Holiday should get additional usage in this spot as the Celts will rely on his D. But sssshhhhhh don’t tell anyone, he also scores better than advertised. This is a over I’m playing. Thanks to Alex S. I crunched my numbers after hearing his analysis here

The road-tested Mavericks have lost two games away from their home court in the postseason, and their gentleman's sweep of the Timberwolves included three road victories. Even so, their valuable role players could struggle in their first foray under the bright lights of the NBA Finals. Moreover, the return of Kristaps Porzingis for Boston will give the Celtics a needed boost and create a matchup nightmare. Look for the Celtics to pull away and cover Game 1.

Game 1 is a bit of a feeling out game and Boston has a lot more to figure out with how it will defend Luka than Dallas does defensively. While the Celtics are busy trying different things, I expect Dallas to find an early rhythm and ride that to a Game 1 victory. With 6.5 points, I feel even safer.

Boston will have to get aggressive with doubles and blitzes on Luka as this series and even this game goes on, but early on I think they’ll try to stay rooted in switch and hold principles which will give Luka the chance to play one on one early. I think he has a huge first quarter and rides that to an over on this line.

With Kristaps Porzingis returning, Al Horford will come off the bench. But he'll still play 25 minutes, soaking up the minutes that were going to Luke Kornet. Horford has cleared this number in the last 10 games he's played with Porzingis. He's also cleared it in his last six matchups with Dallas. Horford shoots 44.4 percent from deep at home, the just-turned-38-year-old is as fresh now as he will be all series.

Tatum should thrive in this series. Dallas will have to switch looks on him…and it’s because they really don’t have anyone who matches up with Tatum. I think Tatum will get D rebounds and distribute enough to go over. BTW: if there were a Tatum FTs attempted prop I’d hammer the over.

The Mavericks received a scare when Dereck Lively II went down with a neck injury in Game 3 against the Timberwolves. Prior to that, he had posted at least 17 combined points, rebounds and assists in five of his previous six games. After sitting out their Game 4 loss, he returned to produce nine points, eight rebounds and three assists across 25 minutes in Game 5. He has become a key part of both their offense and defense, so look for Lively to log enough minutes to reach this over.

PJ Washington has been a key reason why the Mavericks have made it this far. During the playoffs, he has averaged 13.6 points and 2.4 three-pointers per game. One of the reasons why he has provided increased production is that he has logged an average of 37 minutes per game. With the Celtics likely to focus their defensive efforts on slowing down Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, expect Washington to receive enough quality looks to hit this over.

The Mavericks have two of the best clutch players in the NBA in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. That helps them keep games close. Of their five losses in the playoffs, four of them have been by five or fewer points. Even with a significant talent advantage against the Pacers in the previous round, three of the Celtics’ wins were by five or fewer points. I think the Mavericks keep this game close, if not win outright, so I’ll take the points.

Luka is the best in the NBA at scoring off isolation, Dallas makes you switch, Luka makes you pay. But Boston will employ a blitz technique which will force him to battle a double BEFORE a screen arrives. That means more opportunities for other Mavs and under for Luka.

Kyrie Irving is taking his game to another level and it was on display against Minnesota when he scored over 30 points three times in the five-game series. He wants to beat the Celtics badly and beat the Celtics fans he doesn’t have a great relationship with. The last time in Boston didn't go so well, 9 of 23 for 19 points including 1-7 from three-point range and the Celtics won easily 138-110. In a way, this is more about Kyrie Irving than it is about Luka Doncic. Luka’s going to get his but Kyrie is the wild card for everything that the Mavericks want to do in the postseason.

If assuming these sides pick up where they left off from when last seen, a compelling case can be made for the Mavs. After all, Dallas has now won five straight playoff games on the road, Luka Doncic has had a week to rest his sore leg, and Kyrie Irving looks to have tapped a rich vein of form. True, Boston has only lost twice in the postseason, but covered only one of four in the East final vs. Indiana, and also struggled with a depleted Cleveland. The Celtics have been fortunate to hit a shorthanded Heat (Jimmy B & Terry Rozier), Cavs (Jarrett Allen and, for the last two games, Donovan Mitchell), & Indy (no Tyrese Haliburton after Game 2). Play Mavs

Dereck Lively played 25 minutes after returning from his injury. He’s went over this number in five of the last six games. Lively has also hit this number in four straight road games. He was well on his way to going over this number before getting injured in game four as well. His PRA is only one point higher than his points and rebounds and Lively has had two assists, or more, in five of his last seven games.

This is a minutes play for Derrick Jones Jr. When he plays 26-33 minutes he is 23-7 to this over. If you take away the first game of the post season, he averages over 14 points and rebounds. They will need his strength and athleticism in this series for guys like Tatum and Brown, and he should play a critical 3 and D role. Look for the points and rebounds to follow from what should be a high volume minutes game from Jones.

One of the biggest reasons for the Mavericks postseason success has been Dereck Lively. His activity is constant and will be a challenge for the Boston Celtics. In the regular season he was perfect from the field going a combined ten for ten in both matchups against the Celtics. A wrinkle for Boston is that he was a starter in those matchups. Lively off the bench is arguably better suited for playoff basketball and will present challenges for Boston in game one. Take his points over.

Jrue Holiday is quietly having an exceptional postseason and the former All-Star is proving to be exactly the missing piece Boston thought it needed when it acquired him in the offseason. Holiday's value starts with his elite perimeter defense. But this postseason, he has really stepped up offensively. Holiday has scored 12-plus points in seven consecutive playoff games with blistering shooting splits of 50/40/90. Holiday also is logging upwards of 40-plus minutes and rarely leaves the floor. He has been far more aggressive looking for his shot in the playoffs; I'd set this line between 13.5 and 14.5 points.

Massive lean everywhere currently on the Over for Game 1 on Thursday. The two regular-season meetings each saw at least 229 points scored -- and the SL Model has 229 total points here. Sagarin and Massey both have around 220 points. The Mavs are way better defensively now but this much better? This is the first-ever Finals featuring the top two teams in 3-point attempts. So if they both can hit around 35% from deep, this should easily go Over. Three of Dallas' final four Western Conference Finals games against Minnesota, the NBA's top-ranked defense, comfortably topped this number.

Last four games between the Mavericks and the Celtics the last two seasons were at a total of 237 and 240 this season and 231 and 220 the year before. All those numbers are well above the low of 214 on the total for Game 1 this year. Defense is expected in the playoffs, but neither team plays defense. And the reason I like the over between these two squads in Game 1 is because the Mavericks are playing their best ball of the season right now executing and Boston's shooting 46 3-pointers a game and playing no defense. This has all the makings of being an over and the next game we'll see at 220.

Boston has handled long layoffs really well, so this is nothing new to them. In their Game 1s (all at home) they have 133, 120, and 114 points and that's with them holding huge leads in 2 of those games and calling off the dogs in 4th qtr. Porzingis should add scoring punch. Luka well rested, too. Usually takes a game or two for match-ups to set and defenses to shine. These teams combined for 229 and 248 in regular season. BOS 6-2 to the over at home in playoffs. DAL over in 3 straight on road and 5 of 6 overall.