Conklin topped this total nine times last year, including once vs. Buffalo, with a lot worse QBs throwing to him. Shoot, Conklin had six games with a long reception more than 20.5 yards.

This is likely a square Over play but I believe Aaron Rodgers feeds his best receiver, and Wilson is his best.

The Jets' defensive line is stacked. And fast. Cook is not a bruiser. There will be wet and sloppy conditions. Take the Under.

It's understandable for there to be excitement in NYC over Aaron Rodgers -- and surely the offseason hype machine has done plenty to make fans think the Jets are going to roll through the NFL this season. Except there's one problem: The Dolphins and Bills exist ... and that's in the AFC East alone. This should be a low-scoring game, so the line is appropriate. Both sides are dealing with offensive line problems, and Rodgers has not been great in Week 1 games recently. He tries to reverse that trend Monday, except this time with an entirely new team. The Bills likely spent the offseason learning how the Jets shut them down last year. That plus a healthy Josh Allen should lead to a cover.

This feels like a bit of a value spot on Davis, who saw increased action down the stretch last year as Josh Allen was limited by an injury and Stefon Diggs continued to command a ton of defensive attention. While Davis should still be something of a home run vertical threat, look for him to run more intermediate routes and see more targets. This is a lucrative price on him to grab at least four receptions.

This should be a very close game, but the Bills are the better team here and I trust the offensive weaponry for the Bills over the Jets in Week 1. Josh Allen gets a tough Jets defense, but this time around he'll be fully healthy (UCL injury when facing NYJ in Week 9 and 14 in 2022) and I think new starter James Cook and rookie Dalton Kincaid will be the difference in this lower scoring affair. Similar to both games in 2022, I also expect Josh Allen to utilize his legs in a big way tonight.

This could blow up in my face but Sportsline AI is projecting only 53 yards for Stefon Diggs. I don’t blame AI for thinking that though, the last time Diggs played the Jets he had 37 yards. The range of outcomes for Diggs can be huge, which makes this risky. Last season he had as high as 148 receiving yards and as low as 26. The Jets defense remains strong and last season they averaged the third best defensive passing yard defense allowing only 189 yards per game.

Sportsline AI is projecting 196 yards for Aaron Rodgers tonight which even for me sounds a little low. But in his last 10 games he’s averaged 209.8 yards per game only going over this line twice. I expect moments of brilliance from Rodgers, but just moments when he is needed most.

Garrett Wilson had a dominate 37.5% target share in the preseason when he and Aaron Rodgers were on the field. While I don't expect him to replicate that number, I do feel 28-30% is possible and that Wilson is poised for an absolutely monster season. Wilson has the ability to win wherever he is lined up I don't believe the Bills secondary is quite as scary as they are billed. I think this very well could be the last and only time we find Wilson's receiving line under 70 this season.

The Jets possess an elite secondary and surrendered the fewest yards to opposing WRs in the NFL last season. 4 receptions is a big ask for Davis who is primarily running routes deep down the field for the Bills. Davis combined for only 5 receptions and 64 yards in 2 appearances against the Jets last season. The Bills spent a first round pick on Dalton Kinkaid and signed Trent Sherfield who will both be vying for targets in a crowded receiver group.

Both games last season went under by an average of 10.25 points. New York held the Bills to 20 points or less in each of those two games. It will take a few games for Aaron Rodgers and this New York offense to start clicking and their first test is against a strong Bills 4-3 defense that can bring pressure and keep the Jets receivers in check.

For as great as Josh Allen has been, he had seven games in 2022 under this passing yardage total. In two games against the Jets last season, Allen threw for a combined 352 yards (5.8 YPA), with one touchdown and two interceptions. Against the Jets last season, only Joe Burrow (275) and Jared Goff (252) exceeded this number, so I feel Allen's total tonight is at least 25 yards too high in Week 1.

This line has dropped three points since it originally opened which isn't a huge surprise considering seven of the last eight meetings between these two teams have gone under this number. It's not as if Aaron Rodgers is stepping into a much more potent offense than he was in last year in Green Bay (21.8 PPG in 2022) so let's temper our expectations a bit in Week 1. New York's defense also held Josh Allen in check twice last season so I would expect to see that once again. A game played in the 30s combined seems probable for the 7th time since 2019.

