While I'm sure Mike Tomlin would prefer to run the ball all day as that's who he is, the Ravens simply can't stop the pass. The SportsLine AI has Wilson at nearly 280 yards passing. No weather worries in Pittsburgh.

Backing the Steelers has been fruitful the last month; 80% of the time, I’d lean on the home team getting a FG in strong divisional rivalry like this. What pushes me to the Ravens is the rest advantage, the motivational edge for Lamar Jackson and Mike Tomlin’s crew not having a prove-it win. Baltimore enters with the top-ranked offense, a balanced test the likes of which Pittsburgh has not faced. The Ravens have struggled against the pass but already overcome more dynamic tests than Russell Wilson, who has been fantastic taking over behind center. Todd Monken’s offense was twice held to 10 points by the Steelers last season, the first due to crazy circumstances; the second with Tyler Huntley. Ravens get right against their rivals.

Both teams have more offensive punch than in years past but this one should still look like... the Ravens and Steelers. Pittsburgh's No. 2-ranked scoring defense and what should be a return to its ground-and-pound approach will keep this Under the total.

Baltimore is the best offensive team in the NFL right now, and Pittsburgh has been noticeably better with Russell Wilson running the show. Lamar Jackson would get my NFL MVP vote if the season ended today, and Derrick Henry is on track to potentially win another rushing title. I see this game ending with a final score in the 27-24 range.

Zay Flowers has had a knack this season for exploding one week, and then disappearing the next. Last week, Flowers had just 4 catches for 36 yards (after going for 5/127/2TDs the week prior). This week, he will face a Steelers defense that plays a ton of zone coverage, specifically Cover 3. Flowers has the NFL’s 2nd most targets against Cover 3 defenses. He thrives in space, and can pick up yards after the catch with his elusiveness. Following a sleepy Week 10, I expect Flowers to get involved early and often in this important divisional clash.

Series trends say low-scoring...the last seven Ravens-Steelers meetings have landed under, with both scorelines at 17-10 a year ago (favoring Pittsburgh). It's a different season, however, and now both of these teams are going over (Baltimore the past six and Pittsburgh the past four). Of course, a difference for the Ravens this campaign is Derrick Henry, who has been able to flash all of his big-play chops with Lamar Jackson requiring so much big-play attention from enemy defenses. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is 3-0 with Russell Wilson at QB and 30.3 ppg. Indeed, there are some new dynamics to consider in the mix for this colorful Ravens-Steelers feud. Play Ravens-Steelers Over

Sunday, there is no doubt that the Pittsburgh Steelers will have success offensively against the Ravens poor secondary that ranks last in the NFL. The question is can they consistently keep up with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense for four quarters on a small spread. With Baltimore having the rest advantage look for that to be the difference in the second half.

The coaches love this kid, who was starting to make his mark in this offense with his speed and explosion prior to a gruesome knee injury. He's looking twitched up and ready in practice and got a nice respite after making his season debut last Thursday. He can take a screen pass to the house and I expect him to play more in this game than most would expect. Steelers rushing D struggles with speed, not size and brawn. A pony package with Derrick Henry is a possibility as well.

The Steelers defense is best in the NFL at stopping runs out of heavy personnel that the Ravens favor with Derrick Henry (21, 22, 12, 13). Ravens are only 14th in EPA on designed runs the last 3 weeks and PIT is vulnerable to runs with speedy backs out of 11 personnel in spread formations, Mitchell is an elite burner who got back in the mix last week after a lengthy return from knee surgery. Tyronne Tracy is the one back to gouge the Steelers; Mitchell won't get that kind of volume but I could see him getting 3-5 carries and breaking a long one or two.

The 7-3 Ravens travel to the 7-2 Steelers and Pittsburgh has owned the series over the years winning seven of the last eight including the last three. The series has been all about defense with the last seven meetings being under. Lamar Jackson has thrown 14 touchdowns in his last four games with no interceptions. The Ravens have the No. 1 offense averaging 440 yards per game with the No. 1 rushing game averaging 182 yards per game. The problem they’ve had this year is stopping teams with the 27th-ranked defense allowing 367 yards per game. They have the worst pass defense in the league allowing 294 yards per game. The Steelers have won their last four and their last three with Wilson starting. Steelers.

I don't typically play interception props as I feel they are high variance, this is one I like quite a bit. The Ravens are a significant pass funnel as a result of having an elite run defense paired with a very vulnerable pass defense. While Russ is playing well, he also throws a lot of 50/50 balls and Baltimore has no shortage of playmakers in their secondary. I also think Pittsburgh could be forced to play from behind and we see a potential uptick in passing volume from Wilson and the Steelers.

