When the playoffs were set, the Rams were one of two wild card teams I thought could go to the conference title game, so it was disheartening to see so many agree with this one of the most consistent picks of the weekend. That does not dissuade me as everything seems to be coming together at the right time for Los Angeles. Yes, the defense could use some work, but the offense is full strength, healthy and humming with Matthew Stafford having a plethora of weapons at his disposal. There is going to be a ton of pressure on the Lions at home. Against Detroit’s weak secondary and young roster, experience should win out. Wait until the minute before kickoff to try and get +3.5.

Although a shootout is anticipated between these two potent offensive units, both clubs have top10 rushing offenses and would prefer to establish a run-first attack. There should still be some fireworks, but enough defensive stops to send this Under the total.

Much has been made about the Rams' 7-1 late-season surge. But the only winning team they beat in that span (aside from the meaningless Week 18 game against the 49ers) came against the Browns in Joe Flacco's first start. This is a huge game for the Lions franchise and QB Jared Goff against his former team. The Lions also get a boost from the presence of TE Sam LaPorta, who had been a longshot to play because of a knee injury.

When you crunch the numbers Williams goes over this Magic 20 carry mark in blowouts or if the Rams run 70 plays. I don’t project either. I project 15.5 carries giving us a solid cushion

Before backups populated both lineups in last week's game against the 49ers, the Rams had developed an unmistakable "over" look, landing that way in each of their preceding six games. Which roughly coincided with Matthew Stafford returning to active duty after missing a bit of action at midseason. meanwhile the Lions' trendlines all season have been "over" reflected in their 10-4 mark that way across the last 14 games of the season. Expect Stafford and big-play wideouts Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua to keep the Rams within earshot in a potential back-and-forth barnburner. Play Rams-Lions "Over"

When did we start noticing the Rams? Not as much any of the seven wins in their last eight games but rather the game they lost in that stretch at Baltimore on Dec. 10, playing the Ravens on even terms at Baltimore, no less, losing only in OT on a long punt return by Tylan Wallace. To that point, Matthew Stafford had been trading points with the NFL's hottest team which had dismantled most foes in preceding weeks...including the Lions. We know the background specifics here with Matthew Stafford and Jerod Goff facing off after being involved in the big Lions-Rams trade three years ago. But Detroit could have picked a better foe in its first home playoff game since 1993. Play Rams

I missed the +3.5 number, but I still like the +3 as I believe the Rams are live for an outright win. It's not that I don't respect the Detroit Lions, I just think they are running into a very hot Rams team at the wrong time. The Lions should be able to move the ball through the ground and air, but I think the LaPorta injury (yes, he'll likely play but i believe he'll be very limited) is a big deal as he's a key option for Goff in critical moments. I think the Rams have the better coach and the better team and I specifically think the Rams air-attack will be too much for the Lions.

After sitting out Week 18, electric second-year wideout Jameson Williams (ankle) practiced fully every day this week and does not have a game designation. Sam LaPorta (knee) is questionable and expected to play, but if the breakout tight end is limited in any way that could mean an extra target or two for Williams. The Rams have given up an NFL-high 1,069 receiving yards to boundary wideouts since Week 12. Williams also has been used in the run game, scoring on a 19-yard reverse in Week 13. Khalif Raymond is out, so Donovan Peeples-Jones is expected to return punts. That's another factor that could boost Williams' usage.

Matthew Stafford has had a completion of 41 or more yards in five of his last six games. Now, in indoor conditions, he's facing a Lions defense that's given up the most explosive pass plays in the NFL. The Rams have not faced a defense in the bottom 5 of explosive pass plays allowed.

The Lions won't have the time to attend to Demarcus Robinson. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nakua will be getting all the attention, and Robinson will have the third corner on him lined up in the slot. Before last week, he's hit this over in the previous five games. Our model has him projected for 55 yards.

