Interesting spot for the Lions going back on the road outdoors against a Bears team that been stepping up since the return of Justin Fields. This is the second time these teams are meeting in Chicago’s last three games, and it’s trying to avoid a season sweep. Let’s remember that Detroit is 5-1 straight up and ATS on the road with the lone failure coming at Baltimore. Chicago is 1-3-1 ATS at home with its lone cover over Las Vegas. Jared Goff should get whatever he wants against this weak Bears secondary, and even if they struggle early, the Lions should pull away in the second half. Would only go a half unit with the hook.

OK Bears, that Patriots victory Thursday was great news for the 2024 draft. Keep it up here with a competitive loss. The Lions won't take them for granted after nearly losing at home a couple of weeks ago in Justin Fields' return from injury. Do think this is close but the more talented roster and much better-coached team wins at the end. Chicago has lost 13 games straight vs. teams entering multiple games above .500, by far the longest active streak in the league.

These clubs combined for 57 points indoors a few weeks ago and, with a weather outlook in Chicago better than previously expected, there should be plenty of offense from both sides to send this Over the total again.

The spread and ML price on this game feel a little too generous to a four-win Chicago club that hasn't beaten a winning team and whose most credible win came in an ugly 12-10 triumph over the Vikings. The road-tested Lions face division rival Minnesota twice down the stretch, but could put the Vikings in their rear view with a win Sunday.

Montgomery was already going to get plenty of work, but he should have even more motivation against a Bears club that let him go and has struggled for backfield production this year, while the Lions have one of the top backfields in the NFL.

These two teams met 3 weeks ago and put up a combined 57 points. While I don't think we will see anything nearly that high, I do think both offenses will be able to move the ball swiftly as both defenses have their issues. The game conditions won't be as ideal as they were at Ford Field three weeks ago, but it looks like any major weather issues will be avoided.

I'm guessing the total was bet down because of the weather, but I don't think the wind is strong enough to drop this total. I'd also like to say I was right in saying the Detroit defense is below average and the offense is top-five. I said that before the season started. The Lions are 4-0 Over in their past four games. The Detroit defense has allowed 121 points over that time. The Bears have scored 28 or more in three of Fields' past five starts.

With the line dropping a half-point to an even three, Detroit backers are paying a premium for the loss of a hook. The price is steep but worthwhile. Though Chicago QB Justin Fields has run freely in past meetings, it's a reach to expect Chicago to keep pace with Detroit's dynamic offense, which has rung up 102 points in the prior three encounters and have scored at a similar rate in its three most recent outings. The Bears have eclipsed 17 points scored just once the last five times they have taken the field. Travel suits the Lions well; they are 5-1 straight-up on the road. Byes do not suit the Bears well; they are in a 1-8 ATS slump following an off week.

This one starts with the Lions pass rush, which hasn't been hitting and will be without big D-tackle Alim McNeill. That makes the matchup easier for Justin Fields, who has run wild against the Lions in three straight meetings. The Lions certainly know this and might overcompensate for trying to slow Fields' feet and wind up with some coverage busts. They've already had a bunch of those recently -- in four games since their bye the Lions have allowed a 67.7% completion rate, but it blossoms to 73.3% against receivers like Moore. For his part, Moore has at least six catches in 5 of his past 8, including a game Fields got hurt in AND including the Bears' past two.

With Justin Fields at quarterback for the full game, DJ Moore has cleared this prop total in four straight, racking up 131, 230, 96 and 114 yards. The 96-yard outing came in Week 11 at Detroit, which has given up 8.7 yards per pass (2nd-most) since Week 7. Moore has accounted for 45 percent of the Bears' receiving yardage -- the largest share of any receiver in the NFL. The weather forecast calls for zero precipitation, 36 degrees and 16 mph winds. Not ideal, but not bad enough to slow down Moore.

Against Detroit in Week 11, Moore went for 96 yards on seven catches, including a touchdown. He ranks 9th in deep targets among all WRs and should get at least a couple from Justin Fields this week. Not to mention that in their last four games, the Lions have surrendered receiving totals of 175, 96, 94, and 119 to the opposing team's #1 receiver. It should be another plentiful day for the Bears top pass catcher on Sunday.

