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Brad Botkin

Book Nerd

Brad Botkin is a senior NBA writer who has been with CBS Sports since 2011, the first seven as an editor, and over that time he has refined his wagering approach down to one basic rule: Do not trust your first instinct. This most often applies to the glamorous teams and players, but Overs fall into this category, too. Casual gamblers love the big teams and Overs, and the books steal value accordingly. When Brad sees a bet that screams one way, he is always intrigued to look deeper into the opposite angle. For Brad Botkin media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

7-2 in Last 9 NBA Player Props Picks
+695
RECORD: 7-2-0
+695
7-2 in Last 9 NBA Player Props Picks

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Brad's Past Picks

Jan 08 2025, 3:00 am UTC
League
Miami
114
@ Golden St.
98
+623
14-7 in Last 21 NBA Picks
+263
6-3 in Last 9 NBA ATS Picks
+790
8-1 in Last 9 GS ATS Picks
Analysis:

Yes, the Heat are on a back to back after they completely blew a 17-point fourth quarter lead to lose at Sacramento in double overtime on Monday, and yeah, Jimmy Butler is out. Still, Golden State has not earned a line of this size, particularly without the services of Jonathan Kuminga. Miami keeps it close.

Pick Made: Jan 07, 9:46 pm UTC on FanDuel
Jan 08 2025, 12:30 am UTC
League
L.A. Lakers
97
@ Dallas
118
+623
14-7 in Last 21 NBA Picks
+263
6-3 in Last 9 NBA ATS Picks
+82
3-2-1 in Last 6 DAL ATS Picks
Analysis:

The Lakers have trouble controlling penetration but both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are out. L.A. should be able to control Dallas defensively and with LeBron James and Anthony Davis both in the lineup should have more than enough of a high-end talent gap to cover this line.

Pick Made: Jan 07, 9:49 pm UTC on Caesars
Jan 07 2025, 3:00 am UTC
League
Miami
118
@ Sacramento
123
+623
14-7 in Last 21 NBA Picks
+263
6-3 in Last 9 NBA ATS Picks
+188
3-1 in Last 4 MIA ATS Picks
Analysis:

The Kings have won four straight since Mike Brown was fired. Adversity has a way of rallying the troops in the short term. Now it's the Heat facing the challenge of all the Jimmy Butler drama. Sacramento has not been a good team this season; don't let the last four games fool you too much. Miami is nothing if not tough. The Heat will fight and at least cover this line, if not win the game outright.

Pick Made: Jan 07, 12:33 am UTC on FanDuel
Dec 24 2024, 3:00 am UTC
League
Indiana
111
@ Golden St.
105
+623
14-7 in Last 21 NBA Picks
+263
6-3 in Last 9 NBA ATS Picks
+790
8-1 in Last 9 GS ATS Picks
Analysis:

Golden State has a top-10 defense overall but much of that work was done early in the season. For the month of December, they're a bottom-10 unit and struggle particularly with containing penetration. Tyrese Haliburton should live in the teeth of the defense for kick-outs, and on his own he has made 46% of his last 41 3-pointers for a Pacers team that has won four straight, including three on the road. Give me Indiana with the points.

Pick Made: Dec 24, 12:06 am UTC on Sugar House
Dec 18 2024, 1:30 am UTC
League
Milwaukee
97
@ Oklahoma City
81
+623
14-7 in Last 21 NBA Picks
+263
6-3 in Last 9 NBA ATS Picks
+273
5-2 in Last 7 OKC ATS Picks
Analysis:

The Bucks have won 12 of their last 15 games to take a lot of the stink off their name, but it has come against a very soft schedule. They have also made this run largely for one reason: They've gotten hot from 3 -- 2nd in the league at 40.9 percent over that stretch. But OKC is not only way better than any team Milwaukee has beaten, but is specifically murder on opponents' 3-point shooting. Milwaukee is still a flawed team and OKC is going to expose that by shutting off the one thing that's been carrying the Bucks' success.

Pick Made: Dec 17, 9:55 pm UTC on BetMGM
Dec 15 2024, 1:30 am UTC
League
Houston
96
@ Oklahoma City
111
+623
14-7 in Last 21 NBA Picks
+263
6-3 in Last 9 NBA ATS Picks
+273
5-2 in Last 7 OKC ATS Picks
Analysis:

Both the Thunder and Rockets are elite defensive teams, but this is like a mini playoff game and in the end, though I believe it will be a tough, defensive battle for most of the night, OKC's ability to create individual offense with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams will allow them to pull away down the stretch.

Pick Made: Dec 14, 10:53 pm UTC on BetMGM
Dec 12 2024, 2:30 am UTC
League
Golden St.
90
@ Houston
91
+623
14-7 in Last 21 NBA Picks
+263
6-3 in Last 9 NBA ATS Picks
+790
8-1 in Last 9 GS ATS Picks
Analysis:

The Warriors are 2-0 this season against the Rockets and held a 31-point lead in one of the games. They've won a shootout and a defensive affair, and get this: Stephen Curry didn't play in either game. Curry is active for this one AND the Warriors are getting points? I'll take that.

