The Jets' elite corners are good to go for Thursday Night Football, which makes this a difficult matchup for Patriots wideouts. K.J. Osborn has yet to clear this prop through two weeks. With rookie Ja'Lynn Polk getting more involved, I see Osborn's role staying minimal (he was targeted twice in Week 2). Jacoby Brissett is getting rid of the ball fast and averaging 5.3 yards per attempt. Go Under.

New England is down two starters on the offensive line, I think they will be trailing and Stevenson is getting lots and lots of work.

The Jets have started slowly in their first two games. This has been their focus this week. I think gang green will score on one of their first two drives.. Meanwhile, New England is down TWO starting offensive lineman and will need a little time to gel

I see this game being kind of a snoozer with New England trying to control the clock and field position. I feel pretty good about the Jets covering here, and I don't believe this New England team is equipped to go on the road and perform well on a short week. I expect 10-14 points for New England in this game.

The total has gone under in five of the last six meetings between these two. New York is only averaging 181 passing yards per game thus far while the Patriots are averaging 122.5. New England’s defense has appeared to be more efficient than their offense. Since the Patriots have struggled passing, they’re going to run the ball as they’ve been averaging 177.5 rushing yards per game. Breece Hall is still coming back from an injury, so their running game isn’t 100% while Aaron Rodgers mobility isn’t back to full strength either.

The Patriots' offensive line is a mess heading into the Thursday night matchup, and that tells me it's going to be imperative to get the ball out of Jacoby Brissett's hands quickly. That should lead to more prominence of the running backs in the passing game, and Stevenson has dominated the targets over supposed receiving back Antonio Gibson. I also like Stevenson to have success in that role with C.J. Mosley either missing this game or less than 100 percent. I'm not ruling out a similar game to what Tony Pollard had against this defense last week with five catches and 40 yards.

This number stays inflated for no good reason. The under is 4-0 in Aaron Rodgers' past 4 games (where he played the full game) and 6-2 going back 8 games. Almost half of his pass completions this season have been to his RBs, which bodes for short passing yards. The model is willing to believe that the Jets will never have to abandon the run this game considering the spread. We project Rodgers for 195 yards in the air.

They might not be effective carries, but there are only so many options. With both teams being run first, we expect New England to stay within 1 score for at least 3 quarters and will only be in a “must pass” situation in maybe 25% of the simulations that the Jets win. There is an 85% chance the Patriots run the ball over 55% of the offensive plays, so expect Rhamondre Stevenson to get at least 60% of 30 rushes (18).

Antonio Gibson had 11 carries for 96 yards, last week in an overtime game against the Seahawks. I expect the Patriots to reward Gibson's success with some more touches on this short week. Patriots lead RB Rhamondre Stevenson has the third most carries of any RB in the league through two weeks. While we are sure to see another heavy dose of Stevenson tonight, Gibson will have his of opportunities too. Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo is giving this New England team an old-school identity with their run-heavy offense, and stout rush defense. The Patriots will try to win this game in the trenches, and I expect 35+ rush attempts from New England tonight. Gibson will be involved, he can surpass this low total.

Patriots QB Jacoby Brissett has yet to eclipse this current total of 165.5 this season, and I don't see it happening against the Jets. New York boasts an elite secondary, that has slightly underperformed to begin the year. I expect CB Sauce Gardner and the New York's defensive backs to lock down in coverage tonight, against a thin Patriots WR corps. Brissett has the league's 4th lowest aDOT, opting for safer short routes. The Patriots best chance of success against this Jets defense is on the ground. I expect New England's running backs to take the lion's share of the workload on offense. New England's offensive line injuries will also make pass protection difficult against this Jets front.

Since 2010, totals of lower than 40 on Thursday night games are 19-7 to the Under. This is another ideal primetime Under spot. The Patriots come into this short week fresh off of an overtime clash with the Seahawks. QB Jacoby Brissett was has been pressured at a high rate, and now the Patriots are dealing with multiple injuries on the offensive line. New England should look to make this a rock fight on the road, and lean on their run-heavy offense and their stout rush defense. Both QBs have a very low average depth of target, and both defenses sport top-tier defensive backs. Aaron Rodgers and the Jets offense remains a bit rusty on offense, and this New York's second straight short week.

There are significant injuries for both teams coming into a short week, but the offensive line injuries for the Patriots are probably the most concerning. This is going to be a low scoring affair for sure, but I think the Jets slowly pull away as this offense becomes more comfortable behind Aaron Rodgers who is now getting a third run at game action.

A much different feel here than recent Patriots-Jets matchups that invariably seemed to fall in New England's direction. Almost, it seemed, by providence, as Bill Belichick dominated this series, at one point winning 25 in a row (13-2 vs. line) before succumbing in the season finale last January. Now it's Jerod Mayo's New England, mostly slowing the pace of the games, with QB Jacoby Brissett taking few chances, RB Rhamondre Stevenson bucking for yardage, and the Mayo defense jamming the gearbox on foes. That's the sort of recipe that can keep New England in many games this season, as Cincinnati and Seattle have already found out. Can Aaron Rodgers succeed where Joe Burrow failed less than two weeks ago vs. the Pats? Play Patriots

The Patriots are a pass-funnel defense so I like Aaron Rodgers to be throwing a lot Thursday night. Through two weeks, Breece Hall has a 23.7 percent target share -- highest by any running back through two weeks in the past four years. He's averaging 45.5 receiving yards, continuing a trend that began late last season when his targets spiked. The Patriots just lost middle linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley to a season-ending injury, which could hurt defensive communication.

