The Raiders are without four starters in WR Davante Adams, RB Zamir White, RT Thayer Munford and LB Divine Deablo. Lot of distractions around the team too with Adams probably traded by next week. Don't love backing Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix that much, but the Denver defense is capable of pitching a home shutout.

The Broncos defense is legit, and of the four major sides in this game, it’s clearly the best of the bunch. Denver also enters with a clear coaching advantage in Sean Payton vs. Antonio Pierce, which is only furthered by the unrest in the Las Vegas locker room amid Davante Adams’ trade request. (He is also missing the game with an injury.) Gardner Minshew is going to be under pressure all game, and while Bo Nix has hardly been revelatory as a rookie, he has served as a decent game manager. Even with Maxx Crosby back, the Raiders are still quite injured and vulnerable to the Broncos’ rushing attack. This will be an ugly win for Denver.

The Broncos are somehow 2-2 following back-to-back road upsets of the Bucs and Jets. Even so, we're not laying points with a very limited offensive team against a division rival to whom they have lost 8 consecutive meetings.

Neither has lit the world afire in their respective 2-2 starts, but we sense looming distractions in the Vegas camp, especially with Davante Adams and his trade demands making headlines. The Raiders are also taking injuries, and Gardner Minshew is hardly tearing things up with only 3 TD passes to go along with 3 picks in 4 games. Denver's defense has been terrorizing in the Broncos' 2 game win streak, allowing just 16 points, and indeed conceding barley 9 ppg across the past three outings. Bo Nix hardly posting eye-popping stats at QB, but continues to hang in there and not get flustered. It's about time this 8-game series losing streak vs. the Raiders ends for the Broncos! Play Broncos

The Las Vegas Raiders have turmoil within the organization once again. It was this time a season ago that the falling out was nearing an end with Josh McDaniels. Antonio Pierce and the Raiders got away with a win last week against the Browns despite a poor first quarter down 10-0, and a fourth quarter they were completely outplayed. That plays into the hand of Sean Payton that has his team prepared for a four quarter battle. Take the home team here with the Broncos.

This is a great matchup for Raiders safety Trevon Moehrig, as the Broncos have been surrendering tackles to safeties at a very high rate. Look for Moehrig to clear this prop total for the fourth straight game.

The Broncos are back home after two eye-catching road wins, and they get an opponent ravaged by injuries. Seven pivotal Raiders will sit out, notably disgruntled WR Davante Adams, and pass rusher Maxx Crosby is questionable. While Denver's offense has sputtered, the D has been killer, ranking among league leaders in yards yielded per play and sacks per dropbacks. Rookie QB Bo Nix has taken awhile to acclimate himself, but he can take comfort in impressive protection. The sack rate is the lowest in the league.

Don't look now, but Denver is 2-2 on the season. I'm very impressed with this defense and I think Gardner Minshew is going to be under attack all game. Add all the missing pieces on the Raiders side and the lack of injuries on the Denver side and you've got a great mix for Denver to win this game and cover the short number. Denver has some issues moving the ball, but the Raiders rush defense is a weakness and I think the Broncos can get it done on the ground.

Despite his offense's relative ineptitude, Lutz has received multiple field goal opportunities in all four games thus far. He's hit this prop in three of them, missing his chance to do so last week in rainy conditions at the Meadowlands. Las Vegas allowed three successful FGs in each of their first three games. I'm confident that Lutz can hit this prop in the thin air of Denver again this week.

The Broncos defense had some help from the weather last week against the Jets, but there's no question it's a top-tier unit at this point. They've allowed less than 10 points per game the last three weeks while playing twice on the road and all against functional offenses better than this version of the Raiders without Davante Adams and with both starting tackles plus a guard playing at a high level missing practice to start the week. A healthier Raiders offense has only topped 300 yards once and it was against an awful Panthers D with most of the production coming in garbage time. Bank on them not scoring here.

The total has been dropping. Denver has been holding this opponent to 13.8 points per game, but their offense has been struggling. Bo Nix has only thrown one touchdown on the season and yet to have a game over 250 yards passing. The Raiders defense is allowing 349.5 total yards to their opponent on the road but with Nix struggling to convert on 3rd down and in the red zone, Denver will rely on their defense.

The Broncos defense has been elite this season, ranking 4th in defensive EPA per play. Raiders star WR Davante Adams may not play, but even if he does he'll be blanketed in coverage by shutdown corner Patrick Surtain. The Broncos pass rush has also been highly effective, and I see Raiders QB Gardner Minshew struggling to get comfortable against this defense. Meanwhile for the Broncos offense, rookie QB Bo Nix continues to struggle. Denver's team identity will be focused on establishing the run and shutting opposing offenses down. Over the past ten seasons, Denver is 48-29-1 to the Under at home. This won't be the last Broncos game that I bet goes Under the total.

The market is split on whether this spread should be 2.5 or 3, and although I hate laying points with a team I think has a terrible offense, I'm going to get in now before all the -2.5s are gone later in the week. While the Broncos offense may be bad, their defense is elite, leading the league in yards per play allowed. Even if Davante Adams can make it back, it's hard to see an ugly Raiders offense putting up many points in Denver. The Vegas defense is 30th in yards per rush, which will help take pressure off Bo Nix in the passing game and allow the Broncos to move the ball enough to cover here.

37 is a nice number as we need the winner to be in the 20s and neither team can really fall short. I simply don’t trust Denver’s offense, and I do trust their defense.

Both of these defenses are legit and DEN is top 5 legit. If Maxx Crosby is back, and Davante Adams sits another one out, all the better. Both QBs stink, neither team has explosive run game. Both coaches content to win 9-6. DEN is 11-5 to under in last 16 games and 11 of the last 16 games in this series have gone under. Their early-season game last year totaled 33. Antonio Pierce has coached 13 games and 7 have gone under this total. DEN is under in 5 of last 6 AFC West games and 6 of last 10 overall games at home. Broncos last 3 games are all 35 or less.

The Broncos return home with momentum after upsetting Tampa Bay and the Jets as huge road dogs. They are giving up 4.2 yards per play, second-fewest in the NFL. Over the past three games, excluding the opener in Seattle, Denver is giving up 3.9 yards per play. Vance Joseph's defense sacked Aaron Rodgers five times Sunday and held Jets' running backs to 38 yards on 18 carries. The Raiders have been up-and-down depending on the week. Las Vegas has beaten Denver eight straight times, but I like the streak to end Sunday. This spread will rise as the week progresses.