Minnesota is winless at home this season. The Vikings face one of the best teams in football, who are dealing with several injury concerns tonight. Deebo Samuel is out, Trent Williams is doubtful, and Christian McCaffrey will probably play, but should be limited. Minnesota has covered two of their last three games and should be bringing the pressure to Brock Purdy like the Browns game plan last week. The Vikings still have options on offense despite being without Justin Jefferson if Kirk Cousins can execute on primetime.

The 49ers were undone by arguably the NFL’s best defense on the road last week. The Vikings’ only wins this season are over the Panthers and Bears, yet Monday night, they are without arguably league’s best playmaker, Justin Jefferson. It’s going to be tough for Jordan Addison to fill those shoes but easy for the 49ers to adjust defensively. Christian McCaffrey is active, which makes up for the absence of Deebo Samuel. Perfect bounce-back spot for the Niners (13-4 ATS run) against a team in crisis. Do you trust Kirk Cousins in primetime (2-10 straight up on Monday night) and even at home (0-5 ATS streak)? This is available for -6.5 (-115), which is a preferable line.

It's been a good week for underdogs ATS and I think that continues tonight with a big home underdog in the Minnesota Vikings. Take note that this total is fairly low, which makes the seven point spread all the more enticing. Add the fact that we are fading the public who are enticed to fade a wilting Vikings team minus their best offensive weapon in Justin Jefferson. Meanwhile, the 49ers are playing back to back road games and are also down Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams and we are still unsure if Christian McCaffrey will be a full go.

Really wish this was at 27.5 points, but Brock Purdy could struggle again without Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams and maybe a less than 100 percent Christian McCaffrey. Minnesota's defense actually has played fairly well of late and is up to the 12th-best unit in the league in yards per play allowed at 4.9.

Although K.J. Osborn has been criticized in some circles for his metric-based inefficiency, he continues to be undervalued in the betting market. He surpassed this number early in the second quarter last week against Bears before an ugly game in inclement weather saw the Vikings punt four times and miss a field goal on their second-half possessions. With what should be a more favorable game script for the passing game against a stout 49ers run defense (80. 2 ypg, No. 3 in the NFL) and the likelihood the Vikings could be playing catch up, Osborn should clip this number again.

I don't expect the Vikings to have much success on the ground, forcing Kirk Cousins to throw early and often. In Minnesota's four losses, Cousins has thrown 44, 44, 50 and 47 times. With the Vikings closing as touchdown underdogs, Cousins figures to throw at least 37 times.

Dropping the unit size to 0.5u tonight with the Vikings +7. Early in the week, I leaned towards San Francisco, but I don't like the way the injury report has shaped up for their side. With Deebo Samuel out, McCaffrey limited, and question marks on the offensive line, I give the ATS edge to Minnesota. With additional time for Brian Flores to have the defense prepared for a watered-down Brock Purdy offense, Minnesota will continue to blitz at a high rate, which is exactly the kind of test I want to throw at Brock Purdy with limited weapons on the road. I'll take the 7 points.

Kirk Cousins has gone two straight games without throwing an interception, but in this matchup I like him to get picked at least once. Without Justin Jefferson, Cousins will have several dropbacks in which his receivers don't gain separation. That puts him in a difficult spot against a 49ers defense that's already made 10 interceptions.

Christian McCaffrey is active you play Christian McCaffrey with every over prop you can get. I'm going over his combined yards of 94.5. Throw out the game at Cleveland because he left early. In the other five games CMC was over this number four of the five and has a median of 135 total yards per game.

Purdy has gone under three of his last five games and under in two of his three road games. With left tackle Trent Williams out Purdy will be rushed more often and the loss of Deebo Samuel I think Purdy has just one touchdown pass.

Both run defenses are top five however I don't think either team will give up on the run but it could make 3rd and long more a factor in this game. The 49ers are without Deebo Samuel and left tackle Trent Williams but most likely get back LB Dre Greenlaw (1.5pts to the line & defense). Minnesota is without all-world WR Justin Jefferson. My model has this total at 39.

It's tough to guess when it comes to injuries and workload, but we do know that Christian McCaffrey has an injury that was potentially going to keep him out of the game this week. He typically sails over this rush attempt total, but with the re-injury risk plus a healthy Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason, I see him doing more in the passing game than between the tackles. A lot more juice than I typically lay, but I don't see him with the typical workload this week.

The Vikings surely aren't winning 'em all this season, but they are usually pretty close, and all games decided by seven points or fewer. Including a pair of combative losses to the Eagles and Chiefs. Another close loss would not surprise tonight, but not sure the Niners pull away, wither, without the injured Deebo Samuel, and Christian McCaffrey likely playing at something less than 100% tonight. Play Vikings

Kittle has exceeded 4 grabs one time. His median is 3 receptions. I project 3.5-4 so I see some value on under 4.5. As I think the McCaffrey injury is being overvalued with respect to how it affects other 49ers, let’s go under. This is a half unit play.