The Jets lost Jermaine Johnson to a torn Achilles at Tennessee, but 2023 first-rounder Will McDonald stepped up with three sacks and a 25 percent pressure rate. He lived up to the "game-wrecker" reputation he earned at Iowa State. Now he faces a Patriots O-line that is in shambles. The starting left side is out, and two other starters are questionable. That includes right tackle Mike Onwenu (wrist), who would line up opposite Johnson. Last Sunday vs. Seattle, Jacoby Brissett was sacked three times and hit six more times. Look for Johnson to notch at least half a sack.

The Jets just beat the Patriots in January for the first time in ages the last time they met now they get Aaron Rodgers to lead the arsenal in his first real game at home for the Jets fans. The first one lasted four snaps against the Bills last season, a win. This game will likely be Rodgers coming out party after two subpar performances, or as we used to call it, pre-season lumps. This will look like Rodgers that we remember. You can almost visualize the Jets having a playoff-type look to them in week 3. The defense is there and the offense is getting there. Rogers is the last step towards being a great team. We'll see that Rodgers this week. Jets cover.

The Jets come off a pair of tough road matchups to play their home opener on Thursday, and while I'm worried about the injuries to C.J. Mosley and Jermaine Johnson, I believe the Jets defense can scheme up enough pressure to overwhelm a beat-up Patriots O-line to limit scoring. The question is whether the Jets can put up enough points to cover with an offense that has gone 70+ yards six times for TDs but no more than 26 yards on any other drive. However, I believe the injury to the Pats' top linebacker Ja'whaun Bentley should help them get to 20 and cover at home.

Aaron Rodgers has always favored his top receiver and clearly his top receiver is Garrett Wilson. We are projecting four more completions than last week with increased yards per completion.. therefore this is nice value

This essentially becomes an ask: Will NE score 2TDs? My answer is no. This is divisional game on a short week and I still don’t believe in the New England offensive line

The Jets will have a real home-field advantage on the short week in primetime with Aaron Rodgers back under center. The Jets should control time of possession and move the ball consistently. The Patriots will commit to the run as long as the scoreboard allows, but we know their passing game isn't strong. I have the Patriots scoring 13 points.

I typically don't love betting Thursday night games, but I can't pass this one up. New England has already exceeded my expectations, and it's clear Jerod Mayo can flat out coach. That said, home teams tend to have a significant advantage on TNF, and the Jets simply have more talent than the Pats. The Jets are a team that's going to need some time to gel in the early going, and they showed some signs of life in Week 2. I'm going to back the Gang Green here, and I believe they'll win this AFC East rivalry game by at least a touchdown.

Should be a fun atmosphere considering it's basically Aaron Rodgers' first home game with the Jets. The Patriots could be down offensive linemen Vederian Lowe and Sidy Sow as well as linebacker Oshane Ximines. Another LB, 2023 leading tackler Ja’Whaun Bentley, was lost for the season Sunday. That's a massive blow and could open up plenty of running room for Breece Hall on Thursday. Meanwhile, hard to see that vanilla New England offense doing much of anything with Jacoby Brissett averaging only 135.0 ypg through the air.

The Pats have an old-school mentality under defensive HC Jarod Mayo and they aint changing now vs a suspect run D on a short week. Jets now lacking two top pass rushers and been leaky inside; Stevenson will see a heavy load and over 20 carries twice already this season. He's third in the NFL in rushing attempts. NYJ struggle with teams that give them volume on the ground - like NE - and are 23rd in rush D EPA thus far. This is an under series, closer low-scoring games since TB12 left NE. Plenty of motivation to keep running the damn ball.

Garrett Wilson has gotten off to a slow start after sky high expectations for the 3rd year WR who finally has a viable QB. Wilson has yet to eclipse 60 yards through two games but Wilson is clearly then number 1 option and both performances appear significantly closer to Wilson's floor. We just saw Geno Smith torch New England's secondary to the tune of 300+ yards and both DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba had spike weeks. Wilson should have a field day as he and Aaron Rodgers look to build chemistry.

Tends to be a low scoring affair when these two get together. Add in Aaron Rodgers looked pedestrian at best, Jets OL struggling, then already playing twice on road in short-week and now at home on a Thurs and I like getting this as close to 40 as possible. NYJ 11-6 to under at home since start of 22. Their last 8 meetings have closed at 39 points and averaged 36.7 points, so this total isn't out of order, especially in short week. Both offenses limited. Pats playing real D. Series is 10-4 to the under since 2017 (avg total 37.5); Mayo still playing Belichick ball. Plenty of running plays.