Coming out of Georgia, James Cook was the best receiving RB in the 2022 draft. Devin Singletary is gone and the backs behind Cook on the Bills' depth chart -- Damien Harris and Latavius Murray -- are primarily going to work on early downs and short yardage. “We feel he's kind of like a wide receiver in his own way,” general manager Brandon Beane said when the team drafted Cook. “This was a guy that really stood out to us with the ball in his hands. You can split him out. He can run routes similar to a receiver.” It's always risky to bank on RB catches but I love Cook to play on third downs and make at least one grab for 10-plus yards.

Rodgers has gone over this total in only two of his last 11 starts, and the Bills defense only let QBs go over this total five times in 18 games last year. Only one of those games was on the road, where the Bills allowed an average of 186.5 yards passing per game.

All the offseason hype comes to an end tonight, as Aaron Rodgers and the Jets must take the field against the best team in their division. The Bills have been happy to see the Jets getting gassed up all offseason, as people seem to forget how good this team is, and the market seems to have forgotten as well.

It's the beginning of the Aaron Rodgers era in New York, but I expect this to be the continuation of the Primetime Under era that has emerged over the last four years, when primetime Unders are close to 59%. Unders are 11-4 in Week 1 this year with both primetime games going under, and I expect it here with the Jets' top-tier defense paired with questions at offensive tackle.

I like this spot for Josh Allen tonight against an aggressive Jets defense that plays a lot of press man coverage. Allen's historical rushing splits against the Jets is certainly encouraging as well. While he may not rely on his legs quite as much in previous years, he's still a threat to take off between the 20's.

Josh Allen averaged 9.5 carries and 66.5 rushing yards versus the Jets last season, as their elite secondary and front four often forced Allen to tuck it and run. He has rushed for at least 38 yards in seven of eight meetings with Gang Green. In his last three season openers, Allen has averaged 52.3 rushing yards.

I have the Bills winning 59 percent of simulations which gives an implied line of -144. Josh Allen played injured for a significant portion of the season last year but he's healthy now and I think it shows in a big way to start the season. The defense is also finally healthy with safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer and corner Tre'Davious White all ready to go. The Jets are solid defensively, but I think it will take the offensive unit a few weeks to really get clicking. This is a very tough draw to open the season for the Jets. I like the Bills to start the season with a win.

Normally you'd want to fade the hype, but the Jets match up great with the Bills -- last year they didn't allow more than 20 points in either game and went 1-1. That was with far worse QBs. Both teams' biggest weakness is the O-line, but the Jets are better suited to exploit that. Aaron Rodgers hasn't lost a 'MNF' game since 2013. He'll make it 10 straight here.

Tyler Conklin had a solid season last year as the primary pass-catching tight end in New York's anemic passing attack. He gets a major upgrade at QB with 4x MVP Aaron Rodgers taking over under center. Word out of New York is Conklin had a very good training camp, and it appears he might carve out a significant role in the Jets new look offense. Garrett Wilson will be Rodgers' primary target, but after him it looks to be wide open, and I believe there is a good chance Conklin has a career season. Conklin has averaged 33.4 receiving yards per game over the last two seasons. Even in a tough matchup, this is a friendly line.

You wouldn't know, looking at this total, that the teams were two of the league's stingiest four for points allowed in 2022. The Jets might have strengthened their defense in the offseason. Surely QB Aaron Rodgers will jump-start New York's offense at some point but probably not overnight. After all, the Jets outscored only three squads a year ago. A-Rod must cope with the Bills' stellar pair at safety, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer.

The Jets held the Bills to 37 points combined in two games last year, but the first of those was where Josh Allen suffered his elbow injury and saw his play drop off for the rest of the year. The Jets defense could certainly make things difficult for Allen again, but the Jets offense isn't likely to hit its stride until their RBs are fully healthy. I expect this is lower-scoring than people expect, but since I'm projecting the line at Bills -4, I have to take them laying less than a FG.

Until injuries to Von Miller and Josh Allen last season, the Bills were clearly the NFL's top team. In the offseason they shrewdly added Connor McGovern, Leonard Floyd, Poona Ford and Damien Harris, plus they drafted dynamic tight end Dalton Kincaid. Safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer and corner Tre'Davious White are healthy. The Jets return a strong defense and will be better offensively with Aaron Rodgers replacing Zach Wilson. But it's going to take time for the offense to find its stride. In the Jets' 20-17 win over the Bills at home last November, Allen was picked off twice and played his worst game of the season. Expect Allen to redeem himself as Buffalo improves to 6-1 in the past seven meetings.