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Sun, Oct 135:00 pm UTCGillette Stadium
52 F
Track OnCBS Sports
Houston
Texans
HOU
Last 5 ATS
W/L10-7
ATS7-10
O/U6-11-0
FINAL SCORE
41
-
21
New England
Patriots
NE
Last 5 ATS
W/L4-13
ATS7-9
O/U11-6-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
Last 5 ATS
10-7
Win /Loss
4-13
7-10
Spread
7-9
6-11-0
Over / Under
11-6-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER

Simulation Picks

SPREAD
HOU @ NE
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MONEYLINE
HOU @ NE
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OVER / UNDER
HOU @ NE
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79%
PUBLIC
21%
MONEY
87%
PUBLIC
13%
MONEY
Over84%
PUBLIC
Under16%
Over
MONEY
Under

Understanding Public and Money

Think of 'Public' as the percentage of people betting on each side and 'Money' as how much money is being bet. When there's a big difference between the 'Public' and 'Money' data, it usually means that the more serious bettors (referred to as 'Sharp Money') are favoring a particular side.

Expert Picks

Point SpreadHouston -6.5 -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+1016.5
32-20-4 in Last 56 NFL ATS Picks
+340
4-1 in Last 5 NE ATS Picks
Jimmie's Analysis:

This one is simple: Drake Maye is talented, but raw, and I think the Houston Texans' defense will give him a harsh 'Welcome to the NFL' moment on Sunday. Texans win by 10.

Pick Made: Oct 13, 4:16 pm UTC on Caesars
Point SpreadHouston -6.5 -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+2577
84-53-4 in Last 141 NFL ATS Picks
+1177
25-12-2 in Last 39 NE ATS Picks
Adam's Analysis:

Outside of losing Nico Collins, the Texans will have the rest of their offensive playmakers back with Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce both suiting up behind C.J. Stroud. Houston found itself last week against a much better Buffalo team, while New England is turning the page to rookie Drake Maye behind a lacking offensive line with a dearth of playmakers to help him. Not sure I want a new QB making his first start against a DeMeco Ryans defense that already has plenty of experience with mobile signal callers this season. The Patriots are a straight up bad team that has been beaten handily by worse offenses. This is a significant spread, and rookie QBs have surprised this season, but others have better surrounding casts.

Pick Made: Oct 13, 3:19 pm UTC on Caesars
Avatar
Total CarriesDrake Maye Over 3.5 Total Carries -138
WIN
Unit1.5
+1150
64-45 in Last 109 NFL Player Props Picks
Erik's Analysis:

When Forrest Gump was in college, he was a runner. Same thing for Drake May. He will use his legs at least four times in this game. Love this play.

Pick Made: Oct 12, 9:34 pm UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Total Rushing YardsDrake Maye Over 27.5 Total Rushing Yards -118
WIN
Unit1.0
+147
11-8 in Last 19 NFL Player Props Picks
Thomas's Analysis:

Drake Maye gets his first start on Sunday. An underrated part of Maye's game is his ability to run the football. Last season at North Carolina, Maye averaged 9.5 rushing attempts per game. The Patriots have the worst offensive line in the NFL, so I expect Maye to use his legs out of necessity. Houston has faced three mobile quarterbacks and allowed over 40 rushing yards each time - Josh Allen (54), Caleb Williams (44) and Anthony Richardson (56). Maye's rushing total feels a little low here.

Pick Made: Oct 12, 7:00 pm UTC on BetMGM
Avatar
Total ReceptionsDalton Schultz Over 3.5 Total Receptions +120
WIN
Unit0.5
+192
10-7 in Last 17 NFL Player Props Picks
Dave's Analysis:

Schultz was over this total last week for the first time -- and it's not coincidental that it happened in the same game where Nico Collins got hurt. Case in point: Schultz had a 19% target share last week. Schultz also has a career catch rate of 69%, so if Stroud throws 30 times, Schultz should see six targets, and based on his career numbers then four grabs are in play. For what it's worth, the Patriots have allowed at least four catches to a tight end in three straight games. It's worth a sprinkle, especially at plus-money.

