Kelly Oubre Jr. has gone over this number in seven of his last nine games, and in the two he didn't he was facing an elite defense in OKC and Orlando. Denver is a middling defensive team and with Joel Embiid out, Oubre will be extra aggressive to score.

Yes, the Heat are on a back to back after they completely blew a 17-point fourth quarter lead to lose at Sacramento in double overtime on Monday, and yeah, Jimmy Butler is out. Still, Golden State has not earned a line of this size, particularly without the services of Jonathan Kuminga. Miami keeps it close.

The Lakers have trouble controlling penetration but both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are out. L.A. should be able to control Dallas defensively and with LeBron James and Anthony Davis both in the lineup should have more than enough of a high-end talent gap to cover this line.

The Kings have won four straight since Mike Brown was fired. Adversity has a way of rallying the troops in the short term. Now it's the Heat facing the challenge of all the Jimmy Butler drama. Sacramento has not been a good team this season; don't let the last four games fool you too much. Miami is nothing if not tough. The Heat will fight and at least cover this line, if not win the game outright.

Golden State has a top-10 defense overall but much of that work was done early in the season. For the month of December, they're a bottom-10 unit and struggle particularly with containing penetration. Tyrese Haliburton should live in the teeth of the defense for kick-outs, and on his own he has made 46% of his last 41 3-pointers for a Pacers team that has won four straight, including three on the road. Give me Indiana with the points.

The Bucks have won 12 of their last 15 games to take a lot of the stink off their name, but it has come against a very soft schedule. They have also made this run largely for one reason: They've gotten hot from 3 -- 2nd in the league at 40.9 percent over that stretch. But OKC is not only way better than any team Milwaukee has beaten, but is specifically murder on opponents' 3-point shooting. Milwaukee is still a flawed team and OKC is going to expose that by shutting off the one thing that's been carrying the Bucks' success.

Both the Thunder and Rockets are elite defensive teams, but this is like a mini playoff game and in the end, though I believe it will be a tough, defensive battle for most of the night, OKC's ability to create individual offense with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams will allow them to pull away down the stretch.

The Warriors are 2-0 this season against the Rockets and held a 31-point lead in one of the games. They've won a shootout and a defensive affair, and get this: Stephen Curry didn't play in either game. Curry is active for this one AND the Warriors are getting points? I'll take that.

The Mavericks emphasize 3-point defense, and the Thunder move and cut as well as any team in the league. Isaiah Hartenstein is a wonderful two-man facilitator and high-post hub passer, and Dallas' overextension to cover the line should open up plenty of playmaking opportunities for Hartenstein in the middle of the floor.

The Celtics have won 16 of their last 17 games against the Grizzlies, and Jayson Tatum has literally never lost to them in his career (13-0). This can't continue for much longer. Memphis is too good, and in this case, getting too many points.

Dallas is one of the stingiest 3-point defenses in the league, but Memphis scores a ton of paint points and the Mavericks will have to sink down some to mitigate that. Jaylen Wells is always ready to shoot quickly off the catch, and he has covered this number in five of his last six games.

Mikal Bridges has had a rough go behind the arc this season. His five 3s in his last game was against a battered New Orleans team and Orlando is going to be happy to leave him to prove he can do that again. Which is to say, Bridges will be the shooter, not the creator, in this one, and he's not terribly effective creating leverage against tight pressure as it is, which Orlando applies in spades. There shouldn't be a lot of playmaking opportunities available to Bridges, who has recorded fewer than three assists in four of his last fives games including zero in two of them.

The Houston Rockets give up the fourth fewest 3s per game, both attempts and makes. Anthony Edwards has gone over this number in all but three games, but he has thrived on open looks (49% conversion rate with closest defender between 4-6 feet, per NBA.com tracking). He won't be getting a lot of those looks on Tuesday with Houston's ability to switch across the perimeter and stay attached to shooters because everyone can keep their man in front. If Edwards is going to go over, he'll have to do it against heavy contests. I'll take the under.

Golden State is on a back-to-back and Victor Wembanyama is active for the Spurs, who register as a top-10 defense and a bottom-10 offense. San Antonio struggles to score and the Warriors' shots don't fall at quite the same rate on tired legs.

Usually I hate going against teams with key players out as we too easily overlook the abilities of every NBA player and the lines tend to overcorrect, but in this case, who is going to put the ball in the the hoop for New Orleans? Their top seven players are all out. Cleveland is on a back-to-back and could be hung over from its first loss of the season, but I don't care. I'll take my chances on the Pels simply fading away on their own.