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Sun, Sep 225:00 pm UTCU.S. Bank Stadium
Track OnCBS Sports
Houston
Texans
HOU
Last 5 ATS
W/L10-7
ATS7-10
O/U6-11-0
FINAL SCORE
7
-
34
Minnesota
Vikings
MIN
Last 5 ATS
W/L14-3
ATS11-5
O/U7-9-1
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
Last 5 ATS
10-7
Win /Loss
14-3
7-10
Spread
11-5
6-11-0
Over / Under
7-9-1
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER

Simulation Picks

SPREAD
HOU @ MIN
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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

MONEYLINE
HOU @ MIN
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OVER / UNDER
HOU @ MIN
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54%
PUBLIC
46%
MONEY
59%
PUBLIC
41%
MONEY
Over61%
PUBLIC
Under39%
Over
MONEY
Under

Understanding Public and Money

Think of 'Public' as the percentage of people betting on each side and 'Money' as how much money is being bet. When there's a big difference between the 'Public' and 'Money' data, it usually means that the more serious bettors (referred to as 'Sharp Money') are favoring a particular side.

Expert Picks

Avatar
Total Made Field GoalsKa'imi Fairbairn Over 1.5 Total Made Field Goals -154
LOSS
Unit0.5
+1150
64-45 in Last 109 NFL Player Props Picks
Erik's Analysis:

Until Houston improves in the red zone I’ll keep playing this. Plus this guy doesn’t miss much.

Pick Made: Sep 22, 4:39 pm UTC on DraftKings
Avatar
Total ReceptionsDalton Schultz Under 3.5 Total Receptions -170
WIN
Unit0.25
+1150
64-45 in Last 109 NFL Player Props Picks
Erik's Analysis:

Schultz is simply not getting enough looks. I project 3-4 targets so under 4 catches is a value

Pick Made: Sep 22, 4:18 pm UTC on DraftKings
Point SpreadHouston -1.5 -112
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1016.5
32-20-4 in Last 56 NFL ATS Picks
+82
2-1-1 in Last 4 HOU ATS Picks
Jimmie's Analysis:

The Texans are 0-2 against the spread this season -- I expect that their ATS record to be 1-2 after this game. I am always hesitant betting against home underdogs in the NFL, but this Texans' team is for real. Justin Jefferson will be a problem for Houston, but the former LSU star may not be 100% healthy. Brian Flores has Minnesota's defense over-achieving, but in the end I see Houston winning by 3+.

Pick Made: Sep 22, 4:14 pm UTC on DraftKings
Avatar
Total Receiving YardsJalen Nailor Over 35.5 Total Receiving Yards -115
LOSS
Unit1.0
+378
151-121 in Last 272 NFL Player Props Picks
Larry's Analysis:

Derek Stingley is an elite corner, but he'll primarily be on Justin Jefferson. That leaves Vikings No. 2 wideout Jalen Nailor with an attractive matchup. The Texans rank dead last in DVOA against No. 2 wideouts. With Jordan Addison still sidelined, look for Nailor to clear this prop total.

Pick Made: Sep 22, 3:51 pm UTC on BetMGM
Point SpreadHouston -1.5 -112
LOSS
Unit1.0
+241
8-5 in Last 13 NFL Picks
+80
2-1 in Last 3 NFL ATS Picks
+537
11-4 in Last 15 HOU ATS Picks
Josh's Analysis:

The Vikings are off to a 2-0 start behind a sturdy defense and the surprising efficiency of journeyman QB Sam Darnold. The high-powered Texans settled for too many FGs last week against the stubborn Bears, but they should have the edge in this matchup and cover the short number.

