For me, this pick comes down to two things: Pittsburgh having arguably the best defense in the league, and the fact that the Steelers are coming off a bye. Mike Tomlin is 13-4 coming off a bye week, and the Steelers are coming off three straight dominant wins. I really like Jayden Daniels, but the Steelers are in a better place right now.

Losing the full 3 here hurts given we’re siding with the Steelers, but there’s a great chance Pittsburgh wins straight up, so it’s worth taking whatever points you can get. The Commanders have been great behind Jayden Daniels, but even with Austin Ekeler playing well, they have struggled in the red zone with Brian Robinson Jr. sidelined. Washington’s run defense is atrocious, and we’ve seen Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren perform even better than they already were under Russell Wilson, who is now keeping teams honest offensively. Mike Tomlin's crew is going to test Daniels, and the Steelers also set up as a great teaser leg this week.

The last time we watched George Pickens on Monday Night Football against the Giants, we watched him have not one, but two touchdowns called back. Pickens is a serious positive regression touchdown candidate. He is tied for the 5th most red zone targets among wide receivers (11), yet only has one red zone touchdown. We know Pickens is famous for catching the long ball too, which his QB QB Russell Wilson excels at. His matchup isn't scary either. The Commanders are tied for 4th in touchdowns given up to wide receivers this season (10). I like Pickens to find the endzone Sunday.

Pittsburgh is off a bye, Mike Tomlin treats rookie quarterbacks like Swiffer XL wet wipes (and is 4-0 SU/ATS in past four off a bye), and no Brian Robinson or trade acquisition Marshon Lattimore for the Ders. As I said in the premium newsletter, am I starting to worry the Bears got it wrong with Caleb Williams over Jayden Daniels? Well let's put it this way. In the original WarGames movie, DefCon 1 is defined by the WOPR as imminent thermonuclear war, while DefCon 5 is chess and maybe a snuggle with Ally Sheedy. We are at DefCon 3.5.

Marshon Lattimore won't play in this game after being acquired by Washington at the deadline, and the Steelers offense can continue to have success after racking up 400+ yards in both games with Russell Wilson at QB. The Washington offensive line hasn't been tested too much by opposing pass rushes this year, but that's going to change in this matchup and the team is dealing with injuries at both tackle spots. I don't necessarily disagree with this line much, but I like the matchup for the Steelers to come out with the win.

Since Russell Wilson took over as Pittsburgh's starting QB, Harris has rushed 19+ times in both games for 100+ yards each time. Against a Washington defense surrendering the fourth-most rush yards per game, I think this total is too at least ten yards too low. Also, consider the fact that Pittsburgh will likely try to play ball control to keep the Commanders' potent offense off the field.

The Steelers under coach Mike Tomlin are 13-4 outright coming out of a bye, with seven victories in a row. So, receiving points is a bonus. They are recent big winners without taking the field, having acquired WR Mike Williams and pass rusher Preston Smith via trades. Before the break, they swept the last three games with a vastly improved offense that averaged 31 ppg during the stretch. The Commanders started white-hot but seem to be cooling, with recent wins over the mediocre Bears and the less-than-mediocre Giants by a combined eight points.

The Steelers are healthy coming off their bye. But as great as T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and Minkah Fitzpatrick are, Pittsburgh hasn't faced a quarterback like Jayden Daniels. His elusiveness and rushing ability somewhat negates the Steelers' pass rush. Washington is averaging 6.5 yards per play at home, and 6.5 yards per play overall in its past three games. Its defense has jelled over the past six weeks, with Dante Fowler Jr. and Dorrance Armstrong developing into elite edge rushers. It's unclear if trade deadline acquisition Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) will play. His presence would be huge as the Commanders try to limit George Pickens. Even if he doesn't play, I like the surprising Commanders to win by at least a field goal.

Mike Tomlin will want to attack the interior of a defense that is 30th in yards/carry allowed. Setting up play action will be imperative and Harris is in the best form of his career. It isn't even close. He is averaging 107.3 yards/G over the last 3 games and, with the OL still a little shaky, this is the best way to keep Jayden Daniels off the field. Harris has 40 carries the last 2 games and is averaging 15/G since Russell Wilson took over at QB. Jaylen Warren will get his carries too, but between short-yardage and early downs, I project 20 carries for Harris.

The Steelers defense is still very very good. And they generally don’t turn it over in their own end or give you easy pick six type touchdowns. As 25 and 26 are generally dead numbers I don’t see Wash getting to 27. Under

This will be the Commanders' 10th consecutive game while the Steelers are coming off their BYE week. Pittsburgh boasts a record of 15-5 straight up and has won seven games in a row when given two weeks to prepare of late. The Steelers rank first in red-zone defense, fourth in run defense, and fifth in opponent passer rating. Washington ranks 28th in red-zone defense, 28th in run defense, and 28th in opponent passer rating. Washington has played the 25th most manageable schedule, while Pittsburgh is ranked 26th. The Commanders have not committed a turnover in four straight games. These teams are major fade bait as chalk. According to my model, Washington should be favored by less than one point.

Mike Tomlin is 24-5 all time vs rookie QBs, and while he lost twice last year, he has a much better team in '24. Steelers healthy off a bye, and Commandos due for a setback getting some crazy breaks lately. I don't see the going 3-1 vs the AFC North. WSH can't stop the run and Steelers have it cranked up. Russell Wilson doesn't turn it over and Steelers have best RZ D and won't allow splash TDs that Jayden Daniels feasting on. Tomlin 7-3 SU last 10 as road dog. PIT 8-4 ATS on road since '23, 14-7 since '22. More experienced team can win a tight, low-scoring game on the road.