The Pistons are red hot and in position to make a move on a top-four playoff seed. The Jazz have a two-game "lead" on the Pelicans for one of the league's three worst records, which carries the maximum 14% chance to securing the No. 1 overall pick. In short, Utah needs to lose and Detroit needs to win, and the Jazz have actually won two of their last five. This is a night for both teams to make certain of their respective needs.

All the hype is about Luka Doncic's first game against the Mavericks since the dumbest trade in NBA history, but I have been following the NBA a long time and more times than not things don't go according to script. Hollywood would love Luka to torch his old team in a blowout, but in reality I think the Mavericks keep it close.

LaMelo Ball has only gone over this number in two of his last eight games. You don't average almost 27 PPG by scoring 16.7 PPG over three weeks of basketball without reversing the trend, and the Kings are the perfect opponent for Ball to do so against.

The Warriors were a tough team even when they had to rely on tough baskets, but since Jimmy Butler arrived they have been getting easier opportunities by way of seven more free throws, six more shots in the restricted area and 10 more points off turnovers per game. Now they're not a tough team; they're a good team. And they'll start off the stretch run right with a win and cover vs. the Kings.

The Timberwolves and Rockets have played two close games this season -- a one-point Wolves win and an overtime Rockets win. It's a tight matchup, and without Julius Randle in the lineup Anthony Edwards will be able to work in better spacing. I like Minnesota to get on a hot streak down the stretch and it starts Friday night.

You might not realize it but the Mavericks are quietly 4-2 over their last six games since the Luka Doncic trade and are within two last-second baskets of that being a 6-0 mark. Kyrie Irving is playing brilliantly. Dallas covers against a Pelicans team that is going to begin fully embracing the tank down the stretch.

The Mavericks are basically without a big man, and the vibes on these two teams could not be any more opposite with the arrival of Jimmy Butler in Golden State and the still-shocking departure of Luka Doncic in Dallas -- not to mention the subsequent and immediate injury to Anthony Davis. Butler is giving the Warriors a huge boost as a second scorer and high-post facilitator; his ability to get to the free-throw line has made them much harder to guard and gives them an option to buoy their offense in rough shooting patches and non-Curry minutes.

With Paul George and Joel Embiid out, Tyrese Maxey is going to need to have a big night if the Sixers are going to have any chance to beat or even stay close with the Lakers. He is in top form, averaging 28 points per game for the month of January, and he's gone over this number in three of his last four games. I might normally bet on a streak like that to end with such a high number, but given the Lakers' struggles to defend on the perimeter, Maxey should be in for a lot of clean looks even with all the attention on him.

Kelly Oubre Jr. has gone over this number in seven of his last nine games, and in the two he didn't he was facing an elite defense in OKC and Orlando. Denver is a middling defensive team and with Joel Embiid out, Oubre will be extra aggressive to score.

Yes, the Heat are on a back to back after they completely blew a 17-point fourth quarter lead to lose at Sacramento in double overtime on Monday, and yeah, Jimmy Butler is out. Still, Golden State has not earned a line of this size, particularly without the services of Jonathan Kuminga. Miami keeps it close.

The Lakers have trouble controlling penetration but both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are out. L.A. should be able to control Dallas defensively and with LeBron James and Anthony Davis both in the lineup should have more than enough of a high-end talent gap to cover this line.

The Kings have won four straight since Mike Brown was fired. Adversity has a way of rallying the troops in the short term. Now it's the Heat facing the challenge of all the Jimmy Butler drama. Sacramento has not been a good team this season; don't let the last four games fool you too much. Miami is nothing if not tough. The Heat will fight and at least cover this line, if not win the game outright.

Golden State has a top-10 defense overall but much of that work was done early in the season. For the month of December, they're a bottom-10 unit and struggle particularly with containing penetration. Tyrese Haliburton should live in the teeth of the defense for kick-outs, and on his own he has made 46% of his last 41 3-pointers for a Pacers team that has won four straight, including three on the road. Give me Indiana with the points.

The Bucks have won 12 of their last 15 games to take a lot of the stink off their name, but it has come against a very soft schedule. They have also made this run largely for one reason: They've gotten hot from 3 -- 2nd in the league at 40.9 percent over that stretch. But OKC is not only way better than any team Milwaukee has beaten, but is specifically murder on opponents' 3-point shooting. Milwaukee is still a flawed team and OKC is going to expose that by shutting off the one thing that's been carrying the Bucks' success.

Both the Thunder and Rockets are elite defensive teams, but this is like a mini playoff game and in the end, though I believe it will be a tough, defensive battle for most of the night, OKC's ability to create individual offense with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams will allow them to pull away down the stretch.