Chuckle at people taking Rams ML. Is being "smarter" worth giving up a free 3 points to save a few bucks? Not that type of bettor and does not make mathematical sense. I just want to win, not be Stephen Hawking. Will admit this may be bit of a heart over brain play. While definitely not a Lions fan, am from Michigan and this might be the best home-field advantage (in a dome) in years. And really who have the Rams beaten in this run? Cleveland? Joe Flacco's first start after working at Old Navy. Yes, the Rams played very well in Baltimore but otherwise in this hot run? Too much recency bias. Sam LaPorta seems likely to play. SL Model agrees with me.

Williams has 20-plus rushes in seven games this season. Of those seven, six were Rams wins, and of those six Rams wins, four were by eight or more points. I don't see a blowout coming, maybe a close win and that's it, but the Lions have been dominant against the run to the point that opposing offenses have given up rushing on them. Detroit has seen 17.4 RB rush attempts per game this season, the second-lowest mark in the league, and only have had running backs -- plural -- total 20 or more carries four times. There has not been a single running back with 20-plus carries against the Lions this season.

Goff has gone over this in 4 of his past 5 games and was two shy of hitting the over last week in their dominant win over Minnesota. That's good, but the matchup is what counts. The Rams defense has been thrown on 40.8 times per game between Weeks 13 through 17 (games that mattered), the third-most in that span. This Rams pass defense has been bad, but their run defense has been really good. Both teams' run defenses have, actually, setting up a showdown where passing dominates. And Goff might have his full arsenal with Sam LaPorta practicing on Friday. There's room to take this one up to around 35.5.

My colleague RJ brought this play to my attention and I really like it. David Montgomery has been a model of consistency and has eclipsed this line in 12 of his 14 appearances this season, while averaging 72.5 rushing yards per game and 15.6 totes. The Lions rushing offense has been excellent all season long ranking 4th in EPA per rush and 2nd in Run Block Win Rate. I have Monty projected for 67 rushing yards and the market continues to overlook the 5th year RB.

The Rams have won 7 of their last 8 games, and the lone loss occurred on the road in Baltimore, where they managed to score 31 points and cover the spread. Detroit ranks 24th in total defensive EPA, while the Rams are a legitimate top-five offense in the league. LA will be able to generate multiple explosive plays in the passing game with a healthy Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. I have the Rams winning 51 percent of simulations, making them a great value at +140 or greater.

St. Brown is an absolute machine and it's a rarity that teams have been able to slow him down throughout his three years in the NFL. In 2023-24, Detroit's top pass catcher had 11 games of 90+ receiving yards and 9 over 100+. LA's secondary allowed six WRs to catch at least 88 yards worth of passes between Weeks 11 and 17. It would be a surprise if Amon-Ra didn't top this projected total in his fifth straight contest, especially with Detroit's season on the line.

This game is expected to be a shootout with two quality passing offenses squaring off indoors. But I expect the Lions will want to lean on the run game here and protect Jared Goff a bit from a team that should be well-suited to slow him down. Montgomery reached 55 rushing yards in eight straight games prior to going 10 for 40 last week, and he's had that success while seeing more than 50% of the offensive snaps in just two of those games. The Rams have allowed at least 125 rush yards seven times, and I'd be surprised if the Lions as a whole don't get there this week, with Montgomery leading the charge.

This pass game has two vital cogs and one of them, rookie TE Sam Laporta, I don't believe, will be a factor. Sure it will mean some targets being spread, but I think Jared Goff leans even more into his top target. St. Brown averages 7.4 rec/G at home on 10 targets. He had 14 targets a few weeks back. Could do so again here. Ben Johnson will put him in motion and move him around and work for matchups and try to scheme him open. Catches 75% of his targets at home. Goff will go down trying to find him if need be, I figure.

This Lions offense had major RZ issues while Montgomery was out, but finished strong because of him. Scored 13 TDs in 14 games. Has done it in 7 of the last 9. Jared Goff has turned it over more in the second half of the season. Likely no Sam Laporta in the RZ. I suspect they lean into putting it in their finisher's hands here.

