My favorite bet here is Texans -3 in first half if you search, but I am comfortable with the 5.5 for the game as well. Bears rookie QB on the road, with some beat up pass catchers could be a problem. Trends say the Texans cover way more as a dog but those days are over with the winning as much as they have. Bears have lost 7 in a row in this window, all by 10+ points. If Texans run game really is revved up, their play action deep shots will get even more traction. Bears only scored 18 PPG on road last season. Teams that come back from a 2 TD margin to win as the Bears usually dont cover the next week.

Chicago's offense was rock-bottom league wide in Week One. To expect a sudden burst of scoring is folly. If banged-up WRs Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen are ruled out pre-game, rookie Caleb Williams will yearn for his college days. The Bears' defense yielded the eighth fewest yardage despite being overworked. The Texans could flirt with 30 points scored, but the Bears might need to generate three scores to take this total Over.

Throw out last week’s results for both teams. The Bears are riding high after a win in Caleb Williams’ debut, but the Texans offer a significant step up in competition. Chicago also benefited from the friendly confines of Soldier Field whereas now the No. 1 overall pick will hit the road against a better defensive unit. One of Williams’ top weapons, Keenan Allen, is doubtful, while CJ Stroud enters with a full compliment of playmakers after Houston made a concerted effort to surround him with playmakers this offseason. This could be a double-digit victory for the Texans.

Joe Mixon likely isn't going to get 30 carries like he did in Indy, but he still should have a huge workload. Mixon averaged 3.37 yards after contact per attempt in Week 1. Dameon Pierce received only three carries as Mixon's backup. The run game was explosive for Houston, so I expect the Texans to stay balanced with Mixon leading the way.

The Bears run game was inefficient last week and I'm not expecting much better this week against a Texans team that did a good job against Jonathan Taylor. With a negative game script and a quarterback that likes to throw near the line of scrimmage, I'm expecting Williams to pile up the easy throws. I'm not high on Caleb in any regard, but this number is too low given the likely game script.

I don't think this Bears defense will be good enough to limit the run or the pass in this game and I don't expect the Bears offense to get going behind Caleb Williams until later in the season. I'm expecting a win by 7 or more as the Texans have the advantage on both sides of the ball and in the coaching department.

This is a great price on one of few healthy receivers on the Bears. Cole Kmet only had 1 reception (1 target) in Week 1 but that wasn’t because the other TE Gerald Everett was cutting into his usage, it was because Caleb Williams was struggling. With Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze GTDs, we have to think Kmet will see more targets, even if they are just 3 yard dump offs. The Sportsline Model has him projected for 2.8 receptions, so take the plus money.

CJ Stroud has an unsustainably strong TD to INT ratio from last season. He has not had an INT in his past 8 games (230 pass attempts... it feels like we might be due. The Bears have what many believe to be a top secondary in the league, and they tied 1st for interceptions last season at 22. If there is a defense to hand Stroud his first interception of the season, it is this one. The Sportsline Model gives him a 67% chance to throw one tonight.

Give me the buy low spot on Khalil Herbert. Herbert only had 2 carries last week for 4 yards. D'Andre Swift didn't prove to be too effective with 10 carries for 30 yards, so we don't see him earning the same share in Week 2. Herbert is 15-5 to this over in his career on the road and 10-2 last season. The Sportsline Model has him projected for 33 yards.

Caleb Williams struggled at home against a solid defense last week. He had two turnover-worthy plays and zero big-time throws. Now he makes his first road start against a better defense. It will be a raucous environment -- this is Houston first Sunday Night Football game since 2019. It appears Williams will have Rome Odunze but not Keenan Allen.

Over the past five seasons, Unders in primetime NFL games are 152-101-4 to the Under, hitting at a 60.1% clip. Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams struggled mightily in his debut, and his first primetime road start could be just as tough with wide receivers Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze both banged up. The Bears will have to lean on their defense, which looked strong to open the year. Bears CB Jaylon Johnson had the best PFF coverage grade of any cornerback in week 1. The Texans offense is dangerous, but they did struggle to protect QB C.J Stroud, who was one of the most pressured and sacked QB's in week 1. Bet this Under above the key number of 45.

Not thrilled fading my Bears but just don't think they are ready yet to win (or cover obviously) at such a good team like Houston. Especially with no Keenan Allen. Fellow WR Rome Odunze is likely to play but also likely not 100%. The model has Houston by eight. I'd expect something like 27-20. The Bears are 11-17 ATS as underdogs under head coach Matt Eberflus.

The Bears and Texans are both 1-0 except the Bears covered their game as well. But it's not going to be that easy this week for the Bears to cover the spread against the Texans. They won't get an interception just gifted to them in the fourth quarter, I guarantee that. And that was why the Bears essentially won the game. It was a gift and it wasn't the rookie QB leading the way. Caleb Williams didn't have a great game 14 of 29 for 93 yards and 15 yards rushing. Now he gets his first road game and two of his best receivers may be out. Texans write their own score cover.

The Bears ran only 53 plays and had an unbalanced pass to run ratio. I project 8-10 more rush attempts and Swift was already at this number

This line has jumped three points from the lookahead of Texans -3.5 despite both teams winning their games and only the Bears covering. That should tell you how much of a fake cover it was for Chicago, who got TDs on a blocked punt and a brainless pick-six by Will Levis but did nothing on offense while putting up just 2.8 yards per play. The Chicago defense has a much tougher test against what looks like a top-tier Houston offense. I also made a three-point net change in my ratings for this matchup, moving each team 1.5 points, but that put this matchup at Texans -7 to me so I'll take the half-point of value off the key number for a half-unit.