This is likely going to be a terrible game between two terrible teams, but the Bears and Panthers do not enter as equals. Carolina is 0-4 ATS on the road losing by an average of 15.8 points with opponents covering by an average of 8 points. Chicago is 3-2 ATS in its last five, and Tyson Bagent has at least found comfort in the starting role. He should have plenty of time to operate as the Panthers struggle to sack the QB and are without star pass rusher Brian Burns. This is also a revenge game (whatever that's worth) for DJ Moore and D'Onta Foreman. I'm willing to pay to avoid the hook in what should be a low-scoring contest.

The high-priced free agent has been mostly a bust this season for the Panthers due to both inefficiency and injuries. But now that he's healthy, the club appears determined to get both he and Chuba Hubbard involved in the offense. The backfield tandem combined for 7 receptions on 11 targets against the Colts, with Sanders getting 3 catches for 22 yards. QB Bryce Young's three INT disaster will likely influence him to be more of a check-down merchant Thursday, and all Sanders will need is a couple grabs to clip this number.

Hubbard has found the end zone just once this season. But since he has emerged as RB1 for the Panthers, he's had a handful of goal-line opportunities the past couple of weeks but just hasn't managed to find the paint. Considering he's also a receiving threat in the red zone, Hubbard should be live to get his second TD of the season Thursday.

Miles Sanders averaged a season-high 6.5 yards per carry last week, and coaches talked him up afterward. It appears he's headed for a more even split with Chuba Hubbard. Even in a difficult matchup against Chicago's elite run defense, look for Sanders to get at least seven carries.

When Young is healthy he runs. And the Bears have not faced any mobile QBs recently. The Bears stop the run so I project a pass heavy game that will feature a few scrambles. Nice value here. Plus we always have the potential for the kneel down. We want to cash if that happens.

When Young is healthy he has eclipsed this number. And the Bears have not faced any mobile QBs recently. The Bears stop the run so I project a pass heavy game that will feature a few scrambles. Nice value here.

Carolina has covered one game this year. Bryce Young has not done well this season when getting pressured. However, the Bears do not apply a lot of pressure to the quarterback and are last in EPA. Both teams have really struggled offensively but if there was ever a get right spot for Young it’s against this Bears defense to at least cover.

On principle, cannot recommend laying points with the Bears, especially with rookie Tyson Bagent still in at QB while Justin Fields continues to mend his thumb. Chicago has won just twice in its last 19 games, and no matter how poorly the Panthers looked last week vs. the Colts, cannot justify a Bears recommendation. As bad as he looked vs. Indy, Bryce Young is two games removed from beating the ballyhooed CJ Stroud of the Texans, and even with just one win, getting beyond a field goal looks decent business with Frank Reich's Carolina. Play Panthers

The Panthers have won one game and it came at home against the Texans. On the road, they haven’t sniffed a win. Last week at home, Bryce Young threw three picks in a 27-13 loss to the Colts. The Panthers average only 283 ypg offensively. It’s why the Panthers are 1-6-1 ATS on the season and now they get on the road where they’re 0-4. One more week of backup QB Tyson Bagent for the Bears, I like him to fare well at home. Bears to cover

Panthers linebacker Frankie Luvu was undrafted coming out of Washington State. Now he's a defensive captain who has a chance to strike it big in 2024 free agency. With Carolina dealing with several major defensive injuries, Luvu has stepped up, making 32 tackles the past three games. The Bears are expected to go run-heavy so Luvu should stay busy.

Foreman could feast against his former team with usual No. 1 back Khalil Herbert not expected to return from IR after all in a minor surprise -- at least according to the NFL Network. Carolina is near the bottom in rush defense.

Mingo is In a great spot. You can’t run v Chicago but you certainly can throw. Plus, DJ Chark is doubtful making Mingo a great candidate to eclipse 40 yards. 32.5 is simply too low. Play the over.

Analysis to come.

Bryce Young is in the perfect situation for this prop. Nothing makes a quarterback scramble more than when their back is up against the wall and they need to prove themselves after a tough loss. Young's two unders were his two games coming back from injury in early October. He averages over 25 rushing yards when he's "100%". Given his past two games, it seems as though Thomas Brown's new leadership is allowing Young to get comfortable using his feet.

Luvu is a middle linebacker who has topped this in three straight but likely will move to the outside plenty with pass-rushers Brian Burns and Justin Houston out. Needless to say, OLBs don't get a ton of tackles (Burns has just 25) because their main focus is pressuring the QB.

I’m a bit perplexed why this number is so low. The only game Bagent was under 200 yards was in a game where Chicago routed the Raiders and they attempted less than 30 passes. I don’t see either happening and I see this number over the 190 threshold.

The Bears stop the run. Period, stop. My projections have Hubbard at 12-13 carries and 36.5 yards. The books have him at LESS carries but even more yards. They number is inflated and should go down before kickoff.

The Bears are dreadful at covering RBs out of the backfield. Sanders is an attractive option. I project 19 -22 receiving yards, giving me a significant advantage over the posted number of 10.5.

