There is some hesitancy to siding with the Lions in this spot given they will be playing their first outdoor game of the season in Week 9, an NFL first. The weather is also nasty. Still, Detroit is not only the better, more-complete team, it has shown much greater consistency in all phases. We’ve backed the Packers the last two weeks and been crushed by them failing to cover by a *combined* 1 point. In both cases, Green Bay was up solidly but allowed opponents to score late fourth-quarter points. Jordan Love’s injured groin could flare up at any time, and with this spread under a field goal, Detroit is the right side as I don’t see Green Bay keeping pace with Jaire Alexander out.

The Lions lead the NFL in points scored per game (33.4), while the Packers rank sixth (27.0). Both teams are solid on the defensive side of the ball, but this is a game I expect to have some offensive fireworks. I believe this line should have been set at 50+. Getting it at 47.5 is a nice value.

The Lions enter this matchup as the top-ranked offense in the NFL, averaging 33.4 points per game. In their last four games, the Lions have scored 172 total points (43 ppg), and there's no reason to believe they will slow down on Sunday. Green Bay cornerback Jaire Alexander is banged up, and Detroit has weapons all over the field. I expect another 27+ points from the Lions here.

While the weather might not be ideal for a 300-yard game or the like, the Lions are terrific against the run but allow the sixth-most passing yards per game -- so it may be a pass-heavy day for Jordan Love. Our AI has him at around 250 yards. Really the only concern to me is that he tweaks his groin injury and has to leave. Why I might come back and play Under Love 4.5 rushing yards as Love likely will be a statue in the pocket.

Jahmyr Gibbs has had a rush of 16 or more yards in all but two games this season. I'm following the trend here in a likely positive game script for the Lions.

The Lions have won and covered six of their seven games this season and have gone on a streak of winning their last five. They've been dominating. They scored 52 points against the Titans last week and only needed 85 yards from Jared Goff to secure the win. The Lions have been very careful with the ball turning the ball over only five times and the margin is second in the NFL at plus-10. The reason I don't like the Packers is they turn the ball over too much. They have 12 turnovers so far which only four teams have more in the NFL. The Lions beat the Packers four straight times before losing to them last November. Lions cover this game.

Jordan Love is expected to play in this game despite a groin injury, and as a result I believe this line is way off. While the Lions look like the best team in the NFC, the Packers haven't been far behind, and considering their excellent home-field advantage I think you can make a case they should be favored here with Love at QB. The Packers defense is eighth in yards per rush allowed, and I like their ability to generate takeaways against Jared Goff outdoors. I think we're getting a bit of an inflated rating in the market for Detroit based on recent results.

Pretty darn good price considering Detroit's David Montgomery has scored in six of seven games and is third in the league with seven rushing touchdowns. It also looks like it will be rainy, which in theory might mean fewer Jared Goff passes in the red zone. Montgomery has 10 rush attempts resulting in five TDs when inside the opponents' 5. Those attempts rank fourth in the league.

If Jordan Love is playing, this is very likely hitting. But I'm not sure he will, so a nibble for now as it still could well hit with Malik Willis under center as Matt LaFleur has actually turned him into an NFL quarterback.

There's a lot to like here. LaPorta has been over this number in 3 of his past 4 games, including a matchup he had one catch for a 52-yard touchdown. I really like that he'll play without teammate Jameson Williams again, and no one else in the Lions passing game really stepped up last week besides LaPorta, who had a 35.3% target per route run rate. It helps that Green Bay allows the eighth-highest completion rate to tight ends on the fifth-most targets per game, and for 10 yards per catch, which is right on average. Packers safety Evan Williams being out is an added bonus.

Jordan Love: Will he or won't he (play)? Doesn't matter here. The Lions have swept their last five outings, ATS and SU, while averaging nearly 40 ppg. The QB could be limited by a groin injury if he takes the field, and the Packers might not be able to keep pace with the explosive offense on the other side. Green Bay relies on turnovers, scoring the most points in the league following them. The Packers cannot count on a continuance; Detroit has committed just one during the streak. With blazing teams such as Detroit's, it's wise to ride them until they run out of steam.

David Montgomery has been beat up lately and has averaged well under 4.0/carry the last two weeks; Gibbs has a run of 6 straight games averaging over 5/carry, despite a growing workload. Hmm. He has 78 rushing yards or more in 5 of the last 6 games, and had 63 in another. He averaged 5/carry vs the Pack last season, and especially on the road, outdoors, Dan Campbell likes to emphasize the run game (and GB is 2nd in NFL in INT% and Jared Goff has been awesome but not throwing for any volume lately). I see both backs getting ample opportunity here, and Gibbs is so explosive he will tear off a few longer ones to push us over. I like 80+in alt markets

Montgomery finally didnt score a TD in Week 7, breaking an epic run of 8 straight regular-season games doing so since middle of last season. This was going off way below -200, but he would have quite likely scored in that game, too, if not for missing several series with injuries. Last week Montgomery hit paydirt quickly again (and threw a TD pass) despite his lowest touches (10) in a year with starters resting much of a blowout win over TEN. Scored 4 times in 2 games vs GB last year, including a hat trick in one. Remains a tone setter early and drive finisher.

I don’t trust Jared Goff outdoors to be the same guy. Plus, I don’t think Jordan Love plays for Green Bay and I’m not a Willis guy. Thus this total is simply too high…..go under.

Lions are 7-3 ATS vs GB since 2019, and even in game they lost to them in DET last year, they rolled up 464 yards and lost due to bad breaks and 3 Jared Goff fumbles. Goff has 2+ TD passes in 4 of 6 vs GB, Lions rolled over 400 yards in both games last year. 6-1 ATS this year, covering by 9.4 points (2nd in NFL). Jordan Love is beat up, Packers offense hasn't really gotten going and Lions offense is roaring home or road. DET 15-5 ATS on road since 2022 and 10-2 ATS on road since '23 (8-2 ATS as road favorite). Basically got a bye last week with that game over vs TEN after one quarter. Their OL is dominating.

I like the value of the home dog, as everyone will be on the Detroit Lions in this spot. Jordan Love is expected to play, so this line is heading to a flat 3 points. I think this is a game where the Lions will miss Edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson. Jared Goff outdoors is much different than Goff indoors. I made this line Detroit minus two. Take the points.