Mike's Past Picks
Nikola Vucevic averaged 10.1 rebounds per game this season. It marked his seventh straight season in which he averaged at least 10.0 rebounds. At home this season, he averaged 10.3 rebounds. The Heat have had problems controlling the glass, allowing the 12th-most rebounds per game in the league. Vucevic played in two of the three games that the Bulls faced the Heat this season and he had exactly 11 rebounds in both games. In an important game in which Vucevic should play a lot, I like him to record at least 10 rebounds.
The Bulls inserted Matas Buzelis into their starting five in the beginning of February. Over 31 games in that role, he averaged 13.0 points. He played even more as the season came to a close, averaging 29 minutes over his last 12 games. That helped him score at least 12 points in eight of those 12 games. He has faced the Heat three times this season and he scored at least 13 points in each of those games. While Buzelis only shot 43.5% from the field on the road this season, he shot 47.2% at home. Take this over.
Jimmy Butler can be passive at times during the regular season. That’s not the case when he gets to the playoffs. In three of his four playoff runs with the Heat, he averaged at least 22.2 points per game. In two of those, he averaged at least 26.9 points per game. With the Warriors playing for seeding against the Clippers on Sunday, Butler scored 30 points over 48 minutes. Another stat working in Butler’s favor is that the Grizzlies played at the fastest pace in the league this season. When he played them earlier this month, he scored 27 points. Take the over for him in this rematch.
Paolo Banchero scored at least 30 points in nine of his final 14 games during the regular season. Last season, he scored at least 30 points in three of seven games against the Cavaliers in the first round. One of the keys was that he logged at least 38 minutes in five of those games. He also scored at least 30 points in all three games against the Hawks this season. The Hawks played a the third-fastest pace in the league this season, so Banchero should receive plenty of opportunities to score against them again.
This is an important game for both teams as they try to avoid the Play-In Tournament. In the Nuggets first game without Michael Malone, Nikola Jokic recorded 20 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists against the Kings. Jokic is averaging 10.2 assists per game this season and this is a great matchup for him to rack up dimes again with both the Nuggets and the Grizzlies ranked inside the top-seven in the league in pace of play.
The Nets continue to play out the season with many of their top players sidelined. Even their starters who are healthy have been logging limited minutes. That has resulted in Maxwell Lewis playing at least 27 minutes and scoring at least 10 points in each of the last three games. The last time he played the Hawks, he scored 10 points despite playing just 22 minutes. The Hawks have played at the third-fastest pace in the league, so Lewis could receive ample opportunities to hit this over.
Since returning from injury, Domantas Sabonis has averaged 14.2 rebounds over his last nine games. He finished with at least 13 rebounds in six of those nine games. For the season, he is averaging 13.9 rebounds per game. While the Nuggets have Nikola Jokic manning the middle, Sabonis has grabbed at least 14 rebounds in both of his previous games versus the Nuggets this season. Dating back to last season, Sabonis has recorded at least 13 rebounds in five of his last six games against the Nuggets. I like his chances to hit this over.
This line has been set surprisingly low when you consider that Reaves has averaged 26.0 points over his last 15 games. In those 15 games, he scored at least 20 points 13 times. This is the second game of a back-to-back set for the Lakers and Reaves has thrived in such situations this season. Excluding one game in which he left early because of injury, Reaves has scored at least 30 points in the second game of each of the Lakers’ last five back-to-back sets. I’ll take this over.
The Pelicans continue to close out the season without most of their key veterans. Rookie Yves Missi has remained in their starting lineup, averaging 26 minutes over his last nine games. Over those nine games, he grabbed at least 10 rebounds seven times. In one of the games that he didn’t reach double-digits, he just missed with nine rebounds. When he faced the Nets earlier this season, Missi posted 11 rebounds. The Nets have the second-worst shooting percentage in the league, which should afford Missi with ample rebounding opportunities.
This is an important game with the Magic and Hawks battling for the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference. Paolo Banchero has been locked in down the stretch, shooting 48.1% from the field and averaging 22.3 shot attempts over his last 12 games. During that 12-game span, he scored at least 30 points eight times. In two previous meetings with the Hawks, Banchero scored 31 and 36 points. The Hawks have played at the third-fastest pace in the league, so look for Banchero to stay hot.
Kel’el Ware has grabbed at least 10 rebounds in eight of his last 12 games. That included a game against the 76ers in which he had 14 rebounds. In another game that he started against the 76ers this season, he had 13 rebounds. The 76ers have allowed seventh-most rebounds per game in the league and are down to Adem Bona and Colin Castleton at center. Ware has the potential to dominate the boards again.
Karl-Anthony Towns has recorded at least 34 combined points and rebounds in nine of his last 13 games. It’s not a concern that Jalen Brunson (ankle) is expected to play Sunday because Towns is averaging 24.4 points and 12.8 rebounds per game for the season. This is a stellar matchup against the Suns, who struggle to slow down centers. When these two teams met in November, Towns posted 34 points and 10 rebounds. This is the second game of a back-to-back set for the Knicks, but that’s also not a concern for Towns because he has recorded at least 34 combined points and rebounds in eight of 10 such situations this season.
Nikola Vucevic is averaging 10.0 rebounds per game, putting him on pace to average double-digit rebounds for the seventh straight season. The Hornets struggle to control the glass, allowing the eighth-most rebounds per game in the league. Starting centers have hauled in at least 10 rebounds against them in eight of their last 10 games. In both previous meetings with the Hornets this season, Vucevic recorded 13 rebounds each. The over is the way to go here.
Josh Hart has combined for at least 19 points and assists in 10 of his last 15 games. This is a great matchup for him to reach that threshold again with the Hawks playing at the second-fastest pace in the league. Hart has faced the Hawks four times already this season and he finished with at least 19 combined points and assists in each of those games. Jalen Brunson (ankle) played in all four of those games, so him potentially returning Saturday shouldn’t be a detriment to Hart.
Deni Avdija has started 12 straight games for the Trail Blazers, averaging 37 minutes during that span. He parlayed that into averages of 11.2 rebounds and 5.6 assists. With regards to this prop, he combined for at least 15 rebounds and assists in eight of the 12 games. This is a great spot for him to be productive in both departments again with the Bulls playing at the third-fastest pace in the league. That has contributed to them allowing the second-most rebounds and the second-most assists per game. The last time he faced the Bulls, Avdija posted 12 rebounds and three assists.