Picking against the Eagles has not been an overly successful move this season, and it’s tough to do so here given we have seen the 49ers go on a significant slide already in 2023. However, it’s tough to argue the rest differential between the teams with Philadelphia playing its third game in 13 days and San Francisco getting 10 days off before this showdown. The Niners have bounced back from their midseason lull, and all of their wins this season have been by margin. Their defense is also better overall, and I don’t see the Eagles getting enough stops to prevail.

I was waiting to see if this line was going to dip down to 2.5, but it's holding steady for good reason. The 49ers are the better football team especially when healthy. Meanwhile, the Eagles have played 3 games in a 13 day span and I think we're catching them at a point where they may be momentarily out of gas.

The Eagles are on the final leg of a brutal schedule stretch that included dates with Dolphins, Cowboys and Chiefs. Of course, they are coming off a taxing OT effort last week to get past the Bills. Although the 49ers appear to have the better profile for a victory Sunday, we have still yet to see QB Brock Purdy thrive against a quality opponent on the road. What's more, there's very little doubt that the Eagles will use being an underdog for motivation. There's value in the points because it wouldn't be a surprise if they come intoi play for this game.

Philadelphia has heard the noise coming from San Francisco since the NFC Championship Game ended. Well, both teams get to run it back this season. Now, this game will have another element thrown in to the mix, a chance for the Eagles to extend their distance for home field advantage. I expect that to happen.

We didn't get to see the real Niners the last time they played at Philly in the NFC title game because Brock Purdy was injured early before backup Josh Johnson was KO'd, and Purdy forced to return to the game when he couldn't throw. The game thus landed on only 38 points (31-7), but Purdy and the rest are relatively healthy this time. Don't be surprised if the scoreline looks more like Philly's OT shootout last week vs. the Bills than the previous Monday at KC, as Jalen Hurts is just the sort of mobile QB who has given the SF defense fits thru the years, and the Niners have lots of a big-play offense. Play Niners-Eagles "Over"

The Eagles were involved in a 37-34 shootout last week and D'Andre Swift finished with one catch for 4 yards. I see another rough game for Swift's receiving production. The 49ers, with their elite linebackers, allow the sixth-fewest yards per reception to opposing RBs. Swift has exceeded this prop total on his longest catch four of 11 times this season, but two of those Overs were by the thinnest of margins (11-yard grabs).

DeVonta Smith has hit this yardage total in 2 games in a row and 3 of his last 4, all of which has coincided with Dallas Goedert being out. I don't expect Goedert back in this game which means another high concentration of targets to DeVonta and AJ Brown. The 49ers have a great defense but can certainly be beat by boundary receivers. This game has a high point total and I expect much of the production on the Eagles side to come from the receivers.

Why are the Eagles at home getting points to a visitor? They were getting +2.5 at Kansas City a few weeks ago and came away with the 21-17 Eagles win after a halftime deficit. The Eagles won 31-7 in the playoffs to knock the 49ers out (with QB Brock Purdy injured early after starting 4-for-4). The Eagles are 10-1 and win second-half games with ease. Jalen Hurts has been an amazing QB. So why do I side with the 49ers here? This 2023 SF offensive crew is special when healthy is the reason. They’re healthy right now. 49ers to cover.

The Eagles are 32nd in DVOA defending Tight Ends this season, giving up about 6 catches per game for 48 yards this season to the position. Against Philly, top TE's like TJ Hockenson, Jake Ferguson and Travis Kelce all caught 7 receptions in their respective games. George Kittle enters Week 13 as the most efficient receiving tight end in the NFL, averaging more yards per route run than any other TE. You can take the over on this line of 3.5 but it's juicy, I prefer the alt line of 5+ for a nice payout of (+122).

I don't like that this number has jumped up to 25.5 from 23.5, but the Niners have hit over their team total in all but 3 games this season. Those came during their losing streak when the team was missing key pieces of their offense like Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams. The Niners average 28.2 ppg this season, that number jumps to 30.7 over their current 3 game winning streak.

In games when their offense is completely healthy, the Niners are 8-0 with an average margin of victory of more than 20 points. The Eagles are 19th against the pass and trending downward, whereas Brock Purdy and the Niners offense are No. 1 in DVOA and No. 1 in the passing game. Eagles are also banged up, Niners win handedly in Philly.

