No matter how you break down this game, there are simple and important facts to consider: Caleb Williams is playing his first NFL game, and he’s doing it against a Mike Vrabel defense. While Williams will likely have a terrific rookie season, the NFL is a different beast than college -- even with the group of receivers he has been gifted. No. 1 QBs are 0-14-1 straight up since 2003 in their first career starts with 18 TDs and 29 INTs. Williams has a better team than most of those QBs, sure, but there is still an adjustment period. Will Levis should take a step up in Year 2, and the Titans offense has improved significantly. This is a significant spread given the circumstances.

The Bears added Swift to their offense in part because of his receiving skills. And for this game, Swift could easily capitalize against a Titans defense that is very stout up front but suspect on the edges. Tack on Caleb Williams' refusal to ever make safe plays and there could be some unscheduled receptions for Swift.

This prop has hit in eight of the last 10 opportunities and 18 of the last 27 where a rookie QB has started Week 1, including Trevor Lawrence throwing three picks in his debut. The Titans defense underwent an overhaul in the offseason, including adding L'Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie at cornerback, and a quality front should put pressure on the Chicago O-line. I think this number should be higher based on what we've seen from rookie QBs -- even the best ones -- in Week 1 plus a sneaky tough matchup.

Should we jump on a Bears bandwagon? Though we're not totally sold yet on rookie Caleb Williams at QB, there's a chance he could hit the ground running, and with a better supporting cast around him than many realize. Maybe a corner was also turned late last season as the Bears closed 6-2-1 vs. the spread down the stretch in 2023 even as Matt Eberflus juggled QBs, and just a couple of plays from climbing back into NFC playoff discussions. We have reservations about the Titans, not yet convinced about QB Will Levis, and Tennessee also begins a new era with first-year HC Brian Callahan, most recently o c for the Bengals. We suspect Mike Vrabel might prove a tough act to follow. Play Bears

The Chicago Bears have heightened new expectations even with a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams. Last year the Tennessee Titans were one of the more frustrating teams because of their inability to compete in second halves. That’s a trait I don’t expect Will Levis to shake in week one against a strong Bears defense. Take the Bears to win by four points or more.

Chicago's Caleb Williams might be the second coming, but not to be dismissed is the straight-up record of 0-14-1 in the starting debut of the past 15 rookie QBs selected with the first pick, according to ESPN. The Titans' offense is an upgrade with the creative Brian Callahan replacing the unimaginative Mike Vrabel. It's just what QB Will Levis needs. So is the news plans to return that WR DeAndre Hopkins from a torn ACL suffered 5 1/2 weeks ago, though he will be limited. Bottom line, no team with a first-timer behind center should spot this many points.

Top overall picks historically struggle in their NFL debuts. The last QB taken first to win his initial start was David Carr in 2002 with the Texans. Caleb Williams and the revamped Bears offense should be fun to watch, but they are getting a little too much respect in this matchup against a Titans club whose offseason overhaul should pay dividends.

I was so close to making this a max 2 unit play but decided to somewhat temper my expectations because it's Week 1. Santos tied for second in the league last year with 35 made field goals. Tennessee surrendered multiple FGs in 15 of 17 games in 2023. And the Bears offense should be even better this year with rookie Caleb Williams at QB. I'm excited to get Santos at a solid price for this bet.

This number feels low for Swift. The Bears made Swift a top free agent target this offseason and I don't think it was so he can carry the ball five times a game. When you look at the rushing attempt props this week, Swift is the lowest of all the primary starting running backs. Heck, Blake Corum's total is 6.5 and he's clearly the Rams' No. 2 running back. Swift went over 9.5 carries in 15 of 17 games with the Eagles last season. With rookie Caleb Williams making his NFL debut, I expect Swift to record double-digit rushing attempts once again on Sunday.

I don't think it's out of the question that the Titans fail to find the end zone more than once Sunday in Chicago. Ideally, they don't get there at all. In nine games last year, Levis topped one TD pass twice. The model has him at 0.97 TD passes for this one.

This line is inflated due to the excitement surrounding Chicago's new-look offense. The Bears should win Caleb Williams' debut, but the Titans will be game. They made a ton of significant acquisitions in the offseason (Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, Tony Pollard, L'Jarius Sneed, Ernest Jones, Chidobe Awuzie among them). In the preseason, Will Levis led the Titans to 24 points on just four drives. Grab the points.

Yes, you can expect some growing pains for the young rookie QB Caleb Williams. However, the Bears have done a fantastic job of 'rookie proofing' the roster with the amount of talent they've surrounded him with. What's important in this game is the Titans will be going up against a defense that finished 10th last year.

Not sure if the Bears will cover -4.5, but if you think I'm not betting something in Caleb Williams' debut ... then I have a beachfront timeshare in Gary, Indiana to sell you. Gary is a rare city that probably smelled better when it was horses only and their droppings. Generally don't "homer" pick but giving myself a pass. The Titans might be one of the AFC's worst teams under a new coaching staff, so I am pretty sure the Bears win. Second-year Tennessee QB Will Levis had significantly worse numbers on the road in 2023 among his nine total starts. Overall, Levis completed just 54% of his passes thrown beyond the line of scrimmage last year, the lowest percentage in the league.