It's been baffling at times why he hasn't run more this season given his athleticism and vision. No better time than the present. Everything on the line and a SF front four that will test this OL in ways most teams can't. More of a challenge that Dallas last week and the coverage should be a little more sticky, too. A keeper on short yardage and a few scrambles past the line of scrimmage. Maybe a knee-down at the end of the half, or, dare I say it ... game?

Tough one given how Jordan Love and the Packers offense has improved since midseason. Dallas was flawed and played its worst game as Green Bay’s O was perfect. San Francisco is far better across the middle of the field. It has the best RB in Christian McCaffrey, and Deebo Samuel can beat you a myriad of ways. Kyle Shanahan has won four straight home playoff games by 14.8 points, three of the four wins by 17+. There may be some early rust for the Niners, but the Packers defense is still bottom tier; it won’t contain these weapons for 60 minutes. There will be plenty of points, but the 49ers should pull away late. Buy 9.5 up to -120; 10 is the fifth-most common margin.

Jones has hit triple digits in rushing yards in four straight contests. While the dual-threat RB will still be crucial to Green Bay's game plan, his rushing effectiveness will be limited by San Francisco's third-ranked rushing defense. Take this total Under. .

George Kittle averages nine targets per game this year at home. The Packers' scheme isn’t great vs. tight ends. I project 5.25 catches.

Purdy averages 310 passing yards at home. He is incredibly efficient at his park, and the Pack are beat up in the secondary. Too many weapons to stay under.

Earlier this week I stated that I wanted to wait to see if this line moved to +10 and then I may need to take it: well here we are. I love the 49ers in general and they are my pre-season Super Bowl pick, but this feels like too many points to provide to an offense that is very healthy and which is moving the ball at an incredible pace. The 49ers have the rest advantage and have the overall better team, but a double digit spread is unwarranted for a team that has proven themselves as a playoff threat (a back door cover certainly in play here as well).

Wasn't sure this would get back to 10 -- some say buying points isn't worth it, but +10.5 is only -125 at DraftKings. While I tend to think this is either down to the wire or a Niners blowout, -125 seems worth it to me. It so irks me how the Packers manage to luck into yet another franchise quarterback, although at this point guess we can't call it luck. The Bears could go to a Golden Corral buffet chock full of good quarterbacks and would order a long snapper instead. (Do they have snapper at GC? If so, you are braver than I to eat fish there.) Hopefully that changes in late April. The Niners haven't played a meaningful game in several weeks.

First things first, as it's been raining most of the week in the Bay Area. We'll see how that impacts the 49ers, who didn't play in such conditions this season. The week off after the regular season might not be a plus, either, especially as some Niners (like Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey) will be seeing their first action in three weeks on Saturday night. Technical factors also suggest this might not be an easy night for SF, as the Niners haven't covered a spread in their last five at Levi's (depending on what spread used for the Tampa Bay win on Nov. 19), while the Pack has not only covered, but won outright in its last five as an underdog. Play Packers

George Kittle has a dream matchup against Joe Barry's zone scheme. Jake Ferguson had a monster game last week and I expect Kittle to follow suit. Look for Kittle to clear this number for the ninth time in his last 11 games.

Love's been over this in three straight games and in 4 of his past 5. He's been hot and clearly capable of defeating a strong pass rush, which he did last week at Dallas. A 4.8% sack rate (third-best in football) confirms that he can escape pressure and throw downfield. His receivers are capable of making plays after the catch and the likelihood of him trailing against the Niners only makes this outcome stronger. It's also a much better buy than taking the over on his 35.5 pass attempts. I've seen this as high as 251.5 -- and I'd still take the over on that number.

Jordan Love has shown us that he has a big arm and can make all of the throws need by a star QB. Love is just lacking experience. My model has Green Bay trailing the entire game but more importantly they could be down two or three touchdowns forcing the Packers to throw every down. I bet a unit and a half on this prop.

49ers TE George Kittle is the 2nd best receiving TE in the NFL right behind Travis Kelce. My model has Kittle hauling in 4.9 receptions for 62.5 yards.

