Moses Moody has played extremely well down the stretch of the season and he's going to see plenty of shots with the Grizzlies tracking Stephen Curry with multiple defenders and sinking down on Jimmy Butler drives. I like a big game for Moody.

Only the Utah Jazz allowed more wide-open 3-pointers (nearest defender at least six feet away) than the Grizzlies, who surrendered over 22 of these premium shots per game this season. With Memphis focused on Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler, Moody is going to get his share of open looks. I'm betting he can knock down at least a couple of them.

Public perception of these two teams could not be any more opposite. The feeling on the Warriors is that they're some kind of top-tier title contender but quietly they limped home losing three of their last five games and did most of their post-Jimmy Butler trade damage against a soft schedule. Meanwhile, everyone acts like Memphis is in the tank because of the weird coach firing, but this is a supremely talented team that is going to be playing with its hair on fire. Golden State may win, but seven points is way too much in what should be a one- or two-possession game either way.

It feels like the Warriors would have secured their playoff position with all the winning since Jimmy Butler arrived, but they're barely above the play-in line and every game could drop them below. This is must-win time and the Warriors are playing fantastic. It continues tonight, even on a back to back.

The Pacers have been one of the best teams in the league since the turn of the calendar. They took the Lakers to the wire and put 162 points on the Wizards in their last two. This is too many points for a team playing this well.

For all the talk of Jimmy Butler unlocking Stephen Curry on the offensive end, the same is true for what he's done for Draymond Green on the defensive end. Green is flying around like a top-tier DPOY candidate and the Hawks are not going to match the energy even with Curry out.

The Nuggets defeated the Lakers in a tight game on Friday. Usually, having to turn right back around and play the next night would spell trouble, but Denver is 11-1 on the back end of back-to-backs this season and has won those 11 games by an astounding average of 18 points.

I've also picked the Nuggets to cover 11.5 here, but I am even more confident in the under 241 due to the energy Denver expended in holding off the Lakers on Friday. Denver pulls away in the second half, but scoring will hit some dry spells throughout this one.

Golden State has had to pull out a lot of tough games of late, probably tougher than they had to be against the likes of Orlando, Brooklyn and even Detroit. It's time for a cruiser even with Portland playing pretty well as the Warriors continue their winning ways.

Amen Thompson is out for the Rockets and that's no small detail. Thompson's impact is massive and Orlando, which struggles to score against everyone, will be grateful for the extra breathing room. That's enough to take the Magic here against a Rockets team that has lost 11 of its last 18 games and could be hitting a bit of a wall.

The Pistons are red hot and in position to make a move on a top-four playoff seed. The Jazz have a two-game "lead" on the Pelicans for one of the league's three worst records, which carries the maximum 14% chance to securing the No. 1 overall pick. In short, Utah needs to lose and Detroit needs to win, and the Jazz have actually won two of their last five. This is a night for both teams to make certain of their respective needs.

All the hype is about Luka Doncic's first game against the Mavericks since the dumbest trade in NBA history, but I have been following the NBA a long time and more times than not things don't go according to script. Hollywood would love Luka to torch his old team in a blowout, but in reality I think the Mavericks keep it close.

LaMelo Ball has only gone over this number in two of his last eight games. You don't average almost 27 PPG by scoring 16.7 PPG over three weeks of basketball without reversing the trend, and the Kings are the perfect opponent for Ball to do so against.

The Warriors were a tough team even when they had to rely on tough baskets, but since Jimmy Butler arrived they have been getting easier opportunities by way of seven more free throws, six more shots in the restricted area and 10 more points off turnovers per game. Now they're not a tough team; they're a good team. And they'll start off the stretch run right with a win and cover vs. the Kings.

The Timberwolves and Rockets have played two close games this season -- a one-point Wolves win and an overtime Rockets win. It's a tight matchup, and without Julius Randle in the lineup Anthony Edwards will be able to work in better spacing. I like Minnesota to get on a hot streak down the stretch and it starts Friday night.