Allen has gone over 50 rushing yards in back to back games, and I expect that trend to continue on Sunday night. Allen and the Bills thrive at home in primetime and cold weather games. The former Wyoming star is capable of ripping off a big chunk of this number on one play.

No Dalton Kincaid and no Keon Coleman for Buffalo tells me the Bills would lean heavily on their rushing attack in 'normal' weather conditions. I expect the Bills to win here, which will add in late-game carry opportunities for Cook. All said, this is a spot where I expect him to push towards 20 carries on SNF.

Injuries are mounting for both teams, and you've likely already seen me say this more than once, but the weather is going to play a role in the outcome of this game. I expect 17-20 first half points on SNF.

The 49ers Injury Report is star-studded. On top of that, the weather is more conducive to Buffalo's game. Brock Purdy will offer the 49ers some stability, but there are too many variables stacking up against the defending NFC champs. My projections have Buffalo winning by 8 points on Sunday night.

Poor weather conditions in Buffalo may actually increase the downgraded prop market value on certain players. Jauan Jennings is a long time San Francisco 49er that abided his time and worked his way up the wide receiver depth chart. He has become the clear top target for Brock Purdy. Expect Purdy to consistently look for Jennings on the short and intermediate route. Take Jennings over yardage.

The 49ers are desperate, which for most of the week had me leaning their way. It’s just tough to make a pick on such a weak concept when so much is working against them. The Bills are home in comfortable weather with the Niners missing Joey Bosa, the key weapon to combatting Josh Allen. Brock Purdy is back, which should help, but Trent Williams remains out lessening his protection significantly. Christian McCaffrey is not playing like he’s at full capacity despite staying injury-free since returning. Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman are missing for Buffalo, but Dawson Knox is a fine replacement at TE. Plus, the Bills are off a bye, while the Niners are flying cross country. That all, inevitably, points in one direction.

Deebo Samuel was completely shut down last week, but if the 49ers want to have any chance agains the Bills, they'll need to get Deebo involved early and often. Good news for Deebo is that Brock Purdy is back for this game and I expect some Deebo utilization specifically in the short area passing game (which is why I'm targeting receptions over yards). The Bills defense has been great this year, but defending the slot has been an issue all year. Deebo cleared this number in his previous three games and I expect him to do it again on SNF.

The weather in Buffalo is going to be the topic of the night on the SNF broadcast. I expect it to have a significant impact on the game, especially early on. I only expect to see one score in the first quarter here, which, barring an unforeseen two-point conversion, would keep this total under 7.5.

If the 49ers have any chance of hanging with the Bills, they'll need a massive effort from Christian McCaffrey. Buffalo allows 5.6 yards per carry on outside runs; eighty percent of McCaffrey's carries have gone outside. Look for McCaffrey to get at least 15 carries Sunday night.

Josh Allen loves to use his legs in big games. In classic Buffalo weather conditions, I expect the Bills to go with a run-heavy game plan behind a mix of James Cook, and Josh Allen himself. Allen has gone over this rushing yards line in consecutive games, and went for 50 yards and a TD on 8 carries in his last game against the Chiefs. The Bills are coming off their bye week, and Allen will likely relish the opportunity to play in a snow game. The Niners are still without DE Nick Bosa and LB Dre Greenlaw. Look for Allen to make opposing defenders slip and slide as they chase him in the snow.

Brock Purdy is expected to play in this game, but the 49ers will have two massive absences in Nick Bosa and Trent Williams. Without those players, the Bills should be favored by a touchdown. The Bills are healthy coming out of their bye, with Dalton Kincaid as the one notable absence, but Josh Allen can have success in the passing game while targeting Dawson Knox and his receivers, even with the snowy conditions. Purdy should be hard pressed to keep up at less than 100 percent, especially if the O-line plays like it typically does when Williams isn't on the field.

The grounds crew at Highmark Stadium in Buffalo has been working hard to clear 24 inches of snowfall that came down yesterday. Below freezing conditions, and more snow is expected on Sunday night. This should create a run-heavy game plan for both teams. It looks as if Niners QB Brock Purdy will play through his shoulder injury this week, but he may struggle without star LT Trent Williams and Guard Aaron Banks to protect him. The Bills will be without TE Dalton Kincaid, and WR Keon Coleman is ‘questionable’ to play dealing with a nagging wrist injury. With both teams missing key offensive pieces, 10+ mph winds, and the potential for more snow, I’m forced to play the Under.

Brock Purdy is back, CMC is healthy and the SF season is on the line. And truth is I don’t really trust the Bills. Sure, weather is going to be a factor but I’ll pay to find out if SF and CMC are cooked.

SF has their season on the line. CMC has a total yards prop over 100. I agree there will be a healthy dose of #23. And that includes getting into the end zone. It will never be lower than this.

I think we are getting a little value here with McCaffrey. He wasn't much of a factor last week with the 49ers falling behind early. The week before vs. Seattle, McCaffrey put up 79 yards on 19 carries. I think we see a stat line similar to that in a cold, windy night game at Buffalo.

You know the weather will be harsh in Buffalo when the Bills recruit volunteers to shovel snow in and around the stadium. The downfall is expected to be measured in feet, not inches. The 49ers have cleared QB Brock Purdy to play, which has propped up the total, but how effective can he be, especially with OT Trent Williams and OG Aaron Banks scratched? A concern is Buffalo QB Josh Allen's effectiveness in inclement conditions, yet this predicted amount of accumulation might be excessive enough to limit the league's Mr. Snowman.

The 5-6 49ers are in a tough spot with a two-game losing streak only covering four of their last five games and they might not have their quarterback ready for Sunday’s game at Buffalo. Brock Purdy might be out and Brandon Allen would be the starter with Joshua Dobbs as a backup. The 9-2 Bills are on the run now of winning six in a row and covering five of the six. They've gone over their last three games and that's the point, they keep coming and don't stop. I don't see how the 49ers will keep up and that’s even with Purdy, without him the Bills win by 20. I have to lean Bills here, something like 27-6.

Big games bring out Allen's legs in a big way. We just saw it against the Chiefs. And coming off a bye tends to bring out the best in Allen as well. He's gotten away from using the legs this season but this time of year it tends to return. The 49ers have allowed 16 rushing TDs this season, third most in the NFL. They have allowed 11 in the last 5 games alone. Its clear where they wilt in the RZ and their front 7 is beat up.

I'm grabbing this before it's gone for good. Bills have scored 30 or more in 5 straight, they have a legit homefield advantage and the 49ers best win this season is probably over the beat up Bucs. SF is 1-4 ATS on road with a -7.2 cover margin (Vegas giving them too much credit again. ST 2-5 ATS in last 7 games and they are suspect in all 3 phases of play and a horrible 4th quarter team. BUF 5-1 ATS in last 6 and have 6 double-digit wins already this season. Josh Allen is 6-0 off bye with 4 double-digit wins. Four of Bills 5 home wins by at least 6 points. Too many walking wounded 49ers. Will struggle at point of attack.