Pick Made: Oct 11, 9:00 pm UTC on BetMGM
Avatar
Total Passing AttemptsDrake Maye Over 28.5 Total Passing Attempts -114
WIN
Unit1.0
+192
10-7 in Last 17 NFL Player Props Picks
Dave's Analysis:

With Rhamondre Stevenson out, the Patriots should be compelled into throwing more. And what better time for that than in their prized rookie's very first start? This is a team that threw the ball 30-plus times in each of its past two games anyway, so dialing up throws isn't rare for them. And game script should also favor Maye throwing a bunch because the Texans, even without Nico Collins, figure to put points up and force the Patriots to chase. In fact, Houston has seen 30-plus pass attempts in 3 of its past 4 games, and 28 pass attempts in each of those four. The Patriots should *want* to see what Maye can do, so let's capitalize on that.

Pick Made: Oct 11, 8:48 pm UTC on Caesars
Avatar
Total Receiving YardsTank Dell Over 56.5 Total Receiving Yards -111
WIN
Unit1.5
+330.5
16-11 in Last 27 NFL Player Props Picks
Eric's Analysis:

The 29% target share that Nico Collins was receiving has to go somewhere and with top cornerback Christian Gonzalez likely on Stefon Diggs, Dell should see plenty of targets coming his way. Over the last two weeks, he's caught nine passes for 100 yards combined and is showing signs of breaking out of his slump to begin 2024. I feel strongly about him topping 60 yards this week and potentially laddering this up to 80.

Pick Made: Oct 11, 2:52 pm UTC on BetMGM
Point SpreadHouston -7 -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+1879
45-24-1 in Last 70 NFL Picks
+1779
44-24-1 in Last 69 NFL ATS Picks
+1234
19-6 in Last 25 NE ATS Picks
Emory's Analysis:

This is a bad week for a rookie QB to get his first start, but so is life in the NFL. I would expect the Patriots defense to play their best game and keep this one closer for a few quarters, but their offense going up against a Texans pass rush doesn't bode well for them to keep it close in the 2nd half.

Pick Made: Oct 10, 12:30 pm UTC on FanDuel
Point SpreadNew England +7 -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+180
3-2 in Last 5 NFL Picks
+90
2-1-1 in Last 4 NFL ATS Picks
+726.5
42-32-4 in Last 78 HOU ATS Picks
Larry's Analysis:

Rookie Drake Maye probably can't be worse than Jacoby Brissett, as the Pats' passing game ranks dead last in most categories. At least he can escape pressure and he is willing to throw the ball downfield. True, this is a brutal matchup, facing Danielle Hunter (29 pressures) and Will Anderson (23 pressures) behind a porous offensive line. But this bet is also against a Houston offense missing difference-maker Nico Collins and, perhaps, Joe Mixon. When Collins left last week vs. Buffalo, Houston could not score another touchdown for the final three quarters. Christian Gonzalez can severely limit Stefon Diggs. Houston's four wins have come by a total of 15 points.

Pick Made: Oct 10, 2:25 am UTC on BetMGM
Over / UnderUnder 38.5 -115
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1421
39-23 in Last 62 NFL Picks
+180
4-2 in Last 6 NFL O/U Picks
+599
16-9 in Last 25 NE O/U Picks
R.J.'s Analysis:

Drake Maye will make his debut in a tough matchup against a Texans defense that's fourth in net yards per pass attempt and allowing 4.8 yards per play while behind an undermanned O-line that looked awful last week. Maybe his talent is enough to carry the offense to a good game anyway, but the cards are stacked against him. As they are for the Texans on the road against a quality Patriots defense with Nico Collins out and Joe Mixon still working his way back. This feels like a game with limited first-half scoring that finds a way to stay under.