Pick Made: Sep 22, 3:48 pm UTC on DraftKings
Point SpreadHouston -1.5 -112
LOSS
Unit1.0
+2577
84-53-4 in Last 141 NFL ATS Picks
+404
25-19-4 in Last 48 HOU ATS Picks
Adam's Analysis:

This basically comes down to believing in CJ Stroud over Sam Darnold, even in a home spot for the Vikings. Yes, Minnesota is riding high through two weeks, and it is coming off a surprising upset of San Francisco that has legitimately and deservingly turned heads. That means it is due for a let down against a Houston team that gave a lot away last week and probably should have won by margin. The Texans’ bevy of offensive weapons should win out in the end.

Pick Made: Sep 22, 3:41 pm UTC on DraftKings
Avatar
Total Rushing YardsAaron Jones Under 49.5 Total Rushing Yards -118
LOSS
Unit0.5
+1150
64-45 in Last 109 NFL Player Props Picks
Erik's Analysis:

This number has slid down and kudos for those who grabbed it early but I’m still taking it here. He is dinged up and losing time share.

Pick Made: Sep 22, 3:36 pm UTC on BetMGM
Avatar
Total Rushing YardsCam Akers Under 60.5 Total Rushing Yards -112
WIN
Unit1.0
+1498.5
68-49 in Last 117 NFL Player Props Picks
Daniel's Analysis:

Texans RB Cam Akers will be set to take on lead back duties with both Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce ruled out. However, I think this total is too high for Akers against this Vikings defense that ranks #2 in defensive rush DVOA. Brian Flores has this Vikings defense dialed in to start the season, and I don't see Akers carving them up. Akers has never been a workhorse style running back. He is likely to split carries with Dare Ogunbowale, and even to gadget WR Tank Dell who could get some sweep looks. Houston will need to beat Minnesota through the air. Akers will go Under this total.

Pick Made: Sep 22, 12:30 am UTC on BetRivers
Avatar
Total Rushing + Receiving YardsNico Collins Over 71.5 Total Rushing + Receiving Yards -111
WIN
Unit1.5
+192
10-7 in Last 17 NFL Player Props Picks
Dave's Analysis:

Collins has had over 110 yards in each of his first two games and over 80 yards in five of his past six including the playoffs. He's simply C.J. Stroud's favorite target, and that's especially been the case when Stroud is pressured: Collins had an 18.5% target per route run rate last year with a 67% catch rate, and he's at a 33.3% target per route run rate this year with a 100% catch rate -- and 27 yards per catch! This matters because the Vikings pressure more than nearly everybody (top-10 in pass rush pressure rate and sixth in blitz rate). And Stroud has been lights-out when facing blitzes and pressures.

Pick Made: Sep 20, 9:36 pm UTC on BetMGM
Avatar
Total Receiving YardsAaron Jones Over 15.5 Total Receiving Yards -114
WIN
Unit0.25
+314
48-32 in Last 80 NFL Player Props Picks
Matt's Analysis:

Houston is very good against the run and Minnesota's Aaron Jones seems to be losing some carries to Ty Chandler but also being used more as a pass-catching back. Jones was targeted six times last Sunday and caught five for 36 yards. The model has Jones with 26 yards Sunday.

Pick Made: Sep 20, 2:14 pm UTC on Caesars
Point SpreadMinnesota +2.5 -115
WIN
Unit1.0
+275
5-2 in Last 7 NFL Picks
+38
5-4 in Last 9 NFL ATS Picks
+290
4-1-2 in Last 7 MIN ATS Picks
Jason's Analysis:

Brian Flores has the Vikings D getting huge stops and he is 3-0 vs Kyle Shanahan offenses, including last week. The Texas are running that offense, with former SF coaches. Flores has allowed just 17 PPG in those games and just 228 pass yards. 6 total offensive TDs. Shut down CMC last year. -15.8 offensive EPA in those games. Texans still young in some key spots, love how Kevin O'Connell is using Sam Darnold. CJ Stroud is 3-7 ATS as a favorite. Stroud strong vs blitz but Flores has backed off the uber-aggression this year. Vikings. Very live to win this game outright. Texans have looked a little spotty to me early on

