Extremely tough call here as backing the Lions has been a money making proposition for us this season. While Detroit and Baltimore are a combined 9-3, each team’s best win came early over a banged-up opponent (Chiefs and Bengals, respectively). Jared Goff has won every which way, but the Lions’ four-game winning streak is over non-playoff teams. Beyond that, Detroit’s offense is predicated on a strong running game, and with David Montgomery out, establishing that against a tough Baltimore defense is going to be a struggle. That means Goff may not be able to get whatever he wants like usual. Would not be surprised with either result Sunday, but I like Lamar Jackson & Co. to pull this out late.

A Baltimore pass rush that netted 6 sacks last week against the Titans should make Lions QB Jared Goff uncomfortable and perhaps force a key turnover. The Lions are thin in their backfield because of injuries and also have some injury concerns along the offensive line. This is a favorable spot for the Ravens to win their second straight.

Detroit's offense has lived up to my ratings as one of the best in the game. Their offensive line is outstanding, Jared Goff has been solid with plenty of playmakers. The Lions are averaging 28 points per game. I continue to upgrade their defense but still only have them ranked 14th. The Ravens might find it hard to run the football meaning Lamar Jackson will throw the ball more than their normal. My model has 52 points being scored.

The Lions are 5-1 ATS and Jared Goff, normally a QB to back indoors and fade outside, already has three outdoor wins under his belt this season. However, after perfect weather in those games, here we've got expected strong winds and even a chance (25%) of rain. No David Montgomery means Detroit must lean on a not-100% Jahmyr Gibbs. Lay the points.

UNDER 43.5 Baltimore kicks FGS, but it’s windy. Detroit is not a great road offense. Plus they don’t really have a bruiser RB to control the clock. Finally, Detroit has a better defense than is being factored into the line. Under.

The Ravens short yardage and redzone issues have become acute and the heat has mounted on John Harbaugh for giving away 3 points multiple times in tough losses recently ... Again. Cost them dearly in both losses and Justin Tucker is the GOAT. Even with some wind I see him attempting 3-4 FGs. Harbaugh playing to his defense and field position. Tucker attempted 6 last week. Lack of Ravens playmakers on offense and stout defense will lead to more FG attempts for Tucker

I'm looking forward to this matchup featuring Jared Goff (who is playing great football) against an elite Ravens defense. I believe we're going to see Goff and Detroit lean on their short area passing game and as a result Goff will focus on high percentage throws near the LOS. We saw a glimpse of that last week vs TB after David Montgomery exited the game and Goff ultimately finished with 30 completions. The Lions will be without David Montgomery again and both Jahmyr Gibbs and Craig Reynolds are nursing hamstring injuries and could be operating at less than 100%. The Ravens also are allowing explosive plays at the league’s lowest rate. Look for Goff to focus on underneath routes.

This game is likely to be affected by the wind, which is why the total is only 43 when these teams have combined for more than 50 points per game. Long completions should be harder to come by for Lamar Jackson, who is under 11 yards per completion for the first time in his career as his completion percentage has spiked. The Lions defense doesn't give up many big plays, with only one of their six opponents posting a 35-yard catch in a game. With the elements on their side, they should be able to keep Jackson under this number.

Flowers has at least 5 receptions in three of his past four games, which is good. My theory is that when the Ravens' RBs aren't efficient, the team turns to Flowers as an extension of the run game. But that theory kind of changed because Flowers has been running routes a little further downfield rather than trying to stretch defenses horizontally on screens. That's good, it means his role is evolving, and he’s doing his most damage on hitch routes. You might like to know that the Lions are allowing an 81% catch rate on hitch routes this season, which sounds great since they’ve otherwise been rather stingy against the wideouts they’ve faced.

I took Gibbs at No. 2 overall in my rookie fantasy draft and have been irked at Dan Campbell all season for basically ignoring Gibbs and riding former Bear David Montgomery like he's freaking Walter Payton (my No. 1 idol, and I apologize Sweetness for even including you in the same sentence as these guys). Well, Monty is out this week and here's what Dan said about Gibbs in his return from injury: “I’d like to say we’ll be careful with him, but the reality of it is we need him, so we’ll go as far as he can take us.” Will be interested to see his carries/total yards props. May have to come back and play one of those.

Inside linebacker Alex Anzalone doesn't come off the field. His position switch this season, from the MIKE to the WILL linebacker, has paid off in a big way. He made 20 tackles the past two weeks. “He is an extremely smart football player, and he is playing as physical as I’ve ever seen him and he’s playing at a very high level," coach Dan Campbell told reporters. The Ravens are a good matchup because of their high run percentage (51.79, 2nd in NFL) and their tendency to target the middle of the field.