The Packers played an amazing game last week at Dallas. Jordan Love was almost perfect and Aaron Jones had a tremoundous game. The San Francisco 49ers have an extra week to rest and get continue to get healthier. The 49ers are the best team in the NFL by four poins. My model has SF by 12 and you can add 2.5 points for the week off. SF just has too many stars versus the no name Packers.

Brandon Aiyuk is having a career season and his efficiency has been off the charts. Aiyuk had a career best 1300 receiving yards despite receiving double digit targets in a game just one time this season. He gets a fantastic matchup agaist a GB pass defense that ranks in the bottom five in nearly every defensive passing metric. The Packers have also been very vulnerable covering the splash zone (deep down the middle of the field) where Aiyuk is the most targeted WR in the league. This has potential ceiling game written all over it.

Unless the 49ers decide to abandon the run, this Purdy line simply seems too high. Purdy is under this number in 13 of 16 games because the passing volume isn't there. He's also thrown the ball 30 times or less in 13 games. With game flow likely in San Francisco's favor, expect the 49ers to lean on their rushing attack in the second half as they try to sit on a lead.

Green Bay is rolling offensively, but they have had some issues on the other side of the ball. McCaffrey was the best running back in the NFL this season, and is one of the best all-purpose backs the league has ever seen. I expect Kyle Shanahan to lean heavily on McCaffrey on Saturday night, with the surprise MVP candidate having a highly productive game.

It's time for Jordan Love to get uncomfortable again. Love got to sit in the pocket against Dallas' pass rush, but SF will give them a far tougher time. They will force Love to play more like he did in the first half of the season, where the over was 9-3 (first 3 months). We are getting a low line here because the over is just 1-5 down the stretch with his dominating pass game, but again this Niners defense will flush him out of the pocket and force him to use his athleticism.

Aaron Jones has caught steam. He's had 130+ rushing and receiving yards the last 4 games. And while the Niners defense is far more superior than any other opponent in that stretch, we should still be able to eclipse this lower number solely based on his usage (22+ touches). The Packers average 26 more rushing yards on the road and 4 more carries on the road vs home. I think the pressure of the Niners pass rush will force Jordan Love to get rid of the ball quick and into the hands of his RB1.

This builds off something our Mike McClure tipped on our Tuesday NFL preview show, where he said he'd prefer to attack Kittle props by playing his longest reception Over rather than total yards or receptions. Kittle has had a reception of at least 24 yards in eight of his last 10 games, so his role in the offense is secure, and even though the Packers allowed the fifth fewest receptions to TEs in the NFL in the regular season, they gave up the 15th-most yards. With Kittle recording a career-best 15.9 yards per reception, I love his chances of topping this longest reception number.

I really liked him when this market opened and now I am getting a better return for a lower total .. So yeah I am on it again. He's another week removed from IR, he is brimming with confidence after scoring three times at Dallas and I see no reason why he wouldn't get ample opportunity to go well over this total. Sign me up. Twice

Aaron Jones is healthy and he's received at least 21 touches in four straight games, racking up 135, 130, 141 and 131 combined rushing and receiving yards. He's averaged at least 5 yards per carry every week. This is a tougher matchup but his role is secure. Even if the 49ers limit Jones on the ground and build a big lead, Jones could clear this prop total with heavy receiving usage.

Jordan Love had an excellent season and capped it off going into Dallas and shredding a pretty good defense on the road. I say pretty good because I had long made the case the Cowboys defense was fraudulent. Love and company will have a significantly stiffer test against a 49ers pass defense that is underrated. SF ranks in the top 5 in nearly every defensive passing metric and combine that with an elite pass rush. If there is an area that the 49ers defense are vulnerable it is their run defense. I believe the 49ers will be ready to slow down arguably the hottest QB in the NFL.

