Gibbs grades out with 12.5 carries when we look at median and factor out things that non CBS analysts miss. It won’t be comfortable but it should cash

If you follow my DFS picks, you won't be surprised by this one. I am fading David Montgomery in this spot, and expect a heavy workload for Gibbs on Sunday. I am projecting closer to 15 carries for the rookie against the Bucs.

About half the people I know, it seems, are going to this game so I can't fade the Lions. And it will be an insanely loud home-field advantage for sure. Detroit won the regular-season matchup 20-6 in Tampa. As well as Baker Mayfield has played lately for the Bucs, he has completed just 1 of 9 passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield in the past two games as he's still not 100 percent healthy.

The Bucs defense has gotten healthier throughout the season. They held four of their last six opponents to under 100 yards. Jahmyr Gibbs is taking up more and more snaps and touches from Montgomery.

The Buccaneers have largely been able to beat up on offensively challenged teams during this run of success; the Lions are certainly not categorized that way. They are undefeated at home since the start of December with a 2-1 ATS mark; the lone failure was last week to the Rams, a team that grades out better than the Bucs. Detroit won this matchup 20-6 on the road back in October, and while Tampa Bay is a far more cohesive team now, last week’s impressive win was aided by Philadelphia’s immense problems. The Lions will be able to get after Baker Mayfield and run the ball well with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. The Bucs have overachieved, but that all stops Sunday in Motown.

The Detroit crowd will be on fire as the Lions are favored by the most points they've EVER been for a playoff game. But the excited fans won't be able to help a bad Lions secondary -- one that hasn't held an opposing QB under 345 yards passing in the last four games. Baker Mayfield's Bucs are eighth in EPA per pass, so even if they get down here, a backdoor cover will be in play for a team that's 12-6 ATS this season. Jared Goff struggles against the blitz, and the Bucs are one of the NFL's three most blitzing teams. The Lions may pull it out, but this is a lot of points against the unsung Bucs, who've lost one game since November.

We haven't had to talk about Detroit off of a playoff win in 32 years, and the Lions have never advanced as far as a conference title game since the 1970 merger (indeed, since the 1957 NFL title game win vs the Browns). Detroit also owns a 20-6 win on the road vs. the Bucs back in October. But the Lions were on the ropes last week vs. the Rams, and Tampa Bay enters loose and dangerous, with an especially noteworthy 8-1 spread mark away this season. Baker Mayfield has been mostly able to keep the Bucs close in their games, which could allow Mike Evans and friends the couple of big plays the Bucs likely need to stay within earshot. Play Bucs

I've said from the beginning of the year the Detroit's defense is well below average. The Bucs are solid offensively with a above average offensive line, very good running backs and two of the most talented wide recievers in the NFL. That is Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. This is the only playoff game this weekend we did not have to worry about the weather. Mayfield and Company put up a big number for 1.5 units.

The indoor conditions can only help Baker Mayfield and his talent receiving core. Mike Evans is the most talents of all. He was targeted seven times last week but caught just three passes for 48 yards. Evans three previous playoff games we went over this number. 1.5 units over.

Chris Godwin will see impressive Lions corner Brian Branch when the Bucs wideout lines up in the slot, but he'll also be matched up often with CB Kindle Vildor. That's a mismatch Godwin should exploit. Godwin's longest catch has gone for 23-plus yards in four of his last six games, and it also went for 23 in the Week 6 matchup with Detroit.

I was on the Bucs last week, but I'm fading them now as I think this will be a much tougher spot than people think. The Buccaneers looked great against the Eagles, but I think the Lions pass rush gets to Baker in this one and contains the Buccaneers air attack. The Bucs have been a nice story, but the Lions with their home atmosphere and versatile offensive attack will be too much for Tampa.

White has been under 23 receiving yards in two straight, both of which were solid if not commanding wins by the Bucs. I'm not sure that will be the case this week against the Lions and their tough run defense. And before Week 18, White had at least 24 receiving yards in four straight games and in 7 of 9 games. Over their past five games the Lions have been right around league average in catch rate (78.9%) and yards per catch (7.0) to running backs, but about a full yard worse in yards after catch per reception. And if the Lions play heavy zone coverage like I think they will, Mayfield will check-down and give White some chances to pick up yardage.