Pick Made: Oct 09, 11:08 pm UTC on FanDuel
Point SpreadHouston -7 -105
WIN
Unit1.0
+1907
60-37-3 in Last 100 NFL ATS Picks
+498
27-20-1 in Last 48 NE ATS Picks
Mike's Analysis:

The rule of thumb here is to almost always play against a rookie QB in his debut start. With the Patriots leaning toward Drake Maye, the TD spot seems low against the fourth-ranked defense. Maye will have little help on offense, as ousted starter Jacoby Brissett can attest. The Pats average a rock-bottom 12.4 ppg. Brissett has only thrown one pick, so expect Maye to at least tie him here. The Texans should be ultra-confident coming off a compelling win over Buffalo.

Pick Made: Oct 08, 9:54 pm UTC on BetMGM
Over / UnderUnder 37.5 -105
LOSS
Unit1.0
+275
5-2 in Last 7 NFL Picks
+99
10-8 in Last 18 NFL O/U Picks
+165
6-4 in Last 10 HOU O/U Picks
Jason's Analysis:

I want to take the Texans here, with NE 1-11-2 ATS at home in last 14, but waiting to see if this goes to 6.5. Pats are 11-5 to the under at home last 16, they have scored just 73 points during their 7-game home losing streak and Texans are 4-1 to the under this season and aren't nearly as efficient on offense on the road and outdoors. Pats have dissent in the locker room and a QB controversy brewing. Averaging just 12 PPG this season. Pats have played 3 games under 27 points already this season. Games set this low tend to go under more than 70% of the time.

Pick Made: Oct 08, 4:00 am UTC on FanDuel

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Team Injuries

Houston Texans
Thursday, May 01, 2025
Avatar
CB
Jimmie Ward
FootQuestionable
Avatar
WR
Christian Kirk
CollarboneQuestionable
Avatar
LB
Azeez Al-Shaair
KneeQuestionable
Avatar
OT
Zachary Thomas
IllnessQuestionable
Avatar
RB
British Brooks
Knee - MeniscusQuestionable
Avatar
G
Jaylon Thomas
UndisclosedQuestionable
Avatar
OT
LaDarius Henderson
FootQuestionable
Avatar
TE
Cade Stover
CollarboneQuestionable
Avatar
LB
Jamal Hill
HamstringQuestionable
Tuesday, Feb 11, 2025
Avatar
WR
Braxton Berrios
Knee - ACLQuestionable
Avatar
WR
Tank Dell
Knee - ACL + MCLQuestionable
Avatar
TE
Brevin Jordan
Knee - ACLQuestionable
New England Patriots
Thursday, May 01, 2025
Avatar
TE
Hunter Henry
FootQuestionable
Avatar
FS
Jabrill Peppers
HamstringQuestionable
Avatar
LB
Marte Mapu
NeckQuestionable
Avatar
CB
Marcus Jones
HipQuestionable
Avatar
DT
Christian Barmore
IllnessQuestionable
Avatar
SAF
Kyle Dugger
AnkleQuestionable
Avatar
WR
Ja'Lynn Polk
ShoulderQuestionable
Avatar
DT
Jaquelin Roy
FootQuestionable
Avatar
CB
Christian Gonzalez
ConcussionQuestionable
Tuesday, Mar 11, 2025
Avatar
SAF
Marcus Epps
Knee - ACLQuestionable
Tuesday, Feb 11, 2025
Avatar
WR
Stefon Diggs
Knee - ACLQuestionable

Season Splits

All Games
ALL
All Games
25%
1-3-1
1-3-1
25%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
0%
0-2
0-1-1
0%
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or PK
25%
1-3-1
1-3-1
25%
When Spread was -8 to -5
SPREAD
When Spread was +5 to +8
0%
0-1-1
1-1
50%
As Road Favorite
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Underdog
0%
0-2
0-1-1
0%
vs Teams That Win <40% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
0%
0-0
0-1-1
0%
vs Teams Allowing 21 to 25 PPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing 21 to 25 PPG
0%
0-2-1
1-2-1
33%
After <=8 Days Off
REST
After <=8 Days Off
33%
1-2-1
0-2-1
0%
vs NE
HEAD TO HEAD
vs HOU
0%
0-0
0-0
0%
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