This isn't a bad line by the oddsmakers considering Edwards has gone over the number in four of six games thus far. But Detroit is extremely stingy against the run, so much so that ZERO running backs who have faced them thus far in 2023 have exceeded this total. With Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell also in the fold, I don't see Edwards topping 40 this week so I'll happily play the under.

I'm not sure why Baltimore is favored here, they won in London almost entirely on Justin Tucker field goals... That won't work against Jared Goff & a potent Lions passing attack. Since Week 10 of last season, Goff leads the NFL in EPA per dropback at 0.23 and ranks second with a 105.6 passer rating... and 40 TD passes. Ravens are a threat in the ground game, led by Lamar Jackson, of course. However, the Lions run defense is top 5 in the league in success rate, while the overall defense ranks top 10 in expected points allowed per play. Detroit is on a roll, winning 4 straight by at least 2 scores. Give me the dogs err Lions to roar.

On paper, the Ravens red zone defense is elite. Only Joe Burrow has thrown for multiple TD Passes this season. However, when you look at who they have faced... it makes more sense. A Week 1 Rookie QB in Stroud, D.T.R., Kenny Pickett & Ryan Tannehill... You get the picture. Goff ranks 5th in TD passes with 11 on the season and has hit the over on this prop in 50% of his games, including 2 of his last 3 starts.

This could be a potential Super Bowl preview between the Lions and Ravens. While both teams are evenly matched along both sides of the line of scrimmage, the Ravens possess the ultimate trump card in QB Lamar Jackson's ability to play above the Xs and Os; which he will do in this game.

Mark Andrews has quietly had a solid season but has yet to top 80 yards, a feat he accomplished 5x last season and 7x time in the 2021 season. Despite not having a signature breakout game Andrews still possesses an elite target profile comprised of elite route participation, target share, and air yard shard. Andrews also has a healthy 1.69 YPRR. This looks like a potential blowup spot against a Detroit defense that is a pass funnel and have surrendered the 4th most targets and yards to opposing TEs.

The Lions coaching staff canceled practice on Wednesday, opting for a walkthrough to rest their injured roster after six weeks of physical football. The Lions have won and covered four straight, and this is the perfect spot to sell high. Baltimore’s defense was on the field for only 46 plays in London. The Ravens are ranked third in opponent passer rating and second in red-zone defense. The Lions struggled to contain both mobile quarterbacks they faced this season: Geno Smith and Patrick Mahomes. The home team should be more accustomed to the 15-25 MPH winds in this matchup. Lastly, the Lions will host a Monday Night Football game next week for the first time since 2018.

Lived in Michigan for the first half of my life or so and I'm happy for all my friends that they will likely get to see a Lions division title for the first time since "Whoomp! There It Is" was a hit single. I said that same phrase when I pulled out the ring to propose. It was either that or "2 Legit 2 Quit." Detroit is good but who has it really beaten? KC, but the Chiefs were without their two best non-Mahomes players. The others all had meh QBs: Atlanta, Green Bay, Tampa and Carolina. Geno Smith torched this defense. No David Montgomery this week, a few O-Linemen are iffy and Jahmyr Gibbs is no sure thing. The Ravens are quite healthy.

Ravens have just 5 passing TDs and only 2 to WR. RedZone issues mounting. Lions get pressure without blitzing, and BAL OL has some cracks. Harbaugh no longer pushing limits on 4th down; settles for 3. Lions injuries to run game have slowed it down. Both top 5 defenses in yards/play. BAL allows 15/G with Roquan Smith. Lions allow 15/G on road. Could see 20-19 Lions win

Lions top 9 in NFL in O and D EPA. Ravens yet to see a QB as good as Goff (Burrow was hurt). Ravens offense getting predictable and 2/9 RZ last 2 weeks. Lions 3-0 on road, 3-0 on grass and 14-2 ATS last 16. 7-1 ATS last 8 on road. Ravens struggle in 4th qtr, even at home.

This total is dropping in part due to the weather forecast in Baltimore: No precipitation Sunday but windy as a front is apparently passing through Saturday night. Brick Tamland got nothing meteorological on me! The Lions have been great defensively at times this year and rank No. 1 against the run, which could be even more important if that windy forecast is correct. Only one of our books has it still at 42.5, getting past a magic number of 42. Five of Baltimore's six games this year have gone Under this number. I may come back and play Baltimore ATS/ML considering Detroit is without David Montgomery but will wait until Sunday morning most likely.