Another internal debate over an island game. We’ve done well with the Broncos; their recent dominance (5-0 ATS, 4-0 SU) has been great … so why are they nearly a FG underdog to a Chargers team that is 1-3 SU with a 40-17 home loss to the Buccaneers four days ago? Dig deeper and you’ll see Bo Nix has hit a bit of a rookie wall with five interceptions over his last two games; the Colts cost themselves Sunday. Now Denver is hitting the road, on short rest, facing the best defense Nix has played in five weeks. L.A. must win to stay afloat, and while it does have run-game issues, Justin Herbert has enough with Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston to get it done.

Johnston will face the quality secondary that should be able to hold him under the four catch Mark. Especially considering that Patrick Surtan will be on him a significant portion of the game.

This is simply too high. Sure Nix had 8 attempts last week….but yikes before that. Median is less than 3…

Teams run the ball v the Chargers. They have an undersized front. Add in the Broncos are GREAT in the screen game and this makes sense.

The Chargers have scored exactly 17 points in three straight, and I don't see them getting to 23 against the league's No. 1 defense in EPA per play allowed. Remember, when the Chargers won 23-16 in Denver, Broncos shutdown corner Patrick Surtain left the game on the first defensive play with a concussion. Justin Herbert is playing on an injured ankle, he's trying out a new brace Thursday, and he doesn't have a strong run game to lean on anymore. Since JK Dobbins' injury, LA is averaging an NFL-high 8.4 yards to go on third down. Look for a 20-17 type of game and go Under on the Chargers' win total.

Quentin Johnston has been a reliable target for Justin Herbert this year after looking like a bust during a rough rookie season. That said, Johnston has had just a single game with over 51 receiving yards. He will now face what is the best defense in the NFL according to EPA, which also happens to feature the number one pass defense and PFF’s third best coverage unit. Making matter even more difficult: Johnston is likely going to see a lot of Patrick Surtain Jr., who is arguably the NFLs best cornerback. Surtain typically doesn’t travel to the slot where Chargers leading WR Ladd McConkey primarily lines up.

I’d bet this line up to over 34.5 receiving yards. Devaughn Vele has worked his way up the Broncos wide receiver depth chart to become their starting slot receiver. He’s cleared this line in 5/10 games, and lately has seen a route share of 60-70%. He’s coming off two duds, but this is a nice spot for the rookie. The Chargers employ a zone defense at the second highest rate, and Derwin James (big name, I know), is actually allowing 1.51 yards per slot coverage route (12th most in the NFL - all data per PFF).

Bo Nix is coming off a disappointing performance against the Colts but he did get to 33 pass attempts for the 10th time in 14 games. One of the outliers was the awful weather game against the Jets, and two others were blowout wins by Denver, which I don't expect here. With the Broncos' best running back sidelined, more should be put on Nix in this game, and I'll bet that falls more on his arm than his legs to get back over this number again, especially if the Chargers get out to a big lead like they did in the first meeting.

Nix began the year throwing 4 interceptions in his first 2 games. He then went on an impressive stretch, throwing just 2 picks over the following 10 games. However, it looks like his rookie woes have reared their ugly head again, with Nix throwing 5 INT’s in his last 2 games. His rushing prop has a direct correlation. Nix rushed for 20+ yards in 5/6 games in which he threw an interception. Considering his recent turnover struggles, I expect Nix to use his legs against a Chargers defense that ranks Top 10 in pass DVOA.

The Bolts' Kimani Vidal seems to be gaining the confidence of Jim Harbaugh as Vidal played a season-high 32 snaps on Sunday. Vidal also was the clear option as a receiver out of the backfield running 16 routes, while Gus Edwards and Hassan Haskins combined for three routes. The Broncos allow the fourth most receptions to running backs, averaging 5.29 per game. I'd rather do yards, though, since he obviously can top this on one catch.

Lil'Jordan -- I guarantee you his parents were Michael Jordan fans -- Humphrey has been the forgotten wideout on the Broncos of late with just one target and zero catches in the past two games, as he's now basically the No. 5 on the depth chart. In the first Bolts meeting, he had one catch for eight yards. Our model doesn't even list him on its DFS projections.

Denver games have been an old E-ticket ride at Disneyland the past few weeks, but this ability to pull out games by whatever magic necessary is a trait of the best overachievers. The Broncos also had a real excuse for the earlier 23-16 loss to the Bolts as star CB Pat Surtain went down on the first series, opening up the width of the field for Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense. The Bolts took advantage, but a look at the Charger body of work reveals real offensive issues, scoring barely 15 pg in the six losses. Plus, Surtain plays tonight, and Bo Nix, while not perfect, remains unperturbed, not afraid to keep firing way. Also note Denver's 10-2 spread run. Play Broncos

Justin Herbert is still dealing with a lingering ankle injury. He will be under duress against a Denver defense that has been top of the league in QB pressure rate all season, and ranks 3rd in sack rate (8.78%). The Chargers have scored 17 points in 3 consecutive games, and seem to be hitting a wall on offense. Denver’s secondary led by CB Patrick Surtain should limit explosive plays. Bo Nix and the Broncos offense could struggle here as well. The Chargers utilize a 2-high safety scheme using lots of Cover 4 looks, against which Bo Nix has struggled. The Broncos will now be without RB2 Jaleel McLaughlin, not helping their already inefficient run game. The defenses will be the best units on the field.