Gibbs has had at least 11 rushing attempts in 5 of his past 6 games, but not last week against the Rams and their tough run defense. No doubt, the Bucs run defense is very good, but Gibbs is the perfect fit against an aggressive front that can be beaten by explosive runners. I think the Lions lean into that and give Gibbs more carries. There's also some pretty good history: Since Week 4, Gibbs has followed up a game with under 10 carries with one with 11 or more the following week. I think he gets back into the swing of things versus Tampa Bay.

Detroit has allowed at least 36 pass attempts in four straight, fueled by their run defense holding RBs to 3.6 in their past five games. Rachaad White hasn't been quite as good as he was about a month ago (under 100 total yds in 4 straight), so this could point to a solid amount of throwing for Tampa Bay, which Mayfield did a lot of back in Week 6. Then, the Lions used heavy zone coverage in an effort to take away big plays, and Mayfield stunk -- but still attempted 37 passes. I suspect Detroit will try to do the same thing. And this feels safer than Mayfield's yardage prop, which is 257.5 and seems too good to be true.

If he didn't drop two balls last week, this line would be even higher. So we will take the opportunity to buy low on Cade Otton. He has emerged as a large factor in these high pressured games, with 20 targets in these last 3 matchups. The Lions pass rush is much better at home, so Baker Mayfield might not have as much time to connect the deep balls to his WRs. Otton is the only tight end with any material targets, and should find success against this Lions defense that has similar issues to Philadelphia when it comes to the slot.

Was hoping this would get to 48 but isn't trending in that direction so I'm going to grab a 48.5 even juiced before it's gone. Bottom line I expect both teams to get to 24 points and there are no ties in playoff games (duh). I like both offenses far more than the passing defenses, especially in a dome. Lions shredded this D outside a few weeks back and their efficiencies soar at home. Bucs offense built for a dome. Average DET home game closed at 47 and totaled 52. I see a 27-24 type game.

Dating back to Week 14, in five of Detroit's last six games, they have given up a touchdown to the opposing team's top wide receiver. I'll play the trend at plus-money again this week.

In their last four games, against No. 1 receivers Justin Jefferson (twice), CeeDee Lamb, and Puka Nacua, the Lions have surrendered a combined 41 catches for 781 yards and four touchdowns. Talk about U-G-L-Y stats for Detroit's secondary. I'm expecting Mike Evans to continue the fun and I would consider laddering his total above 100 yards in the event Tampa Bay is in chase mode (as is likely).

Sloppy analysts will look at his average and recommend the wrong side. In games they lose, when they don’t run 70 plays he simply does not hit this number. Couple that with the very very good Lions run D and this is a strong play

Rachaad White has rushed for at least 72 yards in two straight games, but this is a brutal matchup for him on the ground. The Lions are a pass-funnel defense that's allowed just 3.7 yards per carry and the second-fewest rushing attempts this season. White managed 26 yards on the ground in the regular-season matchup vs. Detroit. Alim McNeill's return has only solidified Detroit's rush defense.

This is a prop that's hit in 14 of 18 games this year, with the Bucs routinely moving the ball well but settling for a few field goals per game while ranking 30th in red-zone success rate. The Lions allow just over 1.5 FGs per game but have given up multiple field goals in three straight. The conditions won't be a factor with this game played indoors, and McLaughlin has proven reliable from deep, making seven of his eight attempts over 50 yards. I love taking his Over on FGs this week.

Weather won't be a factor in this divisional round matchup (as Todd Bowles had to point out to a reporter early in the week). St. Brown is one of the most complete wide receivers in the NFL today, and is approaching what I like to call in the DFS world, 'matchup-proof status'. I expect the former fourth round pick to be targeted early and often and go over 100 yards in this matchup.

The Bucs are coming off their fourth win of more than one score in the last five weeks. This should be a much different game, and I don't see Rachaad White getting the same volume he has in recent games, and even if he does, he's shown the ability to turn a lot of volume into not much yardage while pacing a Bucs rushing offense with the worst efficiency in the league. The Lions allowed the fewest rushing yards to RBs in the regular season and just held Kyren Williams to his lowest rushing total since Week 5. I don't see the Bucs playing from ahead, and it'll be tough for White to get past this number in a negative game script.

