Last week, we saw the Cowboys prevail amid circumstances in which they often melt. What we haven't seen is them win a home game. This should be a high motivation spot and a value play against an explosive Lions club.

Micah Parsons, Eric Kendricks, DeMarcus Lawrence and Marshawn Kneeland are among the Cowboys' defenders who will miss this game. That's bad news against a balanced Lions attack that won't get away from the run. With center Frank Ragnow returning, the Lions' elite offensive line should clear enough holes for Detroit to play from ahead. Look for Dallas' home struggles to continue.

The Cowboys were the right play against a Steelers team that struggled to move the ball offensively, and Dallas won that game by the skin of its teeth with a late score. The Lions may not be as strong defensively, but their offense is at another level, particularly when fully healthy and rested like they will be Sunday afternoon off the bye. The Cowboys are limited offensively without a consistent running game, and that should allow the Lions to keep Dak Prescott under pressure all day. Meanwhile, Detroit’s Jared Goff may be able to do whatever he wants against a weaker, banged-up defense. If the hook gets added, I’d still probably play the Lions, but they are a much better call at a flat -3.

Last week I bet on Dowdle big and he came through. But this week against the Detroit Lions run defense that has been stout. I think Dowdle is more quiet.

All I'm seeing are bets coming in on the Over, and Overs on player props across the board in this game. Not surprising, as we should expect some high-octane offense between these teams who can move the ball downfield with regularity. However, 52.5 is extremely high. In fact, it's the highest total of the week. This season, totals to close above 50 are 4-0 to the Under, plummeting under the total by an average margin of 13.6 PPG. The Lions should look to exploit the Cowboys weak run defense, and a measured rush-heavy attack should sap time off the clock. Dan Campbell's Lions often play in games with high game totals, but when the total is above 50 the Under is 11-5.

Jahmyr Gibbs has run for at least 78 yards in three straight games, and now he gets to face a depleted Cowboys' run defense. Gibbs is averaging 5.3 yards per carry and getting 13.5 carries per game. The Lions won't get away from their running game, so this is a smash spot for the electric Gibbs.

The Cowboys have found themselves a bit and have won two straight but haven't won at home yet. They've won four straight on the road dating back to last year but lost three in a row at home and their previous home win was against the Detroit Lions, 20-19. The Lions come off a bye and they have a crisp offense that is just getting charged up after scoring 42 against the Seahawks. The Cowboys have scored 20 the last 2 weeks. Jared Goff comes off a game where he was 18 of 18 for 292 yards. The Lions have the No. 3 offense in the league. Lions win.

Dan Campbell and the Lions RB room must be licking their chops here. The Dallas Cowboys rank bottom of the league in rush success rate, and now must face the vaunted RB tandem of David Montgomery and Jamhyr Gibbs fresh off their bye week. Gibbs & Montgomery will always share the workload, but I believe Montgomery is the RB to target here. He is the perfect style workhorse power-back to put his head down and punch the Cowboys in the mouth at the line of scrimmage. I expect Detroit to go run-heavy in attempt to wear out Dallas's defense, that remains without their captain LB Micah Parsons, and key DL Demarcus Lawrence. I have Montgomery projected for 71 rush yards.

Goff's had under 25 pass attempts in each of his past two games, both wins in what were expected to be high-scoring games like this one. And, Goff's been under 30 pass attempts in 3 of 4 games this season. It just so happens that the Lions are catching the Cowboys without stout run-stopping linebacker Eric Kendricks, he won't play. That should make the matchup all the better for the Lions running game. Here's the sneaky part: Three of the past four teams against Dallas threw the ball 28 or fewer times ... and two of those teams won and the third lost on a last-second touchdown.

Jake Ferguson is in the midst of a big time breakout season and is proving to be one of then league's elite TEs. Ferguson is earning targets at a sky high rate and he also benefits fro the Cowboys playcalling and lack of a consistent running game. He gets a great matchup against a sub par Detroit pass defense. This could also be a spot where Dallas is forced to air the ball out a ton as the Lions are capable of pushing Dallas. Look for Ferguson to continue to be a focal point and one of Dak's favorite targets.

Prescott is over this number is 3 of 5 games this season and 11 of his last 17 games dating back to last year. In 2024, he is second in passing attempts and third in passing yards per game. It's all about the volume! Dak threw for 345 yards against Detroit in December and I'd almost be surprised if he failed to top 300 again against a beatable pass defense.

I expect the Cowboys have a hard time keeping pace in this game and I don't see them being able to run the ball on this Lions front at all. CeeDee Lamb is pouty after last week and will demand to be fed. The TE should see plenty of looks. Dude is going over 50/G his last 5 at home and even during their long home winning streak, when they were blowing teams out and could run the ball some, he was throwing 36 or more times with regularity. This looks like 40 or more to me.

Montgomery is the tone setter for the Lions offense and I suspect they want to send an immediate message to a weak Cowboys defensive front about how they can push then around. Montgomery went for 65 of 14 carriers at Dallas last year - a better version of the Dallas D. He is over this in 11 of his last 16 road games he finished, and he was at 55 yards in two others. They like bullying people in their own backyard and have more than enough in the trenches to do it here.

Gibbs has a long rush of 17 yards or more in 12 of his last 15 games. He usually comes into games after David Montgomery has already started to soften a defense up, and can gash them with speed after the power. Dallas gave up a long over this in its first 3 games, and I'm old enough to remember all the explosive runs the Saints and Ravens mustered on them in Dallas. This Lions OL will beat them up, and Dallas lacks run stuffers to stop them. Ravens had 4 of 15+ in that game alone, and that was before Demarcus Lawrence got hurt. Cowboys had 17 missed tackles in run game vs NO and BAL. Gibbs's elite speed will be a problem.

There is a huge mismatch at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball that Detroit can exploit here. The Cowboys have struggled mightily to stop the run. Behind a strong offensive line, Lions RBs David Montgomery and Jamhyr Gibbs might have a field day at Dallas’ expense. The Cowboys have had difficulty getting their own run game started, and it won’t get any easier against Lions monster DTs DJ Reader and Alim McNeil. Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson leads the NFL in QB pressures by a wide margin, and he should have Cowboys QB Dak Prescott flustered in the pocket all day long. Fresh of their bye week, Lions roll.

The Lions are nasty enough with the typical complement of injuries at this time of the season. Coming off a bye, they deployed every player on the roster at practice Tuesday, which makes them especially imposing here. Dallas' defense is banged up and the offense, hampered by a soft ground game, has managed just 20 points apiece in the last two outings, albeit both wins. The Lions should pound RBs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs against a vulnerable rush D. Detroit has covered in all but one of its last seven road games.

Cowboys have no DL to speak of and can't stop the run vs any team with a real OL and intent to run it. Lions two-back attack is a monster and love Jared Goff vs a toothless defense that will have to blitz to get pressure. Don't get fooled by DAL on MNF, they cant run it here and Dak will turn it over with too much volume chucking it around. Aiden Hutchinson will go off. Love rested Lions off bye facing DAL on short week. Cowboys now vulnerable at home, 0-4 ATS last 4 including playoffs following 12-3 ATS run. DET 13-5 ATS on road since start of '23, best in NFL. Can move the ball on ground or through the air at will.

It wouldn't surprise me if this line clicks up to -3.5 during the week as the Cowboys are a very average team at this point in the season. The Cowboys also continue to be banged up, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, and now they get a Lions team coming off a bye. Jared Goff appears to have found his form, gets a dome environment and has his skill players healthy. The Cowboys need more firepower on offense to keep up and I don't think they have it.