Went back and forth on this largely due to the absence of Riley Moss. With Josh Downs back for the Colts, that could create issues for the Broncos’ dominant defense. Ultimately, though, given the multiple looks that Denver can throw at Anthony Richardson – and neither team having a decided advantage coming off the bye week together – the home team gets the edge. Bo Nix playing a clean game will be key. Anthony Richardson has looked much better after his brief benching, but his wins are over the Jets and Patriots with TD-or-more losses in his other recent starts. He’s still completing just 47.4% of his passes.

Apparently more than a few still need convincing about the Broncos, who admittedly have won (and covered) some games in miraculous fashion this season. But that's the point with this Denver edition, which seems to have some magic about it.Three pick-sixes already this season, including two in the most-recent game (Monday, Dec. 2) vs. the Browns, are part of the narrative, while QB Bo Nix improves by the week running the offense. Note Denver is 9-2 vs. the spread since later September, with several comfortable win margins. This is the Colts' last chance to stay in the AFC wild card race, but inconsistency from QB Anthony Richardson makes Indy an unreliable recommendation. Play Broncos

Caesar’s. Trying to predict the workload share in the Broncos backfield has been tough this season, but Jaleel McLaughlin has easily been the best Denver back over the last two weeks. The speedster is coming off an 84 yard performance on 14 of the 22 total running back rush attempts. Against the Colts run defense that’s allowing the second most running back rush yards, I’d expect the Broncos to ride the hot hand with McLaughlin.

Indianapolis has reliably been one of the league's zone-heaviest coverage defenses this season. They've also struggled to get pressure on the quarterback, landing a 30.3% pass rush pressure rate, seventh-lowest on the season. This sets up Nix to complete a bunch of short passes, which he's been doing all year. As a bonus, the Broncos run game has struggled for the past month, and Nix himself has run much less in his past four games. Lastly, this is essentially a playoff game for the Broncos -- a win gives them a tiebreaker over the Colts and pads their lead over the few other AFC teams in contention. I wouldn't expect Sean Payton to leave this game to his suspect run game.

DraftKings. Nick Cross, the NFL’s fifth leading tackler, has cleared this line in 10 of 13 games. He gets a terrific matchup Sunday against the Broncos, who are allowing the fifth most tackles to opposing safeties (per PFF).

Anthony Richardson flashed some major upside in his rookie season and looked like he would eventually develop into a high end starter in the mold of Cam Newton. His sophomore campaign has been a much different story however and Richardson has really struggled and has even been benched at times for Joe Flacco. This looks like a spot where I expect Richardson to really struggle against a Denver defense that is 1st in EPA allowed per dropback and 2nd in Success Rate. I also expect the Colts to lean heavily on Jonathan Taylor and limit Richardson's drop backs as well.

Broncos backers can take comfort in two stats. Denver has downed all seven opponents outright who now are saddled with a losing record. The defense blitzes more frequently than all but one team, and Indy QB Anthony Richardson is shaky under such circumstances. His passer rating is 65.4, worst in the league under blitzes. The Broncos have knocked off the last three visitors to the Mile High City, each by at least two scores. QB Bo Nix has played his way up to second on the oddsboard for Rookie of the Year.

Bo Nix is throwing over 21 yards in the air way more than the average rookie. In fact, he's top 8 in that over the last 9 weeks. Sutton is his primary target when he goes deep, but the emergence of their young WRs is opening up more opportunities for Sutton. He has a catch of 32 yards or more in 4 of the last 6 games. He had a long of 23 in one of the other games and 19 in the other. He can find the holes in the Colts zone defense. Indy doesn't give up a ton of the deep balls but all we need is one.

Sean Payton is letting his rookie QB air it out and he isn't coaching him scared. He's playing the long game and pushing the ball down the field, even out of his own endzone. Nix is feasting on it and has 275+ passing yards in 4 of the last 6 games. Love him off a bye vs a secondary that is 23rd in opposing passer rating and allowing over 70% completions. Payton has been even more fearless in his play calling with his kid QB at home.

The Broncos come off a bye and get the Colts at home and the spread looks light to me. The Broncos have gone an NFL-best 10-3 against the spread but this spread says that these two teams are similar, equals, and that could be the furthest thing from the truth. The Colts have lost four of their last six and covered just one of their last five. The Colts have questions about their quarterback who doesn’t even throw 50% completions while the Broncos couldn't be happier with Bo Nix. On defense, the Broncos have the 8th-ranked squad allowing 315 yards per game while the Colts have the 29th-ranked defense allowing 379 per game. Broncos to cover.

Playoff game atmosphere for both teams and the reason why I like the Colts here is due to the fact that we've QB Anthony Richardson play lights out in close games this season. He's been a totally different player since regaining the starting QB role. Look for this game to be the coming out party for the Colts and their playoff chances.

The Denver Broncos are ranked second in net yards per play defense, eighth in yards per game defense, fourth in net yards per pass defense, second in red zone defense, sixth in run defense, and eighth in opponent passer rating. The Colts are ranked 23rd in net yards per play defense, 29th in yards per game defense, 27th in net yards per pass defense, 17th in red zone defense, 30th in run defense, and 23rd in opponent passer rating. Sean Payton wasn’t happy with the Broncos’ defensive effort, allowing 32 points at home before their BYE week. Another data point I like is a Dome Team playing outdoors in December. My betting model has the Broncos favored by 9 points.

Both teams out of their bye week. This seems a little low with how much better Bo Nix is playing under center than his second-year counterpart Anthony Richardson is -- at least as a passer (A-Rich completing just 47.4% of his throws). A win here all but locks up a wild-card spot for Denver as it sits seventh in the AFC and Indy is eighth (although Miami still might have a say in that No. 7 spot). I'm gonna take this early because I'm not sure a number below -200 is available for that long an it's not like we should have any late injuries worries with both teams rested.

The spread in this game has dropped with early action on the Colts, and I'm ready to hop in on the other side. The Broncos have a strong home-field advantage that could be even better against an indoor team in December, but this mostly boils down to not thinking Indy is very good. The Broncos have a great rush defense to put the game on Anthony Richardson's arm, which more often than not turns out to be a disaster for the Colts. The Broncos offense has looked great when not facing elite Baltimore and Kansas City teams on the road as Bo Nix has developed throughout the season. I have this line at Broncos -6 and don't think it reaches 3.