Pick Made: Sep 19, 2:36 pm UTC on FanDuel
Point SpreadHouston -1.5 -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1421
39-23 in Last 62 NFL Picks
+775
53-41-1 in Last 95 NFL ATS Picks
+2792
63-32-5 in Last 100 MIN ATS Picks
R.J.'s Analysis:

The Vikings are coming off an impressive win over the 49ers where the offense cooked and the defense got cooked more than the final score indicated, giving up 5.9 y/p as Jordan Mason and Brock Purdy performed well. This is another top-tier offense that was probably short-changed on scoreboard last week, getting into Bears territory seven times but scoring one TD and fumbling inside the 5. The lookahead here was Texans -4, and even with me upgrading the Vikings to above average I think this should be Texans -2.5 at worst.

Pick Made: Sep 18, 8:12 pm UTC on BetMGM
Avatar
Total Rushing YardsAaron Jones Under 54.5 Total Rushing Yards -115
LOSS
Unit1.5
+112
4-3 in Last 7 NFL Player Props Picks
Alex's Analysis:

This looks like a great spot to fade the veteran RB Aaron Jones after struggling against a stout 49ers run defense. Jones turned 9 carries into 32 yards. Jones also got dinged up in the 2nd half and at this stage of his career, the soon to be 30 year old RB has had durability issues/struggled staying on the field. Jones will face another stout run defense in the Texans that has shut down D'Andre Swift and Jonathan Taylor in consecutive weeks, holding each RB to sub 3.0 YPC. Ty Chandler also has been productive for the Vikings and is averaging 5.5 YPC, while out carrying and out gaining Jones on the ground.

Pick Made: Sep 18, 2:41 am UTC on BetMGM
Over / UnderUnder 46.5 -115
WIN
Unit0.5
+1341.5
104-77-1 in Last 182 NFL Picks
+135
3-1 in Last 4 NFL O/U Picks
+320
6-2 in Last 8 HOU O/U Picks
Erik's Analysis:

This line is going to drop. The Texans are not good in the red zone and the Viking offense may be overachieving a bit.

Pick Made: Sep 16, 8:16 pm UTC on FanDuel

Team Injuries

Houston Texans
Thursday, May 01, 2025
Avatar
CB
Jimmie Ward
FootQuestionable
Avatar
WR
Christian Kirk
CollarboneQuestionable
Avatar
LB
Azeez Al-Shaair
KneeQuestionable
Avatar
OT
Zachary Thomas
IllnessQuestionable
Avatar
RB
British Brooks
Knee - MeniscusQuestionable
Avatar
G
Jaylon Thomas
UndisclosedQuestionable
Avatar
OT
LaDarius Henderson
FootQuestionable
Avatar
TE
Cade Stover
CollarboneQuestionable
Avatar
LB
Jamal Hill
HamstringQuestionable
Tuesday, Feb 11, 2025
Avatar
WR
Braxton Berrios
Knee - ACLQuestionable
Avatar
WR
Tank Dell
Knee - ACL + MCLQuestionable
Avatar
TE
Brevin Jordan
Knee - ACLQuestionable
Minnesota Vikings
Thursday, May 01, 2025
Avatar
OT
Brian O'Neill
HeadQuestionable
Avatar
FB
C.J. Ham
AnkleQuestionable
Avatar
OG
Will Fries
Lower LegQuestionable
Avatar
DL
Taki Taimani
AnkleQuestionable
Avatar
RB
Jordan Mason
AnkleQuestionable
Avatar
WR
Rondale Moore
KneeQuestionable
Monday, Apr 07, 2025
Avatar
DB
Mekhi Blackmon
Knee - ACLQuestionable
Tuesday, Apr 01, 2025
Avatar
CB
NaJee Thompson
KneeQuestionable
Tuesday, Feb 11, 2025
Avatar
OT
Christian Darrisaw
Knee - ACL + MCLQuestionable
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