Are the Cowboys worth -182? H-E-Double hockey sticks no but I shant playing them at -4 that's for sure. Don't really like any of today's games. But I think Dallas at least as a professional backup quarterback starting today in Cooper Rush and the Giants don't in likely Drew Lock. And I also am pretty sure Jerry Jones threatened to banish several guys to a Siberian prison if the Cowboys go winless at home this season at JerryWorld. That's all this is. I'll surely be asleep by mid-second half anyways. NYG is banged up on the O-Line so I could see a major big day for Micah Parsons as Lock is a statue. Wish we had sack props (his Over 0.25 is a whopping --205).

Drew Lock has been relegated to career backup, but the former Missouri standout is one of the better pure passers in the NFL. There is some boom-or-bust potential for Lock here, but he has nice weapons in the Giants' offense and I believe he'll finish with 200+ yards on Thanksgiving Day.

The Giants have made us wait long enough this week re: the status of QB Tommy DeVito, though now it seems as if Brian Daboll is to reluctantly start Drew Lock at Dallas. "Reluctantly" only by flawed Giants logic of not playing Lock in the first place due, apparently, to contract incentives that risk being met if Lock actually plays. What a way to run a team! Meanwhile the Cowboys are back at home, which has not been a good thing for them this season, though Cooper Rush played with a bit more confidence at Washington. Another pair of kick-return TDs (as last week--both in 4th Q!--for Dallas) would help, but looking over as long as it's Lock for NY. Play Giants-Cowboys Over

Dowdle has seen 3+ targets in 6 consecutive games now. The biggest strength of this disastrous Giants team has been their defensive line, and their ability to create pressure. Cowboys backup QB Cooper Rush does not have much mobility, and I expect check downs to his RB when Brian Burns and company collapse the pocket. Dowdle can go over this modest line with one well-designed screen play.

Giants rookie TE Theo Johnson is starting to get consistent targets. The 2-9 G-Men have little to play for at this point, other than developing their young talent and getting them meaningful reps. Johnson has gone over this receiving yards line in four consecutive games, and in 6 of his last 7. Johnson has gotten 6 targets in each of the last 3 games as well. I especially like this prop now that Drew Lock is expected to get the start, who has much more arm talent than Tommy Devito.

Whether it is Tommy DeVito or Drew Lock at quarterback I fully expect rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers to get a heavy dose of targets. The offense was out of sort following their bye week, with Nabers vocal about the play calls early on. He feasted on this Dallas secondary on a short week in week four with a season high twelve catches and 115 yards. Take Nabers over on his receiving yards.

Last week for the Cowboys wasn't an anomaly, as they looked like a functional, complete team against Washington. That's more than I can say about what we saw from the Giants against the Bucs. It also doesn't help that they are limping into this game at QB as well.

The Thanksgiving spread includes turkey, mashed potatoes and cornbread (if you're lucky) ... not chicken cutlets. The Cowboys exorcised some demons last week taking down the Commanders -- on the road, as double-digit underdogs -- while the Giants have now lost six straight (0-6 ATS) with a drubbing at the hands of the Bucs. Dallas won September's road meeting by five with Malik Nabers going off for 115 yards. Last week, with Tommy DeVito, he had 64 on nine targets. Cooper Rush can sling it (601 yards the last two week), plus he has CeeDee Lamb, an emerging Jalen Tolbert and a returning Brandin Cooks. At home, by a field goal, on a day we all want action, the Cowboys are a worthy play.

The Giants need to convince themselves this is Saquon Barkley light. And while two costly fumbles would typically cause the team to lose trust in you, that shouldn't be the case here. Since taking over as a starter, the over is 4-3, but the misses are just shy of this line while the overs soar over. Dallas run defense started the season horrendously, had 2 weeks of good run defense but have since reverted to their old ways. Outside of Atlanta, everyone is putting up 140+ rushing yards on them.