The Packers offense has settled into some defined roles, and one is Aaron Jones as lead back. He has at least 20 carries and 110 rushing yards in four straight games, all dominant Green Bay wins, after hitting 20 carries just once previously. If the Packers fall behind, Jones could still hit his rushing prop but would likely be featured as a receiver (which didn't happen much in the dominant wins) and hit his combined yardage prop. Jordan Love is playing too well for the 49ers defense to load up to stop Jones, and I expect another big game here.

Eleven of the 49ers' 12 wins have been by double digits, and they should put up a bunch of points against this suspect Packers defense that has played better down the stretch. But Jordan Love is doing his best Aaron Rodgers impression right now, and with a healthy offense around him, I struggle to see this Packers team getting blown out, even on the road against the clear NFC favorite. The Packers have over 400 yards of offense in three straight games despite facing quality defenses in that stretch (Minnesota, Chicago, Dallas). They can go blow for blow with this excellent San Francisco offense or get through the back door if needed, with the 49ers' schedule looking less impressive in retrospect.

Jones is seeing 20 carries a game regularly now since early December and I see plenty of volume against this D. He is pounding the ball inside and from under center and SF stinks defending those runs (Arik Armstead will help some, but still). 49ers are 27th in rush D EPA on middle runs and Packers getting over 5/carry there since Week 15. With AJ Dillon beat up, Jones should remain the bellcow and he will break off some explosive runs. Packers OL is road-grading people behind the RT, and 49ers have been horrible defending there, too, since Week 15 (5.09/carry). Heavy workload in run game and huge shots off play action. Matt LaFleur will be stealing pages from his mentor, Kyle Shanahan, here.

Brock Purdy always has plenty of ways to go with the football and no shortage of options, but this should be a big day for Kittle. Packers just allowed 3 TD passes to a TE last week and Kittle catches a sparkling 79% of his targets at home and has 5 TDs in 7 home games, Packers were 25th in the regular season in TDs allowed to TEs.

We were all over Jake Ferguson props last week for Dallas against this GB secondary (10/12 for 93 yards and 3 TDs), and we love it for a rested and healthy Kittle here. He averages 5 catches for 87 yards at home, and this D is tailer made for his 16 yards/catch average. Has at least 67 yards receiving in every home game save for one. GB was 30th in yard/att to TEs and 23rd in QB rating allowed on passes to them. Hard to know which weapons will have the biggest games week to week with SF, but this makes too much sense for Kyle Shanahan not to embrace

Purdy averages well over 300/G at home and the Packers have had problems defending the middle of the field all season, and I don't think they're going to get two pick sixes this week. Explosive pass plays are built into this offense and the Packers D still has plenty of warts. He's thrown for at least 252 in every home game and, with another gunslinger on the opposite sideline, this feels a lot like the GB/DAL game last week where both QBs easily go over their opening yards prop. Interested to see where this closes.

Green Bay's play action game under center is humming right now, and even though they will run the ball plenty, too, this number is still too low for me. He's thrown for 267+ in 7 of the last 10 and, unlike last week where they built up a huge lead on Dallas, will have to keep pushing the ball here to keep pace with SF. Packers are 2nd in plays 25+ this season, and even against this defense they will find holes. He's been one of NFL's best road QBs and he's spreading it around to everyone.

The 49ers average 27/G on the road and I don't expect anything less from there here. I also don't think GB backs down, and they have scored 29+ in 4 of their last 5 on the road. Sis straight Packers road games have gone over. 49ers are 5-2-1 over at home. 49ers shaky 3rd down D will be a problem here. Pack and 49ers can score quickly (top 2 in NFL in 25+ yard plays) and I expect both QBs to put on a show. This opened initially at 49.5 and I suspect goes higher through the week. Both teams healthy.

The 49ers have enjoyed almost all blowout wins, but the Packers are balanced enough to keep this close. They average over 25 PPG on the road and just dropped a damn-near 50-burger at Dallas. SF pass rush isn't what I thought it would be and they are vulnerable vs the run. I also don't love their nickel personnel vs this offense and QB. 49ers special teams also suspect. GB averaging 6/carry up the middle since Week 16. SF allowing 5/carry up gut since Week 16. Packers OL will make this a game and right side of SF OL could be a problem.