With Deebo Samuel out tonight, Brock Purdy might have to look for different downfield threats in his passing game. Look for the baton to be picked up by George Kittle, who is renowned for yards after catches...at least when Purdy utilizes him. That hasn't happened so much in the first six games, but both games Purdy targeted Kittle more than three times, his long gain far exceeded this 20.5 yards, and he did score 3 TDs in the recent Dallas romp.

I'll keep this one simple: in three games last season without Deebo Samuel and with Brock Purdy starting at quarterback, Kittle scored five total touchdowns including at least one in each game. No Deebo tonight in Minnesota so let's hope the trend continues.

With Deebo Samuel out and Christian McCaffrey expected to play hurt, it might seem smart to go Over on George Kittle props. But I like his Under for two reasons: The 49ers might need him to block more with Trent Williams doubtful, and the Vikings give up the third-fewest yards per target (4.6) to opposing tight ends. Travis Kelce had a huge game against Minnesota (12 catches, 88 yards, TD), but the Vikings held the position in check in their five other games.

With Deebo Samuel out, Jauan Jennings should see more looks starting opposite Brandon Aiyuk. The 6-foot-3 Jennings averages 18.1 yards per catch. He will be matched up often with Vikings corner Byron Murphy, who's been torched for 27 catches on 37 targets for 308 yards and three TDs. Look for Jennings to rack up at least 30 yards.

Brock Purdy without an all-world left tackle on the road in a dome in prime time against the NFL sack leader sounds problematic. He's gotten away with a bunch of tipped passed and deflections not ending up in a defender's hands when he had all his studs around him. He was already due for INT regression and now there are more factors at play. Even if CMC plays Kyle Shanahan will take it easy on him. There is a lot of value here on an experienced QB in this spot without his creature comforts. Last week won't be an anomoly.

Maybe that Browns defense isn't a reincarnation of the '86 Bears and maybe the 49ers have some offensive issues? Is that possible? Just maybe losing Deebo and Trent WIlliams and having a beat-up CMC will slow down the 49ers. who head back on the road? Maybe that wasn't a total fluke. Maybe them going from 6.2 yards/play with CMC and Deebo to 4.0 without them will factor in. Maybe Purdy under duress will be a problem. Quietly last 3 weeks MIN allowing just 4.3/play with an 89.1 rating with 12 sacks. Adapting to Flores blitz happy scheme. And 49ers defense will do their part, holding opponent below 20 points.

Vikings safety Josh Metellus isn't technically a starter, but his 359 snaps are fifth-most on the defense. No Minnesota player has a higher PFF grade against the run. With the 49ers coming to town, the Vikes' run defense will be critical. Metellus is averaging seven tackles plus assists this season and has cleared this prop in every game.

The Vikings averaged a paltry 4.0 yards per play against the Bears last week, as Justin Jefferson's absence clearly impacted them. It won't get easier Monday night against a 49ers defense that ranks third in yards per play allowed (4.5). Kirk Cousins has fumbled seven times, losing four, to go with his four interceptions. San Francisco already has 11 takeaways. Christian McCaffrey (oblique) is questionable, providing hope for an offense that will be without Deebo Samuel (shoulder) and Trent Williams (ankle). But even if CMC doesn't play, Brock Purdy and Kyle Shanahan have enough weapons, starting with Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Jauan Jennings (18.1 yards per catch).

Two robust offenses cope with serious vacancies, especially if 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey takes a pass. He is questionable, while dynamic WR Deebo Samuel is a certain scratch. The versatile McCaffrey might qualify as the most valuable non-QB on any NFL offense. For Minnesota, incomparable WR Justin Jefferson is on injured reserve, and his absence was immediately felt last week. The Vikings mustered up a mere 220 yards and 12 points on offense versus Chicago's unthreatening defense. All signs suggest that San Fran's nasty defense, which yields a league-low 14.5 ppg, seizing control early and dictating the pace, particularlycoming off QB Brock Purdy's rare dud a week ago.

Brandon Aiyuk is having a true breakout season. The 4th year receiver's target profile is as impressive as any WR outside of Tyreek Hill. He is the unquestioned engine of the 49ers passing offense and could be set for an even bigger role on MNF. Deebo Samuel is unlikely to play and Christian McCraffrey is a GTD. Regardless of who suits up I think Aiyuk is going to be heavily featured and I am shocked this number isn't 5.5, although I expect to be by kickoff. I also like over on Aiyuks yards and alt lines as well, but this is my first choice.

We'll lock in this key number while it's still available on a spread that seems destined to settle lower, considering Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel are trending toward being out for the 49ers. The desperate Vikings grinded out an ugly 19-13 win against the Bears last week. Despite their shortcomings, they have a respectable run defense and all 4 of their losses have come by 7 points or fewer. Following their first loss of the season, look for the 49ers to be in another tight one Monday night.