Lamar Jackson is looking for his first win against the Steelers since 2019, and I believe he gets it with this team. The offense is the best in the league, ranking first in net yards per pass attempt and yards per rush. The defense is going to have Kyle Hamilton after the star safety practiced in full on Friday. That makes things difficult for a Steelers team that hasn't been tested that much this season, and while I have them above average in my ratings, I still make this line Ravens -3.5.

Overriding QB Lamar Jackson's dreadful stats against the Steelers is this: He has piloted the Ravens on a 7-1 straight-up streak with 22 (22!) TD passes and one (one!) interception. He need not worry about Pittsburgh's ace LB, Alex Highsmith, idled by an injury. The Ravens can strike on the deep ball, which Pittsburgh is subpar at defending. No doubt the Steelers can hit big plays as well against a vulnerable D with the resurrected QB Russell Wilson. In a possible points-fest, the safe play is almost always Baltimore as long as Jackson is on fire.

The Ravens' secondary has been a weakness this season and I think Russell Wilson exploits it on Sunday. Eight quarterbacks have already surpassed the 260 yard passing mark vs. Baltimore in the first ten weeks, so this line seems much too low. Plus I think the game could go back and forth with shootout potential. I would play this up to at least 240...

Jackson is making it look easy and I understand how good this Steelers defense is, but you also can't cover everyone with the way this QB is spreading the ball around. Jacksons has hit this in 6 of the last 7 games and 4 in a row - he has 14(!) passing TDs in that span. Jackson has 21 passing TDs in his last 7 games and it looks for Isaiah Likely to be back for this one, also.

Jackson is over this in all four career games vs the Steelers and I expect his legs to be unleashed in a big way after barely running the previous two games while barely practicing due to back and knee issues. He will have 9 days off before this game, and Ravens designed runs have sunk last 3 weeks as teams adjust (14th in EPA). Speed runs out of 11 personnel are the way to go vs the Steelers. These are always tight games and every yard counts. I expect explosive runs by design for the QB.

Pickens is averaging - averaging - 19.7/catch since Russell Wilson took over and activated the play action deep game. Ravens have allowed 29 completions of 25 yards or more (3/game!), which is 2 more than any other team. Ravens zone defense is pathetic, and they don't have an NFL caliber free safety, so there's that. And Kyle Hamilton probably is not playing in this game and Ravens have a tepid pass rush. Russ throwing more deep balls than ever. He is winning 50/50 balls and Ravens CB Brandon Stephens has minimal ball skills. Ravens don't travel corners so Marlon Humphrey will only see so much of Pickens.

Mike Tomlin has win 17 of 27 career games as a home dog. He's won 11 of the past 16 dating back to 2017. He's won 7 of his last 8 vs the Ravens. BAL is getting weary with a very late bye, and is just 14th in rushing EPA over the last 3 weeks. CLE, CIN and DEN have bottled up the run game. BAL right side of OL will be an issue on the road and Russell Wilson doesn't turn ball over. PIT +80 PD in 2nd half (BAL just +7). PIT and elite TOP club; can limit Lamar's possessions. Roquan Smith is a liability and Arthur Smith can attack it with RBs and TEs. BAL bad vs 12 and 13 personnel.

These are always one-score games and this rivalry is defined by a FG here or there. PIT has won 7 of the last 8, and have far superior special teams and defense. And they have the better kicker. I love Mike Tomlin as a home dog - 18-6-3 ATS in his career and 12-3-1 since 2017. I was greedy and wanted to see if this got to 4, but it's going the other way from 3.5 for I'll pounce now. Ravens allowing 30 PPG on road; no pass rush and broken secondary. And a beat up Kyle Hamilton. Steelers are a top 10 EPA passing game during their 4-game win streak.

Ravens are 9-1 to the over, with game averaging 57.1 points (2.5 more than any other team). Their over margin is NFL-high 9.4/G. They can score 30 on everyone and give up 30 to everyone. PIT has elite scoring D but hasn't seen this version of Lamar Jackson. PIT averaging 30 PPG during 4 game win streak. Ravens D even worse on road; even CLE scored 29 on them. Allowing 30/G on road. Only 1 BAL game has gone under 47; 3 of last 6 PIT games played in the 50s. Six straight Ravens games played at 51 or higher.