No matter how well the Broncos played in the preseason, the regular season is a different animal. So are the Seahawks at home, particularly now with defensive-minded coach Mike Macdonald overhauling that unit. Geno Smith is comfortable in Seattle with a ton of weapons that basically exceed what Denver puts on the field across all phases. The spread is probably a tad inflated, but getting this under a touchdown provides value on the home team going up against a rookie QB making his first career start.

Usually we don't get carried away by 3-0 preseason marks. In the case of Denver in August, however, it suggested that maybe Sean Payton is finally getting things on course. Execution was sharp and both sides of the ball excelled, though most of the attention was on Oregon rookie QB Bo Nix, the winner of the Bronco QB derby and appearing able to execute Payton's gameplan , Nothing also wrong with the Denver defense, which got the Broncos back into playoff contention last season. Meanwhile, former Ravens d c Mike Macdonald makes his HC debut in Seattle after Pete Carroll was not-so-gently pushed aside, and like all new hires, the jury is still out on this one. We'll take a lead with Denver. Play Broncos

I like the Seahawks to grab and maintain a lead in this one, and while Kenneth Walker is likely to be a part of that, I think the passing game will be showcased as well. Tyler Lockett will likely play but has been banged up all pre-season and Metcalf likely draws a lot of coverage from Surtain. That leaves the extremely talented Jaxon Smith-Njigba free to do some work and I think new OC Ryan Grubb will feature him as much as he can.

I don't ever remember a Broncos team being behind the coach as they are through three preseason games like they were this year. The new quarterback scored on almost every possession. He's a rookie but Bo Nix doesn't feel like a rookie. He's a rookie on the road, normally a No-No wager, but everything looks good. The mood is good surrounding the Broncos, and the vibe is strong. We'll see if it lasts longer, it may only last one week or two weeks but this week I'll take it. Broncos win.

Last year, Denver allowed the third most rushing yards per game and I'm not sure they've improved their defense that much. Kenneth Walker III should see at least 20 touches, including a screen pass or two, in new OC Ryan Grubb's system and I'd be surprised if he didn't approach the 100 yard mark against one of the league's lesser defenses.

Bo Nix has a tough test for his NFL debut heading to Seattle to battle an always raucous Seahawks home crowd. He's also up against one of the premier defensive minds in football in Mike Macdonald, and the talent in the Seattle secondary should outmatch the Denver pass catchers. I also don't expect the Broncos to have success running the ball against Seattle's excellent defensive front. I feel like it's going to take a defensive TD to get past 17 here, and Seattle's offensive gameplan will likely center around avoiding that type of risk.

I love Smith-Njigba this season. JSN over 750.5 receiving yards is my top NFL player prop entering the year and I expect him to start the year off with a bang. The Broncos have stud CB Patrick Surtain but the rest of the secondary is weak. Tyler Lockett is dealing with a thigh injury, so that should open the door for JSN to see more targets. Smith-Njigba went over this total just seven times last season but I expect him to be a big factor on Sunday in a plus matchup.

In the preseason we saw Broncos QB Bo Nix do a great job of getting the ball out quickly. That's all fine and dandy vs vanilla defense, which is something he won't see here in the regular season against the Seahawks. Offensively for Seattle, expect them to force Denver to break tendencies to try and keep up the pace.

Nix is an accurate passer who likes to pepper his receivers near the line of scrimmage and that's the formula for racking up completions. Combine that with what Sean Payton wants from his quarterbacks (quick strike efficiency) and you've got a completions number that is simply too low. This game should also feature a negative game script for Denver which can only help us get past this number.

Seattle is loud, and in the preseason Ds don’t show their coverages. So Nix is in a really tough spot. I think he throws a pick

Rival head coaches and advance scout rave about the defense Mike Macdonald is bringing to Seattle and he has a shutdown corner and speedy linebackers to execute in coverage. It’s maybe the most multiple defense in the NFL, and this rookie starter (I’m not going to call him a kid because he spent a lifetime in the NCAA) is in big trouble on the road in a raucous environment. The Bo Nix hype got out of control in the preseason. This is going to be a major chore. I’ll be playing over 1.5 INTs in alt markets.

New Seattle head coach Mike Macdonald is one of the top young defensive coaches in football, but I just don't believe either side has the personnel to keep this game under 42 points. Seattle has several explosive weapons on offense, and Bo Nix has been everything Sean Payton and the Broncos hoped he'd be. I personally would have put this number around 45.5, so there is solid value here.

A year ago, it was inconceivable that Bo Nix would start an NFL season opener as a rookie. After resurrecting his career at Oregon, Nix has gotten the nod from coach Sean Payton. Problem is, he goes against a new head coach (Mike Macdonald) renowned as a premier defensive play caller. It is risky for a first-time NFL boss to be spotting an opponent five points in his debut. But Denver figures to be starved for points, which means the Seahawks' offense need not ring up a big total to cover.

I'm on the opposite end of the spectrum with these two teams. I bet Seattle +180 to make the playoffs in the NFC and think they have underrated talent on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, I have Denver rated as the second weakest team in the AFC behind the Patriots. Bo Nix might end up being a good NFL quarterback but I don't see him being a Day 1 starter. New head coach and former Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald will send a lot of pressure at Nix in the opener to rattle the rookie. Seattle is a little undervalued heading into the season, so I'll lay the 4.5 with the Seahawks at home.