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Simulation Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
Understanding Public and Money
Expert Picks
Neither team is particularly explosive on offense, and the Chargers are one of the best defensive teams in the NFL. Look for this game to be ugly at first with the Chargers pulling away in the second half.
I wish I would've jumped on this spread earlier when it was in the 4-4.5 range, but I have the Chargers projected to win by 7+ points so there is still plenty of value in this number. The Chargers are a well-coached team with a lot to play for at this point in the season. New England has a lot of young talent and the upside is massive with QB Drake Maye, but the Chargers should roll here.
Haven't done a ton of totals this season for whatever reason. I'm generally not a fan of them because they can be irrelevant to the game result, and I'm still kinda stuck in that zone. But the weather doesn't look all that lovely in the Boston area with cold rain, and we have two older-school head coaches who probably would both prefer to run the Wing-T and not throw the ball at all. Our model has 39 points scored. I'm a tad surprised with the forecast this is above the key number of 41.
No quit in the Patriots, who for a good while had the mighty Bills on the ropes last week at Orchard Park. At Gillette Stadium this season, only the Texans pulled clear in what was rookie QB Drake Maye's first start. Maye has made real progress since, tossing a TD pass in seven straight starts. The Bolts sew up a playoff berth with a win, but too often this offense has looked pedestrian this season, especially on the road, where it hasn't scored more than 17 points in five of its last six as a visitor. Jim Harbaugh will be glad to take a close win here to get to the playoffs, even if the margin is provided by a Cameron Dicker FG. Play Patriots
Fully prepared to take this at -3 and then -4 as it shifted during the week. Moving past the key number is frustrating, but this looks headed to as high as -6 before kickoff. The Patriots are getting a lot of love for an impressively close loss to the Bills last week, which ignores their otherwise rough play of late. The Chargers are in a terrible travel spot, but they're on eight-plus days rest, and they have both the quarterbacking and coaching advantage. Will update further Saturday AM.
The Chargers got some (really) good and (less significant) bad news on its RBs. While productive backup Gus Edwards has been scratched, standout J.K. Dobbins returns after a four-game absence that impaired L.A.'s rushing attack. As promising as rookie QB Drake Maye has looked, the Patriots are 1-8 when he has played the bulk of games. First-year coach Jim Harbaugh has had the Chargers ready to play for early kickoffs in the Eastern time zone. They are 3-1 straight-up. Having last played on Thursday night, they benefit from additional rest -- a boon at this late stage of the season.
The Chargers are 9-6 this season and have covered the spread 10 out of 15 while staying under nine of 15. They face a trouble spot with the Patriots who are 3-12 but scrappy and dangerous with rookie quarterback Drake Maye. The Patriots have lost five straight but went down to the wire last week at Buffalo 24-21 when they were getting 14 points and they barely lost against the Colts 25-24 3 weeks ago. The Chargers beat the Broncos 34-27 last week. The Chargers have also been playing over the total in four of their last six games compared to a conservative approach earlier in the season. Most of all the Chargers can clinch a playoff berth with the victory. Chargers cover.
You can still grab the Chargers first half spread at -2.5 on FD. This line is up to -3.5 on some books. The Chargers are 10-5 ATS in 1H, while the Patriots are 5-10 ATS in that same spot. Justin Herbert has an ugly 25-48-5 ATS record in the second half for his career. The Chargers have been known to blow a lead, so I’ll play the first half as well in case the -4.5 loses on a backdoor cover. With this 1H line still under a FG, I’m willing to double down on L.A and wager that they control this game wire-to-wire.
The Chargers must win to clinch a playoff spot, and can drastically improve their first round matchup with a strong end to the season (#7 seed plays Buffalo, #5 seed plays Houston). New England has been feisty, and played the Bills close as +14 dogs in a 24-21 loss last week. However, that game felt pretty fluky. The Bills played poorly and still should have won by double digits. Drake Maye has impressed in his rookie campaign, but he’s also thrown an interception in 7 straight games. The Chargers defense has faltered over the past few weeks, but they’ve played the Chiefs, Bucs & Broncos. I like them to right the ship here. Jim Harbaugh is 26-7 ATS a favorite of 6 or less.
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It's do or die time for the Chargers and expect Justin Herbert to lock in on the few things he can absolutely trust in the passing game. This rookie is it. No target share would shock me and yes, the Pats will know where the ball is going but this kid has a knack for finding holes and getting open. He is over this in 4 of the last 5 games and caught 9 balls in his last road game. Herbert's ability to make unreal off-platform shows will be a big factor in this game.
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Chargers linebacker Daiyan Henley has made double-digit tackles in eight of the past nine games, and now he faces a Patriots team that's run the ball at the 9th-highest rate over the past three games. For the season, New England's offense has generated the highest tackle rate (31.1 percent) for opposing linebackers.
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Rhamondre Stevenson has been the Patriots best offensive player and has eclipsed this line in 5 of his last 6 appearances while averaging a healthy 72 rushing yards per game. He will face a soft Chargers run defense that has been very soft in the middle and I expect a heavy dose of Rhamondre Stevenson from New England.
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FanDuel. Will gladly run back this Hunter Henry prop that we cashed last week. Henry is under this line in 11/15 games, including each of the last nine. The chargers allow the second fewest yards per reception to TEs this season, and the fifth fewest yards per target.
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Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson has been efficient the past three games, averaging 4.7 yards per carry while recording at least 60 rushing yards in each. Now he faces a Chargers team that rarely stacks the box and has given up 5.0 yards per carry over the past three games. Look for Stevenson to get another 50-plus rushing yards Saturday.
The Chargers offense re-emerged last week after four straight games under 300 yards, and they should continue to play well in this matchup. But the Patriots have been fighting hard down the stretch as Drake Maye develops into a leader as the franchise QB, and I expect they'll want to end the year with a win or two after coming close three times in their last five losses. The Chargers defense has been less than impressive since Week 11, and they'll be in a tough spot with the early start time here. We can get this cover multiple ways, including with a backdoor cover by Maye or a tough fight for 60 minutes.
Chargers games have gotten a little batty lately but this has been a heavy under team. For good reason. In the cold, traveling east in mid-winter, Jim Harbaugh will play this slow and on the ground. Gus Edwards finally has a pulse again. LAC have not played a road game above 39 points all season, and average 33.29 points, by far lowest in NFL. Drake Maye is playing fine but this is a popgun offense. Justin Herbert is under in 7 of his last 8 games as a road favorite.
Team Injuries
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