This number is simply too high. Hurst projects at 1-1.5 catches. He needs to have an outlier productive game to beat us. The juice is fairly high but I think he has a 23% chance of attaining 3 or more catches

The Bryce Young experience hasn't gone super well so far and while Tyson Bagent isn't exactly Joe Montana, I think he'll be able to lean on the run game in a big way. The Panthers have a very porous rush defense and simply have too many defensive injuries to completely stop the Bears offense. As for Carolina, it will be relatively difficult to run against the Bears which means they'll need to lean on Bryce Young's arm to get the cover and he's just not there yet.

It's rarely a good idea to lay points with a bad team, and this matchup is no exception. The Bears have lost their last two games by 24 combined points while committing seven turnovers. The 1-7 Panthers are hardly a juggernaut but have improved since their bye week. Last week they were doomed by a pair of pick-sixes from rookie QB Bryce Young. But the backfield duo of Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders combined for 130 yards from scrimmage and the defense yielded just 13 points to the Indianapolis offense. This sets up as a favorable spot for Carolina to notch its second victory.

No better way to have a comeback game than against Chicago's defense. The Bears are allowing the 5th most passing yards this season. While Jonathan Mingo only had 5 receiving yards last week, he did receive 4 targets and I expect his target share to remain high. Aside from last week he is averaging 44 receiving yards on 5 targets in previous three games. With DJ Chark doubtful, it should only increase Mingo's share.

This is going to be Tyson Bagent vs. Bryce Young, and it speaks to how the season is going for the Panthers that the No. 1 overall pick is catching points against the undrafted free agent. The playcalling switch made over their bye hasn't borne fruit, but the defense has actually done a great job in two sloppy games since the bye. The Bears have been inconsistent offensively with Tyson Bagent at QB, with any positivity quickly erased by turnovers. Both defenses are playing better than both offenses, and 20-17 feels like the ceiling for scoring here.

You can’t run the ball on da Bears - the one thing they do really well. Panthers can’t realty run well, anyway. More volume in pass game; RBs stand to be involved. (I'll play Miles Sanders over in this as well once it populates). Hubbard’s six targets in Week 9 were a season high. Opposing RBs cruise over this number the last five games: Kamara 4/5 – 44, Ekeler 7/8 – 94 (TD), Zamir White 3/3 - 26, Alexander Mattison 4/4 - 28, and in the Commandos game Antonio Gibson (4/6 -64) and Brian Robinson (4/4 – 33). Ekeler, White and Robinson set season highs against Chicago. Bears are 32nd in y/rec to RBs (10.5) and YAC/rec to RBs (11.31 – next highest is 10.0)

Believe this is the first time I've backed the Bears on the ML this season and it probably will be the last. A loss here would doubly hurt because it would make it that much more unlikely the Panthers finish with the NFL's worst record and give Chicago the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft via the Bryce Young deal. The Cats are very banged up on defense led by Pro Bowl pass rusher Brian Burns, who is out. The Bears are in reasonably good shape whether Justin Fields returns or not -- guessing not, but it would be a nice surprise. If he does play, this would jump to an ML where I'm not comfortable playing it. Barely am this one.

): I was on the other side of this through the first six weeks of the season, but the change in play caller has the rookie QB at least pushing it downfield a little more and this has gone over 40 yards in two straight games since Frank Reich ceded control. Chicago is bottom 10 in the NFL in big plays allowed, it’s a bad secondary with some tacking issues and even getting a little healthier at safety I am rolling with it. Panthers need to show the owner something with this QB and that 5.5 yards per attempt ain’t it. I’m banking on them taking some shots against a soft defense. CJ Stroud throwing for 5 TDs and Panthers can't complete a deep ball?

Jaquan Brisker has been a full practice participant this week after missing two games with a concussion and separate illness. The dynamic second-year safety out of Penn State has cleared this prop number in five of seven games after racking up 104 tackles and a team-high four sacks last season. He plays in the box quite a bit; PFF grades him as Chicago's best tackler. Look for him to notch at least six tackles+assists Thursday night.

The Bears run defense has been excellent. Coming into Week 9 Chicago was 2nd in both EPA allowed per rush and run stop win rate. Not only did they just shut down Alvin Kamara on the ground limiting him to 9 carries for 26 yards but Chicago has not allowed a RB to eclipse 45 yards in five consecutive weeks. They face a Panther offense that is 29th in EPA per rush and 31st in PFF's run block grade. Then there is Miles Sanders who was more efficient last week and finished with 22% of the teams rushing attempt share compared to Hubbard's 57% mark. With Sanders seemingly healthy after dealing with shoulder and groin injuries, his role could grow at the expense of Hubbard.

The Panthers gained 3.9 yards per play against Indy's horrific defense Sunday, one week after mustering 3.7 yards per play versus Houston. So even if Bryce Young cuts down on his interceptions, I have no faith in Carolina's offense. The Bears are getting healthier with Jaquan Brisker and Eddie Jackson back at safety, and Justin Fields could return as well. Carolina likely won't have top pass rusher Brian Burns (concussion) or starting corner C.J. Henderson (concussion). It's hard to lay points with a Bears team that's lost 17 of 19, but look for D.J. Moore and D'Onta Foreman to excel against their former team as Chicago covers. I also like that Chicago owns Carolina's 2024 first-round pick -- a Panthers loss helps the Bears' future.