Josh Allen is 6-0 SU in Thursday night games. However, their defense may have regressed a little bit, especially in the secondary, but were able to adjust in the second half to comeback and beat Arizona. Allen is also 6-1 SU against the Dolphins since 2020. However, Miami appeared to have a much-improved defense despite losing key players in free agency or to PUP list. The main concern is Allen being able to move the downfield on this improved secondary and the public may lean on the Allen TNF narrative.

Josh Allen's Bills are 6-1 SU against Tua Tagovailoa's Dolphins, and 4-2-1 ATS. Miami is 2-11 SU against Allen, who seems to have their number each year. Allen thrives on the short week, going 6-0 in Thursday games in his career. Miami's defense is still missing some key pieces, and CB Jalen Ramsey appears to have a lingering hamstring issue. Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert has been ruled out, and RB Devon Achane's ankle issue has him listed as a game time decision. The Bills have also done a solid job of limiting Tyreek Hill's production in their last five matchups, since he joined the Dolphins. This is a tough short week for Miami to draw a Buffalo offense that remains dangerous.

The Bills don't have a true No. 1 receiver yet. In Week 1, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir and Mack Hollins all ran at least 20 routes, while Curtis Samuel ran nine. Hollins potentially could eclipse this mark in one catch, but I expect him to make at least two grabs. The Bills threw just 23 times last week but are projected to throw at least 30 times Thursday in a potential shootout.

It's fine if your book has 22.5 completions at lower juice as I think both numbers will hit. Regardless of who the RB is for Miami, we're likely to see inefficiency from the Miami running game, similar to what we witnessed last week. The Bills have a completely revamped secondary and they are likely to allow Tua to dink and dunk underneath rather than get beat deep by Tyreek Hill. Tua Tagovailoa loves to get the ball out early and often, and in a neutral or trailing game script, I expect him to do just that.

Rookies know how to perform against Miami's defense. Aside from Xavier Worthy, Brian Thomas Jr. had himself a strong rookie debut against this Miami defense last week. If Khalil Shakir takes the "WR 1" role, it could open things up for Keon Coleman here. The rookie collected 4 carries (5 targets) last week, and we see no reason he won't get there again. The Sportsline Model Projection is 4.1.

We aren't asking anything out of the ordinary of Josh Allen. His historical trends against this team are strong and he eclipsed this outing in their last meeting in January. Wind conditions from last weekend are playing a role in the pricing of this line, and we will see more favorable conditions in South Florida this evening. Allen is 29-20 on the road with a 1.8 average, and that is exactly where we have him projected tonight in the Sportsline Model.

The market has overreacted to this "Digg-less" offense. Without Stefon Diggs, this offense has opened up allowed three to four receivers to have the same target share. Jalen Ramsey will only be able to "lock down" one. This feels like a version of the Packers' offense down the stretch last season. The Sportsline Model gives the Bills a 57% chance to take this game, so any plus money wager is certainly value compared to our model.

Tuna has 3 carries in just 2/16 games he’s played and didn’t get 3 carries v Buffalo in either game last year. Perhaps we get bit by kneel downs but let’s take a half unit play here

We have known Moestart is out so now Wilson is up. I think he can exceed 30 yards….take a rare over

Cook rushed for 19 carries and 71 yards in Week 1 against Arizona. Buffalo continued to feed Cook carries, even when they were down multiple scores. On a short week, time of possession will be key in this matchup. Look for the Bills to attack Miami on the ground while their defense is still without Bradley Chubb and Christian Wilkins. Buffalo still has much to figure out with their new look wide receiver corps. Cook is perhaps the most steady and reliable option in this current Buffalo offense. Play James Cook over his rushing yards total.

This feels 5-8 yards too low considering this game has a 49 point total and is being played in Florida. Jaylen Waddle was hyper efficient in Week 1 turning 5 targets into 5 receptions for 109 yards, despite missing an entire quarter while being evaluated for a concussion. The Dolphins have an extremely concentrated target distribution and with both of Miami's top RBs potentially missing this game, we could see some additional passing volume.

The Bills are a RUNING TEAM. They ran 66 plays last week, Allen completed almost 75% and he was still nowhere near this number. This won’t last

Tyreek Hill drew 12 targets in Week 1 and I expect another huge target share Thursday. De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert combined for 10 targets last week; Mostert is out and Achane (ankle) is a gametime decision. Without a successful running game against Jacksonville, Miami called a ton of pass plays at or behind the line of scrimmage. So Hill could get several quick throws. It doesn't hurt that Bills corner Taron Johnson (forearm) is out.

This is one of those instances where what we saw last makes us believe that's the truth. In the case of the Dolphins, we saw them go down 14-0 and come back to when and steal the win at home 20-17. It was a struggle no doubt about it. In the Bills case, we saw the Cardinals playing tough and held the ball on long drives, kept it out of their hands, but once the Bills let loose they scored on almost every position in the second half. Reminder that it was the Cardinals defense at Buffalo. Bills have won the last four meetings. Miami has covered three of the last five meetings. Dolphins win.

SportsLine's AI has Tua Tagovailoa finishing with 312.2 yards passing. Tua historically has been much better at home and might have to throw a ton with Raheem Mostert out and possibly De'Von Achane too.

We liked Buffalo here so we jumped it on Sunday, comfortable with the plus-money ML play. The line has moved in our favor and we'll take the extra points. This has been a bad matchup for Miami and its skill players and I don't buy the Miami defense. Bills can bully them at line of scrimmage and control the clock. Miami's beat up backfield could be a problem for the Fish

Josh Allen Over 36.5 Rush Yards -113: Josh Allen's legs remain the Bills power source inside the red zone. Doesn't look like that is going away and I'm gambling his hand is okay here. He averages 35 rush yd/G in his career vs MIA and he has 47+ in 4 of his last 5 vs them. He has averaged 9 rushes/g vs them in that span; he gets that kind of volume vs this defense he will break a few. Volume in Bills run game isn't going away; it's who they are since losing to Broncos in primetime in the middle of last season.

This line has moved in several places, but I personally bet it on DraftKings after writing this up so I know it's still there. Raheem Mostert has been ruled out and Achane got tons of goal line work even when Mostert was in there. There's some health risk with Achane banged up but this should really be closer to -125 (it will end up being around -150 which is way too pricey).

The Bills got involved in a serious back and forth with the Cardinals on Sunday and I expect the Dolphins to have much more success through the air than they did against the Jaguars. The team was discombobulated by the Tyreek Hill arrest, Jacksonville is sneaky on defense and Buffalo can be attacked vertically. Conversely, I don't think Miami will slow down Josh Allen, and we might see a Dalton Kincaid explosion game on TNF.

Both teams have a short week, but I believe it affects Miami more due to their injury report. The Bills catch a bit of a break from the South Florida heat with a primetime kickoff. Miami had no business beating Jacksonville in Week 1, while Josh Allen was excellent for the Bills. Allen's ability in the running game will make the difference. I set the Bills as a -1.5 road favorite for Week 2.

I'm not sure either of these defenses is all that, but I do know the Fins can't beat playoff teams and BUF will win this division - again. Josh Allen owns the Fish (10-2 vs them with a 110.3 rating and over 35 yd/G on the ground) and Tua can't do anything vs BUF (1-6 vs Sean McDermott's D with a 77.4 rating and 6 TD to 7 INT). Bills have won at MIA early season with the heat and the late kickoff will help that. McDermott is 8-5-1 ATS vs Miami. Fins usually start hot but out of kilter offensively last week; bad sign for them.