I like the matchup here for DK Metcalf against a Packers team that is weaker against outside WRs than slot WRs. Metcalf has been underwhelming with his yardage, but the targets have been there and with no Jaire Alexander, I expect him to be featured on Sunday Night Football.

I've been fading the Seahawks over the last few weeks and it hasn't served me well, but this bet is more of a play on the Packers as I think they are one of the best teams in the NFC. Now that Romeo Doubs is back I expect this offense to work more efficiently through the air and I think the defense is just good enough to win and cover against what I think will be an inconsistent Seahawks offense.

The Seahawks have won and covered their last four games in a row. The Packers have won three their last four covering the last three. The Packers have the No. 6 offense in the NFL at 376 yards per game and average 26.8 points a game. The Seahawks have a 27th-ranked rushing game at 95 yards per game and Kenneth Walker is out for the game. These guys have been linked together over the years with some amazing games. I'm going against the grain and taking the Packers to cover.

FanDuel. Since Jordan Love’s return from injury in Week 4, Kraft has cleared this line in 7/10 contests. While the Packers young wide receiver room will rotate amongst each other, Kraft is a mainstay on the field in passing downs, and actually leads the Packers in routes run this season. He gets a softer matchup against the Seahawks who allow the tenth most receiving yards to tight-ends per game (58.7). I love the matchup for Kraft, especially compared to the Packers’ WRs.

Under Matt LaFleur, the Packers are 18-3 in December, even after losing a heartbreaker in Detroit 10 days ago. Jordan Love has gone three straight games without throwing an interception. Romeo Doubs' return gives Love yet another weapon, while Seattle will be without top running back Kenneth Walker.

Smith-Njigba has been on an absolute tear over the past couple months, clearing this receiving yards total in 6 consecutive games. JSN has also been highly efficient, catching 38 receptions on 47 targets for nearly 600 receiving yards over that same 6-game span. The Packers remain without their most talented CB Jaire Alexander, and will also be missing another starting DB Javon Bullard. JSN should continue succeeding in this matchup.

The Packers have been vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks, and Geno Smith is mobile enough to clear this low number. Green Bay ranks fifth in pressure rate when blitzing, which could lead Smith to take off. He also has tended to run more in tight games or trailing game scripts.

The Seahawks' defense has been elite lately, but not against tight ends. Over the past three games, Seattle has given up 257 yards to opposing tight ends. Tucker Kraft has 119 receiving yards over the past two games and should clear this reasonable number Sunday night.

Green Bay’s offense has been on a roll over the past 3 games, but I think they may struggle in Seattle. This Seahawks secondary has proven to be top-tier behind DB’s Riq Woolen, Devon Witherspoon and Julian Love. Mike Macdonald’s defense is healthy, and also much improved against the run since adding LB Ernest Jones. Green Bay has gone run-heavy recently, with Josh Jacobs getting 18+ carries in 5 of their last 6 games. Similarly, the Seahawks found success on the ground with RB Zach Charbonnet last week. It looks as if Green Bay will get back LB Edgerrin Cooper & CB Corey Ballentine. I see this being a competitive game that stays under the total.

Been eyeing the Packers all week. You definitely want to get it at -2.5 (conversely, wait for +3 if taking the Seahawks with the sharps). Green Bay proved its worth last week against Detroit, and all its losses this season have come to some of the best teams in the NFL. Seattle has impressed with significant defensive improvements of late, but it’s beaten some downtrodden teams and an Arizona squad it simply dominates. This is a step up in class. Geno Smith struggles when pressured, and the Pack should be able to knock him off his spot frequently. Jordan Love can also be mistake prone, but he’s calmed down recently, and the more complete team is off extended rest having played last Thursday.

Props to the Seahawks for winning their last four games, all as underdogs. Yet the roll call of victims -- the battered 49ers, Jets and Cardinals (twice) -- removes from sheen from the streak. Green Bay has dropped four all season, all against formidable foes -- Eagles, Vikings, Lions twice. The Packers tend to get warmed up in December, having gone 16-0 SU under coach Matt LaFleur prior to last season. Seattle's defense is largely responsible for its streak and must be firing on all cylinders here since the offense will miss main RB Kenneth Walker Jr.

With Kenneth Walker out again, I see no reason barring injury or blowout that Zach Charbonnet can't approach 20 carries as he did last week with 22 in a win at Arizona when Walker also sat out. It's typically blah Seattle weather, so that would presume a bit more of a run-heavy offense even if Green Bay is pretty good defending it. Our model has Charbonnet with 17 carries and NumberFire with 18.8.

The way this is getting priced across the board, I'm not sure how much longer it is available and I do believe the Pakcer are a FG better. GB has lost to elite teams by small margins. Outside of the brutal NFC North they are 6-3 ATS covering by 8 PPG. Matt LaFleur is 10-5 ATS on road in prime time. Seattle is just 2-4-1 ATS at home and Geno Smith struggles in these spots. Seahawks riding a 4 game streak but this is a step up in competition. Hawks just 3-3-2 ATS outside the NFC West. Jordan Love doing much better job protecting the football these days.

Geno Smith is a double agent at home. He protects the ball better on the road. Smith has thrown a pick in 4 straight at home (7 totals picks in that span). Smith has thrown an INT in 6 of the last 7 home games. Since the start of last season, Smith has thrown a pick in 10 of 14 home games (15 total INTs). The Packers have 12 picks with a knack for getting them at critical times.

Seattle's defense gives them a leg up because of their ability to slow down the run game and also communicate on the back end. They are playing some of their best ball of the season. Look for them to be able to minimize what the Packers want to do offensively and eek out a win.

Matt LaFleur is 9-3 to the over in his last 12 spots as a road favorite. Jordan Love is 5-1 to the over in his last 6 prime time road starts. Packers games outside the NFC North have averaged 47 PPG. Seattle is 5-3 to the over in games played outside the NFC West. Geno Smith is over in 7 of his last 11 home starts.

The Packers have only lost to the Lions, Vikings and Eagles this season, and yet I think it's the Seahawks getting disrespected here. The team has played at a high level since the bye while getting healthier on both sides of the ball. The Seattle offense has 400+ yards in three straight while the Packers defense has looked vulnerable against anyone not named Brandon Allen since their bye. The Packers offense has been held under 300 in three straight while the Seahawks defense has been fantastic, especially up front. I like the value on the full 3 here.