This is almost purely a home-field/more desperate team wager as the Bills need it much, much more than the Cowboys do. The Bills are 15-0 when Josh Allen does not have a giveaway since 2020 and 15-2 (8-1 at home) in December/January regular season games since 2020 -- the best record in the NFL. It's the first outdoor weather game of the year for the Boys. Of course, all three Dallas losses this season are on the road. Might be a minor letdown game off the Eagles beatdown.

It’s true the Bills are better at home, but if you dig into those split, the only quality opponent they’ve defeated in Buffalo is the Dolphins; that was back in Week 3 in primetime. It’s also true the Cowboys are less dominant on the road, but two of their three such losses were to the Eagles and 49ers, and they should have beaten Philadelphia. I’m not fully there with the Bills just because they nearly beat the Eagles and lucked out against the Chiefs. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are healthy defensively and just contained a similar QB last week. I am concerned about the stomach bug some on Dallas are fighting, but give me the points with one of the NFL’s top four teams this season.

Ssshhhhh don’t tell anyone, but the Bills D is banged up. It’s also wet but definitely not cold. And I think people are looking for ways to downgrade what the Cowboys have done on offense. Go over.

Unders are 5-1 in the Bills' six most recent half-dozen home games. When a total flirts with 50 and rain is in the forecast, Under is the obvious lean. As potent as both offenses are, keep in mind that these teams are ranked fourth (Dallas) and sixth (Buffalo) for fewest points allowed per game. The forecast has pushed down the total by a point or so, not enough to act as a deterrence on the Under.

With weather conditions less than ideal, have a hard time envisioning Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense functioning as they do in Arlington. Worth noting, too, that the Bills have been a decidedly "under" team in Orchard Park this season, recording five straight "under" at home into Sunday. Buffalo has faced a variety of high-powered attacks lately, including the Chiefs last week, and the road version of the Cowboys have been quelled on a few occasions this season. Play Cowboys-Bills "Under"

Davis took his third box-score goose egg of the season last week, frustrating fantasy football managers who are wondering where the nickname "Big Game Gabe" originated. Even so, this matchup should favor a strong Davis performance. He tends to see more targets in an up-tempo game script, and the Bills coaching staff has talked openly this week about the need for Davis to win on the outside and make plays against a dangerous Dallas secondary.

Ceedee Lamb is having a truly elite season and possesses an target profile reserved for only the best of the best. I like this matchup for him as the Bills pass defense is 23rd in dropback success rate and are allowing explosive plays at the seventh highest rate. Ceedee is the engine of the Cowboys passing attack and Buffalo is certainly capable of pushing Dallas into a pass heavy approach. Even if Dallas is balanced offensively, Ceedee is capable of clearing this number.

The Bills finally came through in a close game last week against the Chiefs but are still in must-win mode to keep pace with the Colts and Bengals. Dallas finally proved it could beat a good team last week by toppling the Eagles at home, which makes this a natural letdown spot for a historically erratic outfit.

This line is on the move. After opening at 49, the total reached as high as 51 on some books, before returning back to 49.5. I believe that is because the weather report around game time isn't too looking too sunny in Buffalo. Chances of steady rain and wind are high, which could impact the Cowboys offense that thrives at home in their dome stadium. Exposed to the elements, I expect their offense to slow down against a Buffalo defense that has gotten healthier. Buffalo is also in a tough scheduling spot here, getting Dallas following two emotional games (37-34 loss to the Eagles, 20-17 win over the Chiefs). I'll grab the Under here above the key number of 49

I have no doubt that Josh Allen will utilize his legs in this matchup, but I also think he'll need to lean on his arm against a Cowboys secondary that we know can get beat. Allen has hit 2+ touchdowns in 2 of his last 3 games and is another game that is expected to be a shootout. I expect the Bills to get most of their points through the air.

Cook is a central cog in this offense, especially between the 20s, and Dallas's D, for all the love it gets, is a modest 13th against the run. If anything the Bills probably regret not running him more in the 2nd half last week after a dynamic first half. He's over this in all 6 games the Bills have played in Buffalo this season. Murray will get his handful of carries, but not enough to keep Cook from getting more like 15 in what should be a close game throughout. Can't let Parsons end their season.

This is a very high total for two teams coming off their biggest wins of the season. Dallas held the Eagles to just 13 points last week and Buffalo held the Chiefs to 17. The math aint mathin' here… take the under.

Stunned to see this line hasn't changed after last week. Rico Dowdle had 12 carries for 46 yards and one touchdown against the Eagles. He's averaging eight carries in his last five games and we project him to have eight again this week. I'm not saying he's Tony Pollard, but he should see enough action to cash this prop again.

The Bills made this list last week, largely for the same reasons they're on the list this week: the bye week drama galvanized Buffalo's locker room and liberated the team with its offensive gameplan. Josh Allen has a legitimate shot to go nuclear for a month and get involved in the MVP race and the Bills, despite everything going wrong this season, could actually win the division. The Dolphins are battling a huge list of injuries and have a tough schedule; if the Bills win their next three and the Dolphins lose two out of three, Week 18 would be a de facto division title game and potentially even a win-and-in playoff battle. I don't think Buffalo is looking ahead, though.

Dallas is much less dominant on the road. Now the Cowboys, who last played on the road Nov. 19 in Carolina, have to play outdoors in Buffalo against a revitalized Bills defense. Dallas likely will be missing its best run-stopper, nose tackle Johnathan Hankins. He hurt his ankle in the win over Philly as the Cowboys gave up 4.6 yards per carry. James Cook has received double-digit carries in four straight and should excel here. The Cowboys play a ton of man coverage and that sets up well for Josh Allen's passing and scrambling. Eleven of Allen's 13 interceptions have come against zone coverage. Back the Bills to continue a late-season surge.

The Dallas Cowboys will be playing their first road game since November 19th. They are coming off a colossal division revenge victory last Sunday, where they benefited from three Eagles turnovers and ten penalties for 95 yards. Speaking of those pesky yellow flags, Dallas is ranked 32nd in penalties per game (7.5). Dallas owns net yards per play of +0.22 on the road, while Buffalo has a +1.37 net yards per play at home. The Cowboys haven’t played any game this season when the kickoff temperature is below 50 degrees. We have a 7-6 team favored over a 10-3 team. The odds-makers want you to bet on Dallas. Not so fast. Buffalo is the more desperate team and can win in this spot.

Cooks has become the fulcrum of this offense and that isn't going to change. He is a scrimmage monster going over 100 in four straight games and seeing a ton of the football. He is averaging 5.9 yards/touch, the most of any player in the NFL with at least 175 touches. He had this at the half last week. He's caught 11 of 12 passes for 140 yards the past two weeks alone. I wouldn't be shocked if he bumped up against this number in rushing alone.

Allen remains their biggest RZ run threat, which won't change in must-win games. He's cashed this in 7 of the last 8 games (8 TDs in that span) and has 10 on the season, already setting a career high. Cowboys have only the NFL's 22nd RZ defense and Allen is a handful to bring down. I see him taking this game over with his legs and arm.