The Lions will have their hands full defending everyone else in this prolific passing game, but this journeyman has found a real home and Stafford loves throwing to him. He's had 44+ receiving yards in five straight games and 80+ in each of his last two games with Stafford. His role ticked up considerably in the second half of the season as this offense came together and became more of a big-play threat, with a reception of 22+ in 5 straight and 6 of 7 with Stafford. Also has a TD in 4 of 5

This rookie is a problem as a joker TE/slot WR. He can run any route and is so difficult to defend. Lions really struggle in those match-ups and he should see plenty of a targets as a hot option with the Lions likely blitzing a ton here. He has 84+ in 4 of the last 5, and from Week 11-17, with Stafford, he was 4th in the NFL with 618 receiving yards (88/G). I like him to go off with young legs against this secondary while perhaps Kupp does a little more dirty work. Love his YAC potential against this defense, too.

Stafford/Kupp has been an epic playoff combination. Kupp can play multiple positions within the Rams 11 Personnel groupings and got nearly 20 more targets in the slot than any Ram. Lions gave up the most 3rd most passing TDs in 11 Personnel (Rams in it 97%!! since Week 11). Lions allowed 11 TDs from the slot (31st). Kupp first look in slot in RZ from Stafford. Kupp had a TD in all 4 games en route to the Lombardi, and 6 TDs total in that playoff run. Perfect conditions in the dome. They'll score plenty of points despite the crowd.

Stafford averaged 271/G since getting healthy at the bye, and he's facing maybe the second-worst secondary in the playoff field. Lions are 30th in yards/attempt allowed, they stink against the slot, where Stafford has no shortage of options. His attempts total is set at 35.5; when he throws 34 times or more, Stafford threw for 279+ in 7 of 8 games. And 294+ in 6 of 8. Lions were 28th in plays allowed 25+ and they gave up 272/G vs playoff teams. I think he goes for 300+ in a revenge game in which Stafford will be unphased. His OL is legit. Will have time to throw.

The Rams come into this game rested, while the Lions suffered a big loss last week. That has made the market put these teams about even in ratings, but I think that's misguided. The Lions are weak defending the pass, which is definitely an issue in this matchup, but they got a big boost last week activating C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Alim McNeill. The Rams defense has been pretty average much of the year, and I think even without Sam LaPorta the Lions will be able to score a bunch of points here. I wouldn't play this at 3.5, but willing to back Detroit and the raucous crowd in this spot.

The Lions defense against a true, dynamic offense that can run or throw on any down is a problem for them. They haven't faced much elite competition since their bye and their relative inexperience could show here. Sean McVay and Raheem Morris will get to Jared Goff, I suspect, and Lions injuries to pass catchers will loom large. I think Rams could win a lower scoring game, or a shootout. I like their moxie on the road since their bye.

The Rams are the healthier team, they are the more balanced team, they have the better QB and they have a Super Bowl winning coach. And they are coming off essentially a bye while the Lions lost key players in a game that didn't matter. Lions have allowed 43 offensive TDs, which gives me pause, and can't defend the slot; Rams system with joker TEs in the slot is a big problem. Rams are hot, the dome will suit them just fine. Lions lost their last 3 games to playoff teams, scoring 47 total points. Bad match-up for their defense, even at home.

While the Lions were (questionably) playing their starters and losing sensational rookie tight end Sam LaPorta (knee), the Rams were resting their starters. Sean McVay is extremely familiar with Jared Goff and knows how to expose his weaknesses. Detroit will try to establish the ground game behind Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, but this underrated Rams defense led by Aaron Donald has allowed 4.1 yards per carry over its last three games. This is a balanced Rams attack that has scored 26-plus in seven straight games, not counting the meaningless season finale. Even if the Lions go up 10 in what is sure to be an electric Ford Field atmosphere, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Puca Nacua can get us through the back door.

As far as I am concerned this is the most intriguing matchup from wildcard weekend. We have the Rams who have won 7 of their last 8 games since their BYE week heading to Detroit where Matthew Stafford will be returning to face his former team. Jared Goff will be taking on his former team as well in a game with a projected total over 50 points inside a dome without the threat of weather. Sign me up. I have very little confidence in the Lions defense and the Lions could be without TE Sam Laporta and Khalif Raymond. I think that is a tall order for Detroit and will take the Rams getting 3.5.