The 49ers are crazy injured. With Deebo Samuel battling pneumonia, it’s tough to know how many snaps he’ll get. The Cowboys are a shell of the balanced team that thrived in recent seasons, but they still have offensive talent and a much-needed rest edge with a serious need for defensive improvement. San Francisco has allowed 24+ points in three of its last four. Dallas got destroyed by Detroit, but it's slowed teams with limited personnel. With Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings out, George Kittle recovering and an inefficient Anders Carlson, the Niners are indeed limited. Give me the Cowboys. I'd absolutely buy this up to +6 (-110 or -115), and there is teaser value paired with the Steelers taking Dallas through 6, 7, 10.

The Cowboys are coming off a bye and are facing a solid rush defense. Whether Dowdle plays or not (downgraded to questionable at approximately 6:00 pm EST), the Cowboys are likely to only have success through the air. I like that the Cowboys move Lamb all over the formation and that he's averaging 10+ targets over his last three games. In what feels like a must win for the Cowboys, they must utilize their best player early and often.

I am betting 1 unit on nearly every primetime Under this season (unless not listed). Although the Cowboys defense has struggled to get stops, I expect them to play hard this week. They are healthier coming out of the bye week, and had 2 weeks to listen to everyone call them "soft" following a historically embarrassing 47-9 home loss. The 49ers receiver room is in shambles, so look for them to go run heavy behind RB Jordan Mason. The Cowboys ground attack has been almost non-existent, so they will have to beat a 49ers secondary that ranks #3 in overall pass defense. Put it all together, and I think we see a lower scoring affair than you'd typically expect from these NFC powerhouses.

49ers star WR Deebo Samuel will play this Sunday, contrary to most expectations. Samuel has been recovering from pneumonia, and played just four snaps last week against Kansas City. Deebo ended up spending two nights in the hospital to have fluid drained from his lungs. Samuel participated in the 49ers Thursday & Friday practices in a limited capacity. However, I'm not sure if he'll be in game shape already. Pneumonia is no joke. Samuel has superhuman toughness, but he may be more of a decoy than a primary target here. Samuel is 3-3 against this line so far this season as is. He could burn us with a couple big plays, but considering his recent illness I'll fade Deebo in this spot.

Teams are running the ball 50.5 percent of the time against Dallas' weak run defense. That's the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. Given the injuries to 49ers' receivers, it would make sense for San Fran to roll out a run-heavy attack. That's Kyle Shanahan's specialty. Look for Purdy to stay Under 31.5 pass attempts on Sunday Night Football.

This is a usage play. With Brandin Cooks out for most of the season, Jalen Tolbert has gone over 4 of his last 5 with a 55.6 per game average. The target CeeDee Lamb 10+ times strategy won’t work vs SF, and the bye week had to be 100% focused on WR route running and chemistry with Dak Prescott. The Sportsline Model makes the number 47.

It's hard to back Dallas at this point, and I don't have a ton of faith in Dak Prescott or Mike McCarthy. What I do like about the Cowboys here, though, is the fact that they are coming off a bye, and they will be facing a seriously depleted 49ers teams. I would set this line at +3, so getting to +5.5 is a nice value. I see this game being decided by a field goal in either direction.

Purdy already has clipped this total 4 times this season. Although he is expected to have some help with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle expected to play, Purdy should still use his legs to make plays and clip this modest number again.

I gave full analysis on why I'm taking Cowboys +4.5 (see below), and I'm going to take a .5 unit shot on the ML as well. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is 18-6 ATS when playing on extended rest in his career. The bye week was huge for Dallas. This is going to be a competitive game that the Cowboys will have a chance to win.

After a 47-9 loss to the Lions (their worst home defeat in franchise history) the Cowboys had the chance to regroup with a much-needed bye week. This team has been called "soft" by the media for weeks now, so I'm expecting Dallas to show some fight here. They have gotten slightly healthier, which is the real advantage in this matchup. The 49ers offense is decimated with inury. Brandon Aiyuk is done for the season, Deebo Samuel is recovering from pneumonia, Jauan Jennings has been ruled out, and TE George Kittle is 'questionable' with a foot issue. I'm not sure RB Jordan Mason and this strong Niners O-line is worth 4.5 points. I'm backing Dallas to play competitively against this weakened version of the 49ers.

Injuries to multiple key players on both sides make this a tough game to figure out, but I'm encouraged by Deebo Samuel and George Kittle being able to practice Thursday and Friday before being deemed questionable. If even one of those guys play, it'll make things easier for Brock Purdy in the passing attack, but the 49ers should really focus on running the ball down the throats of a Cowboys defense that has allowed 180+ rushing yards in half its games. With Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland still out, I like the potential for the 49ers offense here, and I really like the coaching edge we'll have in this game with the 49ers.

We're seeing a remarkable change from the Dallas Cowboys of the recent past where they dominated at home but now we've seen a streak of the Cowboys winning four straight on the road and losing four straight at home. The 49ers won the first two at home but have lost their last two to the Cardinals and the Chiefs. It makes their first two home wins look questionable beating the Jets and the Patriots who are a combined 3-11. The Cowboys problem is they allow 28 points per game but most of that's at home. I got questions about the 49ers last two games at home with Brock Purdy having one touchdown and five interceptions. I think the Cowboys can expand upon that. Cowboys cover.

The line is moving down as San Francisco is dealing with a lot of injuries on both sides of the ball. Dallas is 3-0 on the road thus far despite struggling overall this season. The 49ers have a +0.3 point differential over their last three games, dealing with injuries, as compared to Dallas owning +8 point differential on the road. With limited availability with their receivers, the 49ers will look to rely heavily on the run game and defense, but Dallas is holding opponents to 70.3 rushing yards on the road, second-best in the league.

Kyle Shanahan is going to pound the ball on the ground and get old school, with his QB in a slump and lacking his top weapons in the pass game. he isn't afraid to feed this kid 20+ times and he's among league leaders at 5.2/carry and this is a week for volume. Dallas is 32nd in EPA vs the run, they are easily pushed around up front and the 49ers can't get cute here and lose another game. They ran the ball 40 times when these teams met last year and could run it 50 in this one. Mason is the best of their current bunch of backs by far. I am playing him 100+ in alt markets.

The Cowboys run defense is a total joke and the 49ers have the scheme and tackles to rip them up on the ground. They will use the FB a ton and some extra OL too and finish drives on the ground with Brock Purdy struggling in the RZ and turning it over. No reason to get cute here. Mason is the lead back and drive finisher and Cowboys have allowed 10 rushing TDs, second most in the NFL. They lack space eaters to take away inside runs and Mason can kill you in outside zone, too, with the one cut stuff.

The 49ers are beat up, but don't face a top D this week. And they still have Trent Williams. And they can gut the Cowboys on the ground and Brock Purdy won't be under the kind of heat he was Sun. Cowboys inability to run the ball will create problems for Dak Prescott against this pass rush. Kyle Shanahan must scheme guys open, and this still should be a coaching mismatch. Cowboys failing to cover on average by 7.5 points - way overpriced - and a bye can only help so much. San Fran won 42-10 last year, running the ball 41 times. All we need a win by a TD and missed extra point this time. SF will control clock and frustrate.