook. Lay -3.5 on the road favorites.

The Bengals are a much better team than their 1-4 record would suggest. They let a potentially huge win slip through their fingers last week against the Ravens, and they probably should have beaten the Chiefs, Commanders, and Patriots. The Giants looked good in their win against Seattle last week, but they will be without Malik Nabers, Devin Singletary, and Kayvon Thibodeaux on SNF. Cincinnati is finding its groove offensively, and I don't see the Giants keeping up. Bengals by 7+.

Giants QB Daniel Jones has performed quite well over the past 3 weeks, posting passing yard totals of 236 against Cleveland, 281 against Dallas, and 257 against Seattle last week. Yet against a Bengals defense that has struggled early on, his pass yards total is set curiously low. In part, that is because Jones will not have Giants breakout rookie WR Mailk Nabers in this game. Jones' strong numbers have come against weakened defenses that were each missing multiple key pieces. I think oddsmakers set this low number correctly. The Bengals have solid Safeties that can limit explosive plays. I don't see a big night for Daniel Jones here.

It feels like this line is priced incorrectly. Chase Brown is a career 5.5 YPC runner but this line is priced as if he were a 4.5 YPC back. The model has over value on the yards DESPITE having him under 9.5 rush attempts, so if he gets the usage the odds makers have then he should cruise over. The Giants run defense is hit or miss, and with Zach Moss not 100% healthy, we should see good production from Brown.

The betting public is heavy on the Over, but the total is moving back down. The Giants remain without their best offensive weapon WR Malik Nabers, who was unable to clear concussion protocol. Although the Bengals defense has not performed well thus far, they have faced the Ravens, Chiefs, and the Commanders offenses in 3 of their first 5 games. They are better than what they've shown in the early portion of the season, and I believe in Cincy D coordinator Lou Anarumo to clean it up. Even if Burrow and the Bengals offense hums, I don't think the Giants will contribute their share to this total. I always like a Giants home Under.

We don't suggest overlooking the Giants at the moment. Ask the Seahawks, caught with their guards down and beaten by some New York big plays last weekend in Seattle. But a turnaround has been brewing for a few weeks for the G-Men, first with a win at Cleveland and then playing the Cowboys a lot closer than they did on either occasion last season. Daniel Jones is also more resembling his 2022 form and not last season when he was impeded by too many mistakes. Meanwhile, the 1-4 Bengals have been playing like a jinxed team, and not even 392 YP and 5 TDP from Joe Burrow could get them over the hump last week vs. the Ravens. Play Giants

The Giants have looked terrible at home so far this season and are without Malik Nabers, Devin Singletary, Kayvon Thibodeaux and even their punter. I kinda like seeing Joe Burrow fall on his face for some reason but he's also miles better than Daniel Jones. This is the season for the 1-4 Bengals. They could easily be 4-1.

Darius Slayton absolutely exploded in the absence of Malik Nabers last week and he gets another good matchup without Nabers on the field against the Bengals. What I liked about Slayton was that he enjoyed a ton of air yards, but also was locked in with Daniel Jones on the short area routes as well. The trust was clearly there between Jones and Slayton and I'm expecting that chemistry to pour over against the porous Bengals defense.

Unless they play Consistently from ahead or behind, the Giants throw the ball slightly more than 60% of their plays. (When Big Blue trails, they throw it even more.) Thus a typical game should yield 38 passes called with 3.75 scrambles/sacks, netting 34.25 attempts. If the Giants trail this should go even higher. So some value at 31.5 with basically no juice

The Giants put together an impressive road win over the Seahawks without Malik Nabers, and when coupled with a win in Week 3 then a competitive loss to the Cowboys in Week 4, the market seems to be buying in on Big Blue. But I expect New York's defense, which lost Kayvon Thibodeaux to injury, to have a lot of trouble slowing down a Bengals offense coming off a fantastic game against the Ravens. With the Bengals scoring 30+ in three straight, the Giants need a lot of points to keep up, and even with Nabers the offense has been hit or miss topping out at around 20-22 points. Love -3 if Nabers is ruled in but locking in now in case the line rises.

Bengals let one slip away against the Ravens last weekend but it was good to see their passing game/offense come to life. I would expect that carryover to this weekend vs the Giants who will be down one pass rusher in Kayvon Thibodeaux, which should be enough to help them cover this short spread.

The Bengals have produced 105 points in their last 3 games, and Joey B is why. He is playing near perfect football and will be able to handle this pass rush and make the Giants pay. He has 10 passing TDs in his last 3 games and this team doesn't run the ball all that well and finishes drives with the ball in the QBs hands. He has Ja"Marr Chase and Tee Higgins in good form. He has thrown for at least 2 TDs in every game this season. He's playing pissed off and he knows even 40 points might not be enough with his weak defense.

I'm buying pissed off Joe Burrow and an offense that might put up 600 yards here. He can find his hots and catch Giants blitzing. They aren't facing the mighty Ravens here and if they got a decent exchange on a FG Sun they would have beat the mighty Ravens. Giants haven't played anybody and while Bengals D definitely sucks, beat up Giants will provide a reprieve. Joey B is 10-4 ATS as a road favorite and has covered in 6 of last 7. Daniel Jones and the Giants have been horrible in prime time