Pick Made: Dec 12, 12:21 am UTC on Caesars
Dec 11 2024, 2:30 am UTC
League
Dallas
104
@ Oklahoma City
118
+695
7-2 in Last 9 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

The Mavericks emphasize 3-point defense, and the Thunder move and cut as well as any team in the league. Isaiah Hartenstein is a wonderful two-man facilitator and high-post hub passer, and Dallas' overextension to cover the line should open up plenty of playmaking opportunities for Hartenstein in the middle of the floor.

Pick Made: Dec 11, 1:02 am UTC on FanDuel
Dec 08 2024, 1:00 am UTC
League
Memphis
127
@ Boston
121
+623
14-7 in Last 21 NBA Picks
+263
6-3 in Last 9 NBA ATS Picks
+300
3-0-1 in Last 4 BOS ATS Picks
Analysis:

The Celtics have won 16 of their last 17 games against the Grizzlies, and Jayson Tatum has literally never lost to them in his career (13-0). This can't continue for much longer. Memphis is too good, and in this case, getting too many points.

Pick Made: Dec 07, 11:47 pm UTC on DraftKings
Dec 04 2024, 1:30 am UTC
League
Memphis
116
@ Dallas
121
+695
7-2 in Last 9 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

Dallas is one of the stingiest 3-point defenses in the league, but Memphis scores a ton of paint points and the Mavericks will have to sink down some to mitigate that. Jaylen Wells is always ready to shoot quickly off the catch, and he has covered this number in five of his last six games.

Pick Made: Dec 03, 9:25 pm UTC on BetMGM
Dec 04 2024, 12:30 am UTC
League
Orlando
106
@ New York
121
+695
7-2 in Last 9 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

Mikal Bridges has had a rough go behind the arc this season. His five 3s in his last game was against a battered New Orleans team and Orlando is going to be happy to leave him to prove he can do that again. Which is to say, Bridges will be the shooter, not the creator, in this one, and he's not terribly effective creating leverage against tight pressure as it is, which Orlando applies in spades. There shouldn't be a lot of playmaking opportunities available to Bridges, who has recorded fewer than three assists in four of his last fives games including zero in two of them.

Pick Made: Dec 03, 9:34 pm UTC on FanDuel
Nov 27 2024, 1:00 am UTC
League
Houston
117
@ Minnesota
111
+695
7-2 in Last 9 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

The Houston Rockets give up the fourth fewest 3s per game, both attempts and makes. Anthony Edwards has gone over this number in all but three games, but he has thrived on open looks (49% conversion rate with closest defender between 4-6 feet, per NBA.com tracking). He won't be getting a lot of those looks on Tuesday with Houston's ability to switch across the perimeter and stay attached to shooters because everyone can keep their man in front. If Edwards is going to go over, he'll have to do it against heavy contests. I'll take the under.

Pick Made: Nov 26, 9:27 pm UTC on BetMGM
Nov 24 2024, 1:30 am UTC
League
Golden St.
94
@ San Antonio
104
+623
14-7 in Last 21 NBA Picks
Analysis:

Golden State is on a back-to-back and Victor Wembanyama is active for the Spurs, who register as a top-10 defense and a bottom-10 offense. San Antonio struggles to score and the Warriors' shots don't fall at quite the same rate on tired legs.

Pick Made: Nov 24, 12:33 am UTC on Caesars
Nov 21 2024, 12:30 am UTC
League
New Orleans
100
@ Cleveland
128
+623
14-7 in Last 21 NBA Picks
+263
6-3 in Last 9 NBA ATS Picks
+285
4-1 in Last 5 NO ATS Picks
Analysis:

Usually I hate going against teams with key players out as we too easily overlook the abilities of every NBA player and the lines tend to overcorrect, but in this case, who is going to put the ball in the the hoop for New Orleans? Their top seven players are all out. Cleveland is on a back-to-back and could be hung over from its first loss of the season, but I don't care. I'll take my chances on the Pels simply fading away on their own.

Pick Made: Nov 20, 11:19 pm UTC on FanDuel
Nov 21 2024, 12:30 am UTC
League
New Orleans
100
@ Cleveland
128
+623
14-7 in Last 21 NBA Picks
Analysis:

The Pelicans are without Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, Dejounte Murray, CJ McCollum, Herb Jones, Jose Alvarado, Trey Murphy III and Jordan Hawkins. The Cavs are without Darius Garland, which hurts their offense, but have the two big men to still limit things defensively against a positively G-League Pels offense. I don't see how this game goes over 217.

Pick Made: Nov 20, 11:24 pm UTC on Caesars
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