Jared Goff & the Lions have struggled with ball security over the last few weeks. However, Goff has still managed to throw at least 2 TD passes in 4 straight games. Look for Goff to cash the over again here as Chicago ranks 30th in passing touchdowns allowed this season. While the defense looked pretty good last week, it’s hard to trust them against Detroit's elite pass catchers like Amonra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta

The Lions have averaged more than 30 points in their last five games, and have done so while phasing Josh Reynolds out of the offense. Despite receiving 2-4 targets per game in each of the last four weeks since the bye, he hasn't topped 15 receiving yards since Week 7. Between Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and the two backs, there aren't many touches left over for Reynolds, especially with Jameson Williams hitting a few big plays over the last month. I'll bank on the Reynolds trend continuing against an improving Bears defense off their bye.

Somehow Gibbs got just two targets last week, his lowest since Week 3. Not sure that could possibly happen again, especially given how explosive he is in the screen game, how bad this forecast looks and how bad the Bears are covering RBs through the air. Chicago is 2nd in the NFL in yards/carry allowed, however, so even if they run a lot might not go very far. Goff was 8/8 for 71 yards throwing to RBs in the first meeting and Gibbs caught all six targets for 59 yards. So much wiggle to make tacklers miss at the first and second level.

Fields going over double digit rushes is never a stretch. Doing it in a huge division game against a defense he has owned on the ground on what could be a miserable, windy day, while healthy and fresh and coming off a bye? Come on now. He's over this in three of the last four games and four of the last six, and if you think this game will be close, all the more reason to expect him to activate his legs outside the pocket and let his legs take over. He's had at least 8 in every divisional game, and I think we could get a kneel down or two, also.

Fields has gone over 100 yards rushing in 3 games against Detroit, including earlier this season. Weather looks like it might be truly miserable and throwing the ball around. All the more reason to lean into Fields leading the attack on the ground. Detroit is pretty stout against the traditional run game, but Fields in the option game gives them fits.

The Lions have won four of the last five games since getting hammered 38-6 at Baltimore. The defense has been an area that opponents are seizing upon and it’s produced four games Over the total in their last four and the number has been too high on the sides in their last two at home with the Packers putting the Lions down before they knew what was happening. The Bears had a 26-14 lead in the fourth quarter before blowing it. Jared Goff had three interceptions in that game. Still, the Lions are 9-3 and 8-4 ATS. There is a better chance of the Lions being themselves in 36-degree weather with 15 mph wind than the Bears winning or covering. Lions to cover.

The Detroit Lions will be playing their second straight road game against a team with revenge coming off its BYE week. Detroit won the first meeting while outgaining the Bears by just four yards. The Lions held Jared Goff to a season-low 68.3 passer rating in perfect weather conditions. This game will be the opposite, with 50% snow showers and 15-25 MPH winds. Jared Goff has a QB rating of 93.9 outdoors and 88.0 on the natural grass compared to 101.5 indoors and 104.1 on turf. The Bears have been improving on both sides of the ball, while the Lions are slipping a bit thanks to multiple injuries at critical spots. Grab the 3.5 points!

The Lions got out to a fast start last week but then nearly wilted late, a reverse of their game against the Bears a few weeks back. They struggle in the red zone (30th in success rate) on defense, letting a poor Saints red zone offense go 4 for 4. The Bears offense is good on third down and in the red zone, and the team is improving on both sides of the ball. The Chicago defense ranks second in yards per rush, which is key with this projected to be an extreme wind game. The conditions should favor backing the Bears and fading Jared Goff, and I'll take them at 3 at even odds and also look to the money line.

Weather is a fickle beast and this could backfire in a game that profiles as a possible shootout in good conditions but there's a chance we get 30+ mph wind and constant rain with the possibility of snow as well. Bad Chicago weather makes life tough for offensive football and if the weather stays on target this should close below 40.

The Bears blew a late double-digit lead in Detroit in Week 11, but it's worth remembering they forced Jared Goff into his worst home performance (3 INTs). Chicago is healthy following its bye and has a top-tier defense now that Montez Sweat has acclimated. Over their last three games, the Bears have generated 26 QB pressures. Those have led to multiple interceptions and three missed INTs -- all of which could have been pick-6s. Justin Fields posted an 86.3 passer rating in the fourth quarter of the 12-10 win in Minnesota, setting himself up for a strong finish over the last five games as he tries to make the case against the Bears drafting a QB high.