We're getting a pretty steep discount on Sam LaPorta's receiving prop and I'm not sure why. LaPorta suited up last week against the Rams and while the stud rookie TE was likely operating at less than 100% he still managed to make an impact by scoring a TD and hauling in three passes. It was also encouraging LaPorta played on 80% of the Lions offensive snaps. LaPorta logged a full participation in practice on Wednesday which is an excellent sign that he plays even more snaps versus TB. Speaking of the Bucs, they surrendered the third most yards to opposing Tight Ends this season and with a combined point total approaching 50 with no weather concern, I want all the "cheap pieces" I can get.

St. Brown was and is the main thing in this passing game, and the Bucs secondary has major issues and with Jared Goff in great form and healthy and at home, I don't why this elusive WR doesn't eat here. Here's his yard totals at home: 110, 144, 112, 95, 77, 108, 102, 102. Caught 12/15 for 124 at Tampa. Bucs were 26th in YPA allowed and 29th in pass yards to WR and 22nd in YAC/rec to WR. St. Brown can do a lot after the catch

Mayfield has backwards splits. He's far better on the road than at home and it will be loud, but he's got nothing to lose and is slinging it around and the Lions secondary has major issues, Was 2nd ranked passer on the road with 18 passing TDs in 9 road games. He has 2+ TDs in 7 of the last 8 on the road. He's over this in 5 of the last 6 overall and 9 of 12. Detroit has allowed this in four straight games. Lions have allowed the 5th most passing TDs. With a poor run game, this is how the Bucs score and Baker is spreading it around and finding the underbelly of defenses. He has a robust one to mine here.

This seems as baked into the cake as anything. Jahyr Gibbs gets his too, but Dan Cambell seems to enjoy finishing drives with his power back to set a tone, with Montgomery picking up with Jamaal WIlliams left off. This has hit in 14 of his 15 games and in 8 of the last 10. It's hit in 6 of the 7 home games Montgomery has played (including playoffs). He got just 6 carries in the first game vs the Bucs but will get much more, here. Will get plenty of pops inside the 10 to push it through and he was catalyst for Lions RZ surge midseason.

TEs are a QBs best friend, and that seems especially true in the playoffs. Many of them are over their props and we are riding several this week, too, especially on the road. Lions struggle vs the slot unless Brian Branch is running with someone, but that won't be this match-up. Otton led Bucs in slot routes run final 5 weeks of regular season as they surged then got 11 targets vs an Eagles D with many of the same issues as the Lions. Teams keep selling out to stop Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, leaving Otton to road, Drops too many balls but he will find joy in the seam here. Has 30+ yards in 5 of the last 6 road games, averaging 42/G.

Cade Otton led Tampa Bay with 11 targets Monday, hauling in eight passes for 89 yards. He gets a tougher matchup in Detroit, but he has virtually no competition for snaps or targets within the Bucs' tight end group. With Aidan Hutchinson (13.5 sacks) bringing pressure, Mayfield will get rid of the ball quickly sometimes and Otton is his big target over the middle. Over the last seven games, opposing tight ends have averaged 65 receiving yards vs. Detroit. Those are collective numbers, but again, Otton rarely leaves the field. He's run a route on at least 85 percent of pass plays the past six weeks.

Baker Mayfield has covered four straight as an underdog and seven of eight. He's facing a Lions defense that gives up the most explosive pass plays. In the last four games, Detroit has given up 367 passing yards to Matthew Stafford, 396 and 411 to Nick Mullens, 345 to Dak Prescott. The Rams averaged a whopping 7.7 yards per play in their Wild Card loss. It's true Detroit dominated the Week 6 meeting, even with David Montgomery leaving early and Jahmyr Gibbs inactive. But this Bucs defense is healthy now, has allowed one touchdown over the past 10 quarters, and has stuffed the run for the past month. Todd Bowles' blitzes can bother Jared Goff.

Cade Otton cashed this prop for us on MNF with his first two receptions. I still think the odds-makers are not adjusting this line enough. He plays 92% of the snaps and Baker Mayfield is very comfortable throwing him the ball. My model predicts 49.5 yards and simulations are a tad lower. Take the over!

The Lions dominated the Bucs in their first meeting, and while this Bucs team is more battle-tested now with six wins in their last seven games, I don't see them playing anywhere near the level Detroit is on right now. The Bucs took advantage of a team that couldn't tackle and didn't have its top offensive weapon in the wild-card round, but despite the final score they let the collapsing team hang around well into the third quarter. With Sam LaPorta playing through his injury and looking effective last week, the Lions held off a Rams team that's in a much better place than the Bucs right now. I'd make this line a full touchdown to the home team.