No Brian Robinson today, so that should mean more touches overall for Ekeler, who has only topped this three times in 2024 but once was with four catches against Baltimore when Robinson was also out.

To clear a mid-level total, both teams must contribute to the scoring. There are no worries about Washington with dynamic QB Jayden Daniels. The Giants are another matter. Their offense has outscored just one other in the league. It has operated all season with a home-field disadvantage, having scored 7.8 ppg while going 0-4. QB Daniel Jones' combined passing and rushing TDs in the past six home dates: zero. Maybe New York can borrow from the defensive game plan employed last Sunday by the Bears. The Commanders' lone touchdown came via a Hail Mary pass on the game's final snap.

These teams had trouble finishing drives and ended up combining for 38 points on the first meeting. Commanders rely a lot on splash plays for TDs, outside the RZ, and not sure that will be there for them today. I also expect a heavy dose of the run for both teams. NYG games are under this total in 7 of 8 games. Giants home games 10-2 to the under since '23, averaging 32.17 points, lowest in NFL. Jayden Daniels still dealing with rib injury and NYG pass rush is elite. This series is 7-3-1 to the under since '19. Daniel Jones is 19-4-1 to the under at home and Commanders D has been getting better by the week.

We are backing up our ML play with a suggestion of taking the points in a game we believe will be decided on a short key number either way.

Great spot to play a Commanders team that may have created doubt in some minds given they barely edged the Giants in their first meeting and barely snuck past the Bears last week. Washington’s defense continues to trend upward under Dan Quinn; it’s allowed 12.3 points per game over the last four against teams not named the Ravens. The offense is clearly far better than what New York is fielding, too. Just consider the matchup: Jayden Daniels vs. Daniel Jones. Does much more need to be said? We have seen the Giants struggle against quality offenses and defenses. They have been outscored 71-28 over the last three weeks (14.3 points per game). I wouldn’t be surprised if this winds up a double-digit win for Washington.

Austin Seibert drilled seven field goals in the last meeting with the Giants, and he's made at least two in six of seven games this season. Washington should run wild against a Giants team giving up an NFL-high 5.4 yards per carry, putting Seibert in position to cash this prop.

The tough-luck Giants have dropped three straight since their road upset of the Seahawks. But had a couple breaks fallen their way, this self-destructive club could at least be at .500. The reborn Commanders keep finding ways to win, the mostly unlikely of which was last week's walk-off Hail Mary against the Bears. At some point their good fortune is due for regression, and this is that time. New York outplayed Washington in their first meeting, sacked Jayden Daniels five times and held the Commanders out of the end zone. Look for an inspired Giants club to finish the job this time.

Malik Nabers has been targeted an astonishing 66 times over his last 5 games. His efficiency has been down thanks to secondaries giving him a ton of attention, but the target share and air yard share remains too significant to ignore. I don't expect Tyrone Tracy to play in this game, but either way, I think the Giants will need to pass in order to succeed offensively and Nabers is set to get another huge allotment of targets. In his first matchup versus Washington (Week 2) Nabers caught 10 of 17 targets for 127 yards. We only need to get about half of that in this matchup.

Despite not playing in Week 1, Seibert has made 23 field goals and is tied with Chris Boswell for the league lead. He is over this 1.5 total in 6 of 7 games, including seven made FGs vs. New York in Week 2. I'll predict a three field goal day in Week 9 for the Commanders' placekicker.

Despite being a rookie WR and having subpar QB play (putting it lightly..) while playing on an anemic passing offense, Malik Nabers has already proven to be one of the NFL's best WRs. You could even make an argument that Nabers has the best target profile of any WR and it is fair to wonder how good his numbers would be with even average QB play. Nabers ranks in the top 98 percentile in target share, air yard share, WOPR, Open Score, Targets/Route, Expected YPPR. Now he faces a Commanders pass defense that has improved as the season has progressed but still ranks in the bottom 10 in nearly every defensive passing metric. This line should be at least 74.5 in my opinion.

This hit in 4 of his last 5 games, including vs the Panthers in just one series due to a rib injury. The Giants allow 5.9/carry to QBs - 28th in the NFL. They cannot defend the run in a traditional sense, let alone when torqued by the need to defend a premier rushing QB threat as well. I was surprised how much Daniels ran against Chicago last week after barely practicing due to the rib injury, and his instincts are so great and he is so elusive, I see him leaning into that in a tight division game. Also not sure the young Giants DL will be disciplined enough with mush rush to hem him in; you get behind him and he's gone.

These two teams played a weird 21-18 game in Week 2, with the team scoring 21 (Commanders) kicking seven FGs and not punting while the team scoring 18 (Giants) had three TDs and no kicker. That game should've flown over 43, and I expect this one gets there this time. Jayden Daniels should be healthier after another FG fest last week, while the Giants offense was able to score 18 (they love that number) against a great pass rush without Andrew Thomas at left tackle. 24-20 shouldn't be an issue for these offenses, and a 30-point effort from Washington is certainly on the table.

The Giants outplayed Washington in their 21-18 loss in Week 2 and probably would have won if they had had a healthy kicker. A lot has changed since then. The Commanders' pass rush has surged and generated pressure on 51.6 percent of Caleb Williams' dropbacks last week. That spells trouble for the G-Men, who remain without LT Andrew Thomas and just gave up a 51.2 percent pressure rate in Pittsburgh. Playing at MetLife Stadium has been a disaster for the Giants, who have gone 0-4 while scoring a total of 31 points. Jayden Daniels has thrown two interceptions all season and should have another huge game, prompting Giants fans to wonder what might have been if the team hadn't signed Daniel Jones through 2026.

This offense has been exciting for the Commanders behind rookie QB Jayden Daniels. Despite not being 100%, he was productive enough last week vs Chicago. I was more impressed with the Commanders defense and that will be the reason why they cover vs the Giants.

The Commanders are 6-1-1 ATS, often covering quite easily, They are 8-4-1 ATS on the road since the start of '23. They only beat NYG by 3 points in their first meeting, but held the ball for over 37 mins, outgained them by 121 yards and ran for 215 yards. Giants are beat up on short rest, and very limited offensively. They can't stop the run, allowing an NFL-worst 6.2/carry the last 4 weeks. WSH defense has improved greatly from last year and from week to week. Jayden Daniels continues to dazzle, while Daniel Jones is 3-7 ATS in his last 10 at home (they held the Giants to 304 net yards). Every Giants loss has been by 5+, except for the NYG game.