The Warriors are favored by 3.5-4 depending on your book, and they can certainly cover that with Jimmy Butler back. But Houston is playing in must-win territory and Butler's return might sound better on paper than it looks on the court with that pelvic deep glute contusion. I'll take the safer play and bet a little more to not have to cover.

Moses Moody made three of six 3-pointers in Game 2 and Chase Center crowd will fuel him further. I continue to ride the Warriors' peripheral players getting open looks as Houston is selling out so hard on Stephen Curry.

The Nuggets are doing a pretty good job of running Norman Powell off the 3-point line, but it can't last forever with the way they are having to bend their defense to Kawhi Leonard and James Harden. Powell gets loose in Game 3 after a monster shot at the end of Game 2 reversed the vibes on what was tracking as a tough outing for him.

The Rockets need somebody to step up alongside Alperen Sengun to provide some offense, and this is a relatively low number for a guy who put up 19 shots in Game 1. Do you really see VanVleet missing 15 shots again? I'm betting on the big-game nerve of VanVleet on a young team in need of some offensive confidence.

Stephen Curry had three assists in Game 1 vs. Houston and that's because the Rockets sent, and will continue to send, two defenders at him. Typically, that means an outlet pass from Curry to get out of the trap and then another pass from whoever receives Curry's pass to the shooter or cutter with a 4-on-3 advantage. Curry, in other words, is the one who creates the leverage, but he's not the one who gets credited with the assist. Plus, six assists is a big number in what figures to be a low-scoring game.

Gary Payton II is the natural outlet on so many of Golden State's 4-on-3 advantages after Stephen Curry draws two on the ball. He is a better shooter than he reputation, or frankly numbers, suggest, and he shoots it with confidence. He'll make at least one, especially with the possibility of Brandin Podziemski being out and Payton getting more minutes. But even if Podz plays, I like the over here for Payton.

I think Houston is going to make this a long series and they may very well win Game 2. But this is too many points in a coin-flip game in favor of the team with the two best players on the floor. Don't overthink this.

Norman Powell averaged 3.0 3-pointers per game this season on fewer than 33 minutes a night. He played 37 in Game 1 and will likely be near 40 again in Game 2 as the Clippers are in basically a must-win situation. Combine more minutes with the high pace the Nuggets play at, meaning more possessions, and Powell should get at least an extra attempt or two above his normal volume. That's a good bet to take for a 42% 3-point shooter.

This isn't too far from a must-win for the Clippers, who are one of the best teams in the league and clicking on both sides of the ball. I just can't see world where they go down 0-2 in this series.

This is a bet on Stephen Curry's greatness, plain and simple. Amen Thompson is a world-class defender and Curry averaged just 17 PPG in three games against the Rockets this season. He was held to three points in an early April loss at Houston. All of this only makes me more confident in Curry clearing 24.5 in this one. We're talking about one of the greatest, proudest and most innovative scorers ever, and he's not going to let the Rockets get the best of him again.

De'Andre Hunter closed the season by making multiple 3-pointers in six straight games and he did so in 19 out of his 27 games with the Cavs. The Heat are an average 3-point defensive team and will be so focused on sinking down on the penetration of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland that Hunter should benefit from a lot of open catch-and-shoot 3s.

There's some momentum behind the Heat because they got through a couple play-in wins. Terrific. They beat the Bulls and the Hawks. Cleveland is arguably the best team in the league, and Miami is going to find out quickly in this series that Culture doesn't get buckets and Jimmy Butler isn't walking through that door. Cleveland is going to roll, beginning with a blowout opener.

As this series goes on, the Knicks will look for adjustments to their pick-and-roll coverage, but in the feel-out Game 1 Karl-Anthony Towns is probably going to play a lot of drop coverage and Cade Cunningham has become a legit pull-up threat. He's going to feast early.

Detroit was 3-1 against the Knicks this season and was the far better team over the final three months. The Pistons were also a comfortable road team with a 22-19 record and a plus-2.4 point differential. Jalen Brunson is back, yes. But Detroit's defense is superior to New York's and the Pistons are riding a lot of young-gun vibes into Game 1. Seven points is too many.

James Harden, who is coming off a monster 39-point showing in L.A.'s win over Golden State to seal the No. 5 seed, has gone over this number in 15 of his last 21 games and defense isn't exactly Denver's strong suit. Throw out the narrative that Harden doesn't perform in the playoffs. It's wildly exaggerated. He'll have some stinkers that stand out, but for the most part he's good for this kind of number.