Waited until closer to kickoff hoping the hook would disappear from this line but alas. This is a spot where we are going to fade Washington coming off a huge win behind rookie sensation Jayden Daniels. He’s going to get his against Arizona, which is coming off a loss to Detroit in which its offense was stifled. That will not be the case against a Commanders D allowing nearly 30 points per game. Expecting a little regression to the mean for Daniels and Kyler Murray to have an explosive day at home leading the fourth-best scoring offense in the NFL. Buy this at -3 (-115 or better) if you can.

Jayden Daniels looks terrific so far -- unfortunately a lot better than Caleb Williams but a long way to go -- but it's a short week off a MNF road game for the Commanders, and they are down top pass-rusher Clelin Ferrell again as well as RB Austin Ekeler. He might not be hugely missed as a running back with Brian Robinson in line for a heavy workload, but Ekeler had been returning kickoffs and doing that quite well. Daniels also can't play defense with Washington ranking 31st in passing yards allowed per play (7.7) and 30th in rushing yards allowed per play (5.1).

Another play where the public is heavily on the over. The total has been bouncing around a lot but both teams are averaging over 26 points per game. Washington continues to have injuries in their secondary and are allowing 377.3 yards to their opponents. The Cardinals are averaging 383 yards at home and should have success against this struggling secondary. Arizona’s defense is also allowing 8.3 yards per pass at home and both quarterbacks have the ability to run and get their team down the field quickly.

I was hoping to get a better number here, but we're going to go ahead and play it anyway. The Commanders haven't had to punt since Week 1 and Jayden Daniels looked incredible on Monday, but even with the offense at peak performance an awful Washington defense has allowed teams to hang around as all three opponents have averaged at least six yards per play. While the Cardinals won't have Trey McBride, attacking these Commanders corners more by throwing it to receivers is never a bad thing. If Washington's offense has another peak game, I can still see Arizona winning by 3, but I'm counting on things not going so perfectly this week.

Waited all week for the spread to dip to an even three. No such luck. Still, the Cardinals are the pick largely because of the harsh schedule card dealt to Washington -- a Monday night roadie followed by a Sunday afternoon away game three time zones away. As awesome as QB Jayden Daniels has been, this is a quick turn-around for a rookie who could use more prep time. He will not have injured RB Austin Ekeler, either. Counterpart Kyler Murray has been nearly as sharp as the Cardinals lost to formidable Buffalo and Detroit by a one-score margin and blasted the Rams. Murray could make mincemeat of a defense that has yielded the second most passing yards and too many TDs.

Both offenses in this matchup are capable of erupting and scoring in a hurry. Jayden Daniels is the Offensive Rookie of the Year front-runner, and he will make things difficult for the Arizona defense. Kyler Murray has similar ability, and rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. has been as good as advertised. This is a game I see ending up with a point total in the 50's.

Marvin Harrison should feast against the Commanders secondary, which ranks dead last in defending opposing WR1s. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is adept at scrambling and extending plays. I expect Murray and Harrison to connect downfield often when coverage breaks down on those "broken plays." Harrison is beginning to emerge as the star we thought he would be, and he will shine against the Commanders.

Washington continues to trot out the NFL's worst defense and was unable to force a single punt in Cincinnati on Monday. Even without Trey McBride, Arizona brings a potent offense and should be able to score at least 27. The Cards rank fourth in scoring (27.3), seventh in total offense (345.3) and ninth in yards per play (5.9). They'll face a tired Washington defense that played a road game Monday, then traveled west. Look for Arizona to clear this number for the third time in four tries this season.

No trade McBride means Michael Wilson should get plenty of target share. This number is only going up

Kyler Murray and the Cardinals passing offense have quietly been elite. Murray and company get a mouth watering matchup against a Commanders pass defense that has been torched by every opposing QB they’ve faced and rank dead last in Dropback Successs %. The Cardinals will be without their starting Tight End Trey McBride, who has also served as Kyler Murray’s security blanket and his absence will open up a lot of targets. I believe a good chunk of those targets will get funneled to Dortch who primarily operates in the same areas of the field (short and intermediate). While Dortch hasn’t displayed elite route participation, he has drawn targets at a healthy rate when on the field while almost exclusively playing out of the slot.

Commanders secondary is still a mess. They have allowed 9 passing TDs already this season - most in the NFL. They have allowed 49 passing TDs since the start of last season - 9 more than any other NFL team. Kyler will be looking to showout vs his former coach, who he hates. And to out-do Jayden Daniels. He has all kinds of favorable match ups here. I project him to throw for 3 TDs here.

We'll bump this one up to 1.5 units because I'm confident in Prater making 2+ field goals for the fourth straight game. Washington gave up three field goal attempts vs. Tampa Bay and Cincinnati (we'll ignore the Giants in Week 2 since their offense can be painful) and this game has plenty of shootout potential. Prater is now 7-4 to the over this prop since Kyler Murray's return midway through last season.

The Commanders have given up NINE receiving touchdowns to WRs in their first three games including two to Mike Evans in Week 1, one to Malik Nabers in Week 2, and two to Ja'Marr Chase in Week 3. This prop is as low as -140 on other sportsbooks so we're getting great value at even money with Harrison scoring for the third straight game in Arizona.

In what the oddsmakers think will be a shootout, this total is simply too low for the Cardinals' top wide receiver, especially since tight end Trey McBride is likely to miss the game with a concussion. Harrison's targets have gone from 3 to 8 to 11 and we've seen top wide receivers rip apart Washington's secondary this season (Malik Nabers 10-127-1, Ja'Marr Chase 6-118-2 in the last two weeks). I think this line should be closer to ten yards higher so let's roll with the over and hope for a fun game in the desert.

I expect both these QBs to be putting on a show here and Daniels just finished two drives with his legs in Week 1 and is running quite a bit and this is a bad run D that has allowed 7 TDs to QBs since start of last season (3rd most), and are 28th in run D EPA vs QBs in that span and Josh Allen just ran for 2 against them in a comeback vs Cards in Week 1. These kind of QBs find a lot of joy on the ground vs them, even in tight quarters.

These two profile as similar teams with dynamic offenses and questionable defenses, which should lead to a tight back-and-forth game. The spread has come down, but I'm more interested in the total, even as high as it is. Both teams have played two shootouts and one game where the scoreboard didn't match the success of the offenses. The only thing that could stop us here is the run games having success and limiting the amount of possessions, but I'm betting one team gets to 30 and the other isn't far behind.

Both teams can't play much defense and want to let showcase their young, super-athletic QBs. Commanders road games with Jayden Daniels have totaled 57 and 71 points. AZ has totals of 62 and 51 already this season, and only low score came because Rams were cooked midway through 2n quarter. Commandos gave up 436 yards and 33 pts at CIN and 392 and 37 at TB. Should be lots of big plays. AZ 7-2-1 to over at home since start of 23 with an avg game score of 51. WSH 7-4 to over on road in same span, average game score over 53. Kliff Kingbury will be chasing points vs former team. Trends lately say go under on 50-plus totals; this is an exception.