I lived in Miami for a year and I flew home to Michigan one winter weekend. I couldn't feel my toes for about a month after. Probably shouldn't have worn sandals, but that's neither here nor there. True, I didn't fly charter, am not a professional athlete, didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express and don't have a full-time trainer to help me. But the Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa specifically don't win when it's below freezing. Do I think betting is this simple? No, but there are people out there who simply don't function well in cold weather. Why I moved ...

Dolphins TE Jonnu Smith is having a breakout year. Tua Tagovailoa has looked Smith’s way often this season, seeing 6+ targets in 7/11 games. Smith has gone over this receptions line in 5 of his last 7 games, and is coming off two of the best games in his NFL career. Smith is a hot commodity, so his receiving yards line is starting to climb a bit high for my liking. I prefer to play receptions.

Since returning five games ago, Tua Tagovailoa ranks first in EPA per dropback and eighth in completion percentage over expected. He's routinely getting rid of the ball in under 2.5 seconds. The Packers rank 29th in success rate against the pass. Look for Tagovailoa to clear this prop total for the fifth time in his last six games.

From time to time, I tried to point out That when it comes to first half numbers in the NFL 23 is a key number. Going over 23 requires 3 tds or 2 TDs and FOUR FGs. Because 2TDs and 3 FGs keeps you under 23.5 by the half point. Therefore. This basically becomes a y/n if there will be three touchdowns in the first half…plus a fourth score. That seems a bit high to me.

Jonnu Smith has been Tua Tagovailoa's go-to target since Tagovailoa returned from his injury. Smith leads the Dolphins' pass catchers with a 20.8% target share since Tagovailoa returned. That has led to big games for Smith recently, including three touchdowns in the last two games. Smith has a good matchup against the Packers' defense that allows a 5.3% touchdown rate to tight ends. I like Smith to find the end zone again tonight and love the Anytime Touchdown price for him.

The overall total has ticked up a bit in spite of non ideal conditions in Green Bay, but my target is the 1st half under as I've noticed the Dolphins have not really opened up the scoring until second halves of games. I think both teams will be content to run clock via the run game and short area passing game until their hands are forced to open things up. Add in the weather conditions and we could see a relatively low scoring and conservative first half.

Josh Jacobs did not catch a pass in last week's 38-10 thumping of the 49ers, but in competitive games he has been active as a receiver. This one should be close throughout. The Dolphins have given up eight, seven, six and six targets to opposing running backs the past four games, as they are protecting against deeper throws. Look for Jacobs to record at least 15 receiving yards as he continues his workhorse role (22-plus touches in three of his last four).

This is a tough matchup for Josh Jacobs who has been good this season, however hes facing an underrated Miami run defense, that ranks top 10 in EPA allowed per rush, in addition to success rate. Miami has become a pass funnel in recent weeks and with Tua under center possesses enough offensive firepower to force opponents into a pass heavy game script. I believe Jacobs will struggle with efficiency in this matchup.

This isn't a guy to hit three unders in a row. It's been almost an entire season in fact. Romeo Doubs is likely out with a concussion and that should benefit Reed who is still listed as WR1. Josh Jacobs has dominated in recent weeks and MIA’s defense will have to load the box and focus on stopping the run which could lead to more Yards per catch for Reed. The Model has him projected for 62.

Cold weather doesn't call for airborne attack but playing from behind does. I think the Packers will find themselves in an early lead here forcing Tua's hand. Green Bay's defense is tied for 2nd in the league in turnovers (7th in INTs) and have Xavier McKinney (league leader with 7 INTs). Trends of the past tell us that Tua melts down against good teams, and it's not coincidence most are in bad weather.

The last game of the Thanksgiving slate will be a frigid one. Below freezing temperatures are expected on Thursday night in Lambeau Field. Add 10-15 MPH winds, and the real feel on the field will be closer to 10 degrees. I expect the Packers to give the Dolphins a heavy dose of RB Josh Jacobs on the ground. The Dolphins are 4-1 to the Under on the road this season, and QB Tua Tagovailoa has historically struggled in cold weather. Now that the key number of 48 has popped up, grab the Under and some of those pocket hand warmers for this game.

The Dolphins have been rolling, winning three-straight and averaging over 30 points per game in the process. However, two of those three wins came against the Patriots and Raiders. What this pick comes down to for me is the weather forecast in Green Bay on Thanksgiving night. Tua's cold weather struggles are well documented, and the forecast at kickoff for this game is 27 degrees with 10 MPH wind and a slight chance of rain (as of today). On top of the weather, Green Bay is a solid defensive team. Tua may surprise me, but I just can't see him going over this number here.

I give Green Bay several edges in this spot. They won’t travel on a short week, they play well in the cold, they are better coached and their overall talent is superior. They find a way to win v a Miami team that doesn’t beat good teams on the road on short weeks in freezing weather.

Seems like a very reasonable price considering what Josh Jacobs did last week to a once-vaunted SF rush defense and that Thursday figures to be run-heavy vs. Miami with below-freezing temps and some wind at Lambeau. The Dolphins have allowed 10 rushing scores and might be down two starting defenders.

This is not shaping up to be Tua's kind of game. It's on the road, vs a legit defense, and a winning opponent ... oh yeah and the real feel at kickoff should be around 20 degrees. When kickoff temp is 50 or lower he has 11 picks in 7 games. In his last 12 games against winning teams he has thrown 11 picks. Green Bay is a high turnover team and the home-field advantage will be very real here. Miami is a timing and tempo offense and their inability to run the ball will lead to too many dropbacks, which is more opportunities for picks.

I still don't think the Dolphins are properly rated due to the wild swings in personnel early in the season, with Tua out and Tyreek injured. On the defensive side of the ball, they're playing well, and offensively Tua has a number of great options in Jonnu Smith, De'Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle, and, of course, Tyreek Hill. Green Bay is dealing with injuries in key spots on the short week, with Doubs in concussion protocol and Jaire Alexander managing a torn PCL. I set the Packers at -1.8 here at home on the short week.

You back the Fish at home vs crappy teams; not on the road vs strong clubs. Especially not strong cold weather clubs, playing in the elements. It will be plenty cold and possibly rainy on Turkey Day on Wisconsin. Tua is 1-6 when it’s under 50 degrees (should be in the 30s), completing 58.6% of his passes with 8 TDs and 11 INTs. Miami cant run the ball this season and Packers can bully them. Matt LaFleur is 25-5 at home outside of the NFC North. Tua is 3-9 ATS in his last 12 games against winning teams, failing to cover all 9 by 4.5 points or more (lowly 86.5 rating in those games). Dolphins are 1-8 ATS in games under 40 degrees since 2017.

The Dolphins have won three straight thanks in large part to their defense, which held the Patriots scoreless until the fourth quarter on Sunday. Five straight opponents have failed to rush for 100 yards, and the run game is what the Packers leaned on against the 49ers. Jordan Love didn't look great for much of that one, and he's unlikely to have Romeo Doubs (concussion) in this matchup. I'm also counting on Jaire Alexander not being back on the short week, which will make the Dolphins much more difficult to defend. I wanted to lean Packers with the expected cold temperature and home-field advantage, but the Dolphins roster is in a much better spot right now.