We witnessed a slow start from the Broncos last week and that's in large part due to some recent regression from Bo Nix. I expect the Broncos to come out conservatively on Thursday night and focus on their non-existent run game and then open it up later in the game to try and expose the Chargers banged up secondary. I think this leads to little offense early. With no Riley Moss for Denver I think we'll see the Chargers, at home, move the ball and score first in this one. There's volatility in a first quarter bet, but this is more of a fade of the Broncos early (similar to what we witnessed with the Broncos last week).

The Broncos don't trust rookie running back Audric Estime in pass protection; he has four targets this season. With Jaleel McLaughlin (quad) out Thursday, Javonte Williams in for a sizable snap share. Against a Chargers' defense that plays zone coverage 77.7 percent of the time (2nd-highest rate), look for Bo Nix to target Williams multiple times. LA allows the third-most targets (6.79 per game) to opposing running backs. Williams ranks second on the Broncos with 40 catches.

Broncos have won 4 of their last 6 on road, losing at Baltimore (no shame there) and barely at Arrowhead on a blocked chipshot FG. Chargers injuries have taken a toll and their defense is slipping. Their interior OL is a real problem. Bo Nix has turned it over more lately, but I expect a heavy Broncos presence in the LA crowd. Chargers are running out of steam. Run game fizzling. Denver will take away Ladd McConkey and see who else can win. Justin Herbert may be more hampered than we know. Broncos can win ugly, low-scoring games, the style the Chargers tend to play. LAC have lost 3 of 4 scoring just 17 points 3 in a row (64 points total last 4 games).

Gus Edwards has been extremely inefficient since joining the Chargers and has only hit this number in 1 of his last 5 games (note that JK Dobbins was injured in Week 12). Edwards is projected to get 10 carries against Denver's stout rush defense and I don't think he breaks one of those carries for more than 10 yards. I'll note that this 10.5 number is very low for a starting running back, but most starting running backs are more efficient than Edwards and starters are typically projected to get more than 10 carries. I also think we will see more Kimani Vidal touches moving forward as his snap share is rising.

This is a matter of one team feeling positive vibes and another feeling stuck in a negative molasses. The Chargers have lost three of four, albeit to really good teams, and Denver has won four straight and covered five straight. There's a tone set on a season for the Chargers that things have gone bad beginning with 32 rushing yards against Tampa Bay on Sunday. Let's face it, the Chargers gave up in the second half at home, 27-0. Denver's gone over 9-5 on the season including their last three and they've also gotten 11-3 against the spread which is the best in the NFL. What team is riding high and what team is sobbing? Broncos cover.

The Broncos blew out the Colts on Sunday but looked pretty bad on offense, with only 192 yards gained on 13 meaningful drives but scoring drives of 5, 15 and 35 yards as well as a defensive TD. The Chargers were blown out themselves but have struggled against good teams this year, which the Buccaneers are and the Broncos probably aren't. The Chargers dominated the first meeting, taking a 23-0 lead into the fourth quarter as Denver's first seven drives netted 63 yards. I'd like to say Bo Nix has improved greatly since then, but he didn't show it against Indy. Grab this while -2.5s are still available.

Early in the week but I'm not sure we can ask for a better price. The kid has not taken as good care of the ball the last two weeks, but Sean Payton is playing the long game with him and wants him to try to throw his way through the warts. He can live with it. Kid has hit this in 4 of the last 5 games and in all 4 AFC West games. Payton wants him attacking those teams in the division (avg 33 att/G vs AFCW). Chargers D is struggling, allowing this to hit in 4 of the last 6 games. Broncos run game remains problematic.

The last 10 times they’ve met at LA/San Diego, they’ve gone under 9 times. Overall, 8 of their last 9 total meetings are under 41 points. The Chargers AFC West games have totaled 36, 39, 27 and 32 points. Both offenses are in a bit of a funk and Chargers lack explosive elements in their pass game and run game. Big spot in essentially a road playoff game for Bo Nix, who reverted to rookie form last week. Justin Herbert is under in 9 of his last 13 games at home within the division. He’s gone under in 4 straight of those occasions and 6 of the last 7. They totaled 39 points in first meeting and 37 when they met in LA last year.