Drew Lock is set to start this game for the Giants, and in my opinion, he's been the best quarterback on that roster since he signed with Giants this past offseason. I expect New York to be significantly better with Lock, and the Cowboys proved they can score (34 points last week against the Commanders) without Dak Prescott under center. I would have set this number in the low 40's, so 37.5 at -104 is an excellent value.

Malik Nabers hasn't made a massive impact since missing two games due to injury, failing to score a TD in five straight and topping out at 71 yards. However, he's averaged just over 10 targets per game in that span, and this sets up to be a potential breakout spot with Drew Lock now expected to be at QB for the Giants. Brian Daboll should get Nabers involved early and often, and he has a better opportunity to pile up receptions with the more competent passer feeding him the ball. The Cowboys defense is dealing with plenty of injuries as well, which should make it easier for Nabers to win one-on-one battles. I'd ladder this one up to 10+ receptions.

Drew Lock is now expected to start for New York due to Tommy DeVito's injury, and with the better QB in, this line shouldn't close above 3. While Lock isn't the second coming of Eli Manning, he does offer more in the passing game and should be able to get the ball in the hands of the team's playmakers, which was an issue last week. The Cowboys' win last week was a bit fluky with the kickoff return TDs, and the defense fell apart on the long Terry McLaurin TD. Dallas is also very beat up on both sides of the ball, and as a result it's going to be difficult to win this game by more than a field goal against a competent QB.

I think there was an overreaction to Dallas looking so putrid on offense against Philadelphia and Houston. Cooper Rush is a better than average back up quarterback, and Dallas should be able to get to 20 at home against the giant defense that at times seems to show a lack of effort.

Never could have imagined a pick being based partly on QB Tommy DeVito not playing. The Giants bypassed second-stringer Drew Lock last week when it demoted since-dropped Daniel Jones and started third-stringer DeVito. That speaks of how little confidence New York has in Lock, who likely gets the call in a short week with DeVito ailing. While the Cowboys' recent Thanksgiving Day results are spotty, they are accustomed to the holiday week turn-around. They surely enter the matchup in higher spirits than New York after upsetting Washington as double-digit underdogs last Sunday.

Cooper Rush has settled in at QB and he is feeding Lamb and the Giants have some serious issues on the back end. They have allowed a 115.5 passer rating on targets to WRs (32nd), on 8.7 yards/attempt (26th). They are allowing a 109.8 rating on passes to slot WRs (25th). They are allowing 12.14 yards/completion to slot WRs and Lamb might be the best in the game. Lamb is over this in his last 2 games with Rush and is over this in 5 straight games vs the Giants and 6 of the last 7.

The Giants gave up eight catches for 81 yards to Buccaneers running backs last week, and now it's Rico Dowdle's turn. He's drawn 23 targets in the past five games (4.6 average) and has taken over this backfield. Despite their woes, the Giants still have a formidable pass rush led by Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns and Azeez Ojulari (21 combined sacks). That could force Cooper Rush to look for quick outlets, helping this bet.

Indications are that Tommy DeVito will make his second straight start, which is why I'm on the Cowboys. The Giants did nothing until garbage time Sunday; they mustered 45 yards in the first half. Cooper Rush has thrown for 601 yards in his last two games, giving the Cowboys a chance to end their home woes. It's not easy to lay more than a field goal with 4-7 Dallas, but there's one matchup that could prove pivotal: Micah Parsons (2 sacks Sunday) and DeMarvion Overshown versus a shaky and depleted Giants' O-line, bearing down on a QB who holds the ball too long.

I get that we have back-up QBs and all in this game, but the last 4 times these teams met in Dallas they’ve averaged 62.25 points. The last 10 meetings in this series are 7-3 over, averaging 50 points. Cowboys are 4-1 over at home this season, averaging 51 points. Giants road games average 41 points. Dallas has played 6 straight games of 40+. The over is 9-3 in last 12 Dallas Turkey Day games, going over on average by 4.6 points with an average total of 52. Only one of those games (2017 vs Chargers) has failed to produce at least 40 points. We'll get serious pass rush and turnovers and quick scores off mistakes.