I'm backing the Colts today at 7 or better against the ATS juggernaut that's been the Detroit Lions this season. Anthony Richardson comes into this game fresh off his best effort as a passer this season, riding a bit of momentum even in the face of a rushing attack that ground to a halt against the Jets. Richardson has been a good bet in his career in the role of underdog going 6-2 ATS and I think that mark gets better here. Bet against the Lions at your own peril but nobody has ever accused me of being the smartest guy in the room.

This would generally be a fade spot for Lions, but there is a lot of unfounded, sudden belief in Anthony Richardson after his best effort of the season. That came against the flawed Jets, whom the Colts still allowed 27 points. Detroit has the NFL's best offense. The defense has suffered significant injuries, but it has dominated inconstant quarterbacks. I need more than one week to buy into AR as completely revitalized after having watched every start he’s made in his college and Colts careers. He will get there, but I don’t see him taking advantage of the Lions like Baker Mayfield and CJ Stroud did. Detroit is 4-1 ATS on the road with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs against the NFL’s fifth-worst run defense.

Anthony Richardson scored twice last week against the Jets, and has another favorable matchup against the Lions here. Detroit plays a ton of man coverage, which should allow Richardson to attack the edges with his legs. Detroit will be without their best tackler, LB Alex Anzalone. I like Richardson to find the end zone once more this Sunday. He should be playing hungry, in an effort to prove to the Colts that he deserves the starting job. I played Richardson’s Over rushing yards prop, and I’ll also place a half unit wager on him to score.

Colts QB Anthony Richardson is coming off the best performance of his career last week. I expect him to look fairly comfortable against a Lions defense that has had issues containing mobile QB’s. Detroit has allowed 35+ rushing yards to Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Geno Smith. They even allowed Titans backup QB Mason Rudolph to run for 29 yards and a TD. Richardson rushed 10 times last week and scored twice. If the Colts are in a negative game script, this has an even better chance of hitting. I am considering laddering this up to 70+ Rush yards at +370.

What gives the Colts a chance in this game is their defensive line. We know Goff doesn't do particularly well when faced with pressure and the Colts have ratcheted up the pressure as of late. On the other side of the ball, this team with Anthony Richardson can find big plays in the passing game to make this a track meet.

While pricy it also feels somewhat cheap on Detroit's David Montgomery, who comes off a two-TD game. The Colts are near the bottom of the NFL in allowing 143.1 YPG and eight different players have rushed for a score against that unit. Monty has scored in every game but two.

Colts safety Nick Cross is enjoying a breakout season and has played virtually every defensive snap. He's blazing fast and plays all over the field: deep safety, in the box, slot corner, linebacker and more. This is a great matchup for Cross, as the Lions run a lot of plays (62.4 per game) and attack the middle of the field often. Look for Cross to be heavily involved Sunday.

Aaron Glenn's aggressive defense and his affinity for man coverage opens up rushing lanes for quarterbacks. That sets up Anthony Richardson for a big rushing day after he ran 10 times for 32 yards in his return to the startling lineup last week. The Lions have lost four defensive starters to injury, and all four were important to stopping runs on the perimeter. Look for Richardson to exploit that Sunday.

The Lions travel to Indianapolis where they’re the best cover team facing the Colts, the number two best cover team. The Lions are in 8-2 ATS and the Colts are 8-3 ATS. But the Colts have lost three of their last four. The Lions are undefeated on the road and they've covered four or five. I think this game will end the Lions average score which is 33-17. The Lions don’t have weak spot. Lions cover.

The Colts are one of the league's most reliable zone coverage defenses, and they even play Cover-3 at the second-highest rate in the league. They also are among the worst in the NFL in pass rush pressure rate, not that it matters because Goff is well protected, but the point is that he'll have time to process the defense and make throws. When Goff has seen Cover-3 this year he's completed 77% of his throws, and when he's thrown against Cover-3 without any pass rush pressure, that rate rises to 83.5%. I also happen to think the Colts will be competitive in this game, making it less likely that Goff will leave the game early like he did against Dallas, Tennessee and Jacksonville.

We ride the hot streak of Indianapolis' kicker for another week. He's made multiple field goals in eight straight games, so why stop now? Plus Detroit has allowed multiple three-pointers in 5 of their last 6 games. We're getting nearly even money for the trend continuing...I like it.

He is so difficult to cover and understands how to beat zones and find the soft spots and Jared Goff trusts him like mad in the redzone and he can also dance in from distance with YAC. Sam LaPorta coming back might help him find more space vs the Colts D. I have to keep riding this at these odds with it hitting in 8 straight games.

This is basically an auto-play for me at this point. Colts pass D has been okay but Aaron Rodgers of all people just did this and Goff is on fire, He has hit this in 7 of the last 8 games and even did it against a different AFC South team despite throwing 5 picks in that game, And is looks like Sam LaPorta is coming back, too. So many weapons and no issues with weather to worry about. Great day to pitch and catch.

Both teams have played similar strength of schedules so far this season. This is the absolute top of the market for the Detroit Lions after scoring 50+ points in two of their past four games. My betting Model makes the Lions a favorite of 8.4 points. However, it would help if you took that with a grain of salt, as the Colts have been ravaged by injuries to their front seven and, of course, the QB shuffle. Shane Steichen has a brilliant mind, and I will trust him to keep this one close as they try to save their season. It’s worth noting that the Lions have struggled relatively (one possession wins) against QBs (Stroud & Murray), who average at least 5.0 yards per rush.

It's scary to get in front of this Lions' juggernaut, but this is the spot. Detroit just lost defensive captain and middle linebacker Alex Anzalone to a broken forearm, weakening a unit already down several players, including stud Aidan Hutchinson. The Colts are rejuvenated after last week's comeback win over the Jets, with Anthony Richardson showing why he was drafted No. 4 overall. Indy is 6-1 ATS with Richardson starting. Detroit also has its annual Thanksgiving game on deck. Look for a narrow Lions' win.

The Lions have tied a record with three wins of 38+ points in one season, and now seems like the perfect time to fade them. The Colts aren't as much of a pushover as teams like the Cowboys and Jaguars, with a healthy defense that's playing well and a QB in Anthony Richardson coming off his best game of the season. The Lions lost another key defensive piece in the win over the Jaguars with Alex Anzalone out 6-8 weeks, and at some point a solid team should be able to get in the backdoor and cover. I think this line is two points too high with the excitement over the Lions, so I'll step in front of the steaming train and fade them.

Lions games are bonkers, especially against the lowly AFC South this season (3 games averaging 58 points). Colts games vs the NFC North have been low scoring, but they aint seen an offense like this rolling into their dome where it's always a fast track and a great day to pitch and catch. Colts D stinks on 3rd down, which will be a big problem here, and Indy offense came to life with Anthony Richardson back at QB last week. Five of the last 7 Lions games are 56+; Colts have played two straight at 50+ and are 10-4 to the over at home since start of last season. This ticked up half a point everywhere since Sunday and will move up I figure.