This is a low total for a Jacksonville game. The total suggests that it’ll be a more defensive game, which helps the Steelers. It’s raining it Pittsburgh making it more a running game. The Steelers offense looked better last week against the Rams but it’s their defense that keeps them in the game and ultimately wins them for them. Since Mike Tomlin took over as their head coach, Pittsburgh is 14-5 ATS as home dogs.

The Steelers have forged a 4-2 straight-up record with smoke and mirrors. They have been outgained in every game. The offense is especially shaky. The Jaguars' soft spot is pass defense, but Pittsburgh lacks the personnel to fully exploit it. Predicted rain might pose an additional challenge Jax can call on tireless RB Travis Etienne Jr. time and again in weather that could impede passing. The Jags are perfect against the spread in three roadies.

Although Pittsburgh has had a suspect run defense, Etienne is a finesse and outside runner. His style isn't conducive to success against an aggressive defense that will be keyed to stop him and responds well laterally to outside plays.

Let me start by giving big props to Kenny Pickett, he's playing much better than most (myself included) projected this season. That said, business is business and my man is entering the No Fly Zone Sunday. Jacksonville has picked off 9 passes already this season and Kenny is overdue to put one in the air. He's only thrown one INT since Week 2 and his passes are starting to get further down the field. Proud of my guy but have to take advantage when presented the opportunity.

Two teams have been out gained in yards in every game this season: the Cardinals and the Steelers. This is not a sustainable formula for success. I expect the Jaguars to bring this 4-2 Pittsburgh team down to earth a bit and cover the -2 spread.

The weather for this game doesn’t look great. The forecast is for steady rain, so the Steelers might focus even more on running the ball. Harris has already been busy, totaling at least 14 carries in each of the last four games. Even with how good Jaylen Warren has looked at times, the Steelers still want to give Harris significant work. Combine that with the weather and I think he hits the over here.

The Jaguars have won and covered four straight and this will be their toughest opponent during the stretch next to the Bills. The Steelers have fought hard to a 4-2 record but the problem I have with the Steelers is their defense. It’s ranked No. 30 in the NFL allowing 383 ypg. Their offense is even worse at No. 31 with 273 ypg and the running game only tabulates 88 ypg. One team, the Jaguars, is improving weekly while the Steelers still have much to work on. I’m on the Jaguars to cover the short price.

Last week was uncharacteristic for Jaylen Warren. The running back averaged 4 receptions for 38.5 yards in his previous 4 games (all over 19.5). Jacksonville's rush defense has been outstanding, but they let up in the passing game. When it comes to short screen passes, it should be Warren getting the targets over Najee Harris as he has proven to be the more dynamic back. Looks like over 80% chance of rain in Pittsburgh, which will result in short dump passes.

We already played Steelers plus the points as I think they win outright because that defense shuts down the Jags on a rainy day. Pittsburgh has allowed only 27 points in its two-game win streak.

Jaguars wideout Christian Kirk has exceeded this total in five of the last six games, the exception coming when he finished with 49 receiving yards in a 37-20 win over the Colts. Kirk excels against man coverage and the Steelers play more man coverage than all but five teams. Pittsburgh has been burned by slot receivers all season and Kirk should continue that trend.

The Jaguars have surrendered at least one running back to exceed this receiving total in SIX straight games! So pick your poison for Pittsburgh this week between Warren and Najee Harris. I'll ride with the second year player out of Oklahoma State as he's playing just shy of 50% of the snaps and has surpassed this number in four of six games. He's 8th in target share among all RBs (13.2%) and if I'm correct on my prediction of Jacksonville being ahead late, game flow should be in Warren's favor. I would easily play this up to 25 yards, if not higher.

Kenny Pickett finally had a go-to guy - George Pickens. He's been a force lately and will find his pockets against the Jags. Pickens has gone over 75 yards receiving in 4 of the last 5 games. He's gone over 100 yards three times since Week 2. He can turn something into nothing and has started competing more for contested catches, which is upping his target share (25 in the last 3 games) and the big-play knack pushes him well over this low total (a catch of 31 yards or more in 4 of the last 5).

Have to say I'm a little surprised at this number -- one of our books (BetMGM) just got to 3. I was totally wrong on the Jags last week in New Orleans, but a warm-weather team playing outdoors on a rather dreary, rainy day against a top-level defense? And Pittsburgh might get Pro Bowl D-lineman Cameron Heyward back from IR as he practiced today. I believe the Steelers win outright but not about to pass on 3. Really will be surprised with an ATS loss. Maybe we push. Probably will play Under the Jags' team total as well but will wait another day or two to confirm the weather/injuries.

After a hot start to Calvin Ridley's season the former Falcon has seen his production tail off culminating in a Week 7 performance where he had just one reception for 5 yards. Better days will be ahead for Ridley who gets a softer matchup against a Steelers defense allowing the second most yards to opposing WRs this season on a per game basis. I also prefer the combination line here as the Jaguars are trying to manufacture Ridley touches and hes gotten 4 carries over the last three games. I also like that Zay Jones will be back in the lineup as both of Ridleys 100+ yard games have come with Jones on the field.

Our Steelers vibes have been right since Week 2. We cashed the moneyline last week on them again, though it didn’t quite make the cut as a best bet on this site for us. Thought they could beat the Rams, and like them here against a weary Jags team with one eye on a Week 8 bye after playing four games in like 19 days before this one. Steelers are adept at winning one score games, they know how to win ugly and have won four in a row straight up as a dog. Defense will give Trevor Lawrence issues and has just five TD passes during their four game win streak. PIT isn’t great against the run but Jags are 22nd in yards/carry.