The Eagles hemorrhage passing TDs. Only Washington has allowed more than Philly's 23. They've allowed at least 2 in four straight games, giving up 11 total in the span. Yikes. Brock Purdy is not nearly as spectacular on the road as he is at home, but he has so many weapons available and since LT Trent Williams has returned Purdy has 7 TDs in three games. Kittle and Deebo will be problems for this struggling pass defense, and CMC is an issue for everyone. Eagles issues with YAC will hurt them here where it matters most

If you haven't cashed in from the tush push/brotherly shove this season, well, what the heck have you been waiting for? This return will be much lower by the weekend, trust me. We know who is getting the ball in short-yardage situations and he's scored two TDs the last two games and has scored at least once in six of the last seven weeks. Eagles had three rushing TDs in their playoff whipping of the 49ers (albeit not Hurts). Converting third-and-goal seems to be a mandate for this grop.

The Niners have been extremely dominant in every single game where Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel were available and not so much when they didn't have them on the field. I do NOT like laying -2.5 on the road against the team with the best record in football, but the Niners are coming off a mini-bye courtesy of playing on Thanksgiving night, the Eagles defense was on the field for 92 plays against the Bills last week in an emotionally taxing win and Philly's dealing with several key injuries, Lane Johnson and Fletcher Cox most notably. Missing your right tackle when Nick Bosa and Chase Young are involved isn't good news.

The top two teams in the NFC, and perhaps the league, meet here, and I expect a lot of offense on both sides. Purdy had at least 270 passing yards in four straight games prior to the Seahawks win, and he'll be up against a defense that has allowed well over 300 passing yards in three of its last four games, with the only exception being the Kansas City game where Patrick Mahomes was let down by his receivers. Even though Purdy is typically more bankable at home when it comes to passing yards, this should be a matchup that lets him shine.

I'm not sure we get +3 back -- only FanDuel has it -- so I have to play it now. Yeah, the Eagles are dealing with some injuries, although Dallas Goedert might be back, and the Niners have looked fantastic since their bye week and with the Chase Young addition. Just can't not take Philly getting a field goal at home. If it wins this game, the top seed in the NFC is almost a given again (the Niners will not be getting it with a loss) even with one more game left vs. Dallas. Philly still two games against the (Little) Giants and one against the (flightless) Cardinals.

Vegas is begging you to take the 10-1 Eagles at home. The 49ers have been waiting since January 29th for this game. They are also coming off a mini bye after playing on Thanksgiving. I like the 49ers to take care of business and secure the win despite playing in Philadelphia.

The Eagles went all-out to beat the Bills on Sunday, with their defense on the field for 95 snaps. That same defense lost Fletcher Cox and Zach Cunningham to injuries. Being thin at linebacker is not ideal as Philly preps for a 49ers team that's averaged 143 rushing yards in its three games since the bye. San Francisco had extra rest after demolishing Seattle on Thanksgiving, and this NFC Championship Game rematch is one the 49ers have had circled for months.

The Eagles are off a masterful comeback win, but the defense was on the field for 92 plays in that game and now faces a 49ers offense that's back in Super Bowl form. While the 49ers defense has been excellent since the bye, they did get to face Baker Mayfield at home and a banged-up Geno Smith in their last two games. The Eagles offense is top five in third-down and red-zone rates, which is how they're third in points per game and just 10th in yards per play. The Eagles showed they can score points in bad weather without Lane Johnson, and they have 28+ points in every home game this year. Take this before it hits 47.

The Philadelphia Eagles defense had a tough game on Sunday as they were on the field for 92 plays in their overtime victory. Facing a physical group like San Francisco, seeking revenge after losing to Philly in the NFC Championship, will be challenging. The 49ers have ten days of rest and preparation after playing on Thanksgiving, which gives them an advantage. They have better net yards per play, third-down defense, red-zone defense, opponent passer rating, and offensive and defensive DVOA. Meanwhile, the Eagles are scheduled to play the Dallas Cowboys next week, and this game might prove to be a classic schedule loss for them. This spot screams San Francisco!