Mostart is Miami’s best chance to keep this game close until they can make a big play and steal it. This total is too low

In this type of game environment I expect the Chiefs to lean on Pacheco in a big way. He's hit this total in 4 of his last 6 games and we know that once the playoffs arrive, your lead ball carriers get even more work. Pacheco got the added benefit of sitting out last week and resting for this moment.

Holy Moly...weather forecasts at Arrowhead have the temperature at -8, with only the penguins at the Kansas City Zoo thinking the conditions are swell. This does not shape up well for either of these offenses which were both laboring as the season concluded and could only get to a combined 35 in early November at Frankfurt during a 21-14 Chiefs win that also featured a KC defensive touchdown. Patrick Mahomes hasn't been getting much help from his wideouts this season, and the Dolphins attack has been dealing with injury issues. These arctic conditions can also produce mistakes which could goose the scoreline, but both have been trending "under" (KC 9-3-1 since Oct. 8, Miami 3-1 last four). Play Dolphins-Chiefs "Under"

Noah Gray is one of three targets Patrick Mahomes trusts. In Weeks 15-17, Gray averaged 3 targets per game and had 37, 5, and 17 receiving yards. The Chiefs shouldn’t need deep shots to WRs to beat Miami given their injuries and the bad weather. Our model projects him for 20 receiving yards.

We're not asking for anything Durham Smythe hasn't been doing. These past four weeks Smythe has clearly been TE1, and has soared over this total in all four games. The Dolphins offense is looking at multiple injuries still, and Smythe seems to be a good security blanket for Tua. KC will be locked in on stopping Tyreek Hill which will lead to underneath opportunities for Smythe. With the bad weather, I expect short passes to TEs.

This total opened at 47.5 and is on the move, getting as low as 42.5 on some books. The Dolphins will find themselves in a tough road spot in Kansas City, where temperatures during Saturday's game are expected to fall below zero, with 10+ mph wind gusts to boot. Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has struggled on the road against teams above .500. I expect the Dolphins will look to establish the run in this environment, which could turn this into a war in the trenches. Over the past two seasons, Patrick Mahomes is 16-3 to the Under at home! Bet this Under above the key number of 43.

Travis Kelce has had three consecutive games where he has performed below his usual standards, with only 88 receiving yards in total. This is an unusually low number for him. However, his receiving prop will improve after a week of rest and during the postseason. Head coach Andy Reid is known for saving his best-designed plays for the playoffs, which will benefit Kelce's performance. Moreover, tackling Travis Kelce in below-freezing weather is a challenging task. My model and most simulations have him getting well north of 65 receiving yards.

The Dolphins are limping into the playoffs with a bunch of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, particularly at linebacker. That should affect the pass rush and make it easier for Kelce to work over the middle of the field. He averaged 65.6 receiving yards in the regular season but slowed down a bit at the end of the year, which is depressing this line. But I expect a big game for him after a week of rest, especially with cold weather making it more difficult for Dolphins players to get him down.

Linebacker David Long leads the Dolphins with 113 tackles and is the team's best defender against the run. The unit is depleted around him entering this Wild Card game in Kansas City, and the Chiefs should feature a run-heavy attack in the bitter cold. In Miami's six losses, Long has cleared this prop total five times, including registering eight tackles in the first meeting with K.C. He has 18 stops the past two games. Look for Long to be busy Saturday night.

This is a tough spot for Tua and a Miami squad that has struggled on the road (4-4 this season), in cold weather, and are limping into the playoffs and appear to be the most banged up team heading into the postseason. KC sports an elite pass defense as well as they rank 3rd in EPA allowed per dropback, in addition to ranking in the top 5 in most defensive passing metrics. The temperature is expected to be under 45 degrees at kickoff which is significant because Tua has not played well in cold weather. Tua has played in 4 games with sub 45 degree weather and the numbers aren’t pretty, Tua is 0-4, 55% completion percentage, 4-5 TD to INT, and 71.8 passer rating.

Perhaps a lot of these are short, chain-moving passes. But he will see targets. Patrick Mahomes completes 78% of his passes to Rice, with a 125.9 rating and no picks (and few drops). Compare that to the rest of this sad WR group. Rice has 9+ targets in 5 of the last 6 and 47 more targets than any other healthy WR on this roster. He has five or more catches in six in a row. Mahomes is going to cut out all the fat here and feed the guys who he can trust in tough conditions ... That's a pretty small group these days.

There was a time when this would be -200, maybe -250. Like going into any of the Chiefs previous 8 playoff games. But Kelce doesn't have a TD in six games and Chiefs pass game is broken ...Still, Kelce is fresh off a bye, he has a TD catch in 11 of 14 playoff games with Patrick Mahomes, with 15 in that span. Including 6 in a row with a TD. Miami was 25th in TDs allowed to TEs. There is so much playoff history between QB and this TE I have to lean into it with season on the line. Maybe there isn't a ton of volume overall but in the RZ Mahomes is still going to look his way.

Tua struggles in any sort of cold weather, his supporting cast will still be limited here, Chris Jones is going to eat up his back-up center and Tua has been coming up short as the challenges rose. Most QBs are good for a pick in their playoff debut, especially on the road against an elite D and a top coordinator, Tua's thrown a pick in 6 of the last 8 (8 in that span) and threw 8 of them on the road and has two straight games with two picks. Steve Spagnuolo's DB blitzes gave Tua fits in the first meeting. He also threw 6 picks in six games against playoff teams.

Pacheco was over this in the first meeting with Miami. He'll go over again here and seeing 20 carries for 85 or more would not surprise me in the least. I anticipate a nice lead for the Chiefs in the second half, Miami is without its top two edge defenders (not just pass rushers) and is wiped out by injury at linebacker, Andy Reid's OL is suspect as hell in pass pro but can move people in the run game. Miami's wilting defense allowed 128+ on the ground each of the last two games. They'll be tested here on a frigid night.

Pacheco is fresh after getting last week off and ready to be a workhorse for a reshaped Chiefs team led by the defense and a run game. Andy Reid ramped up the rushing % late last season even when the passing game robust. Get ready for 20+ rushes from here on out. Was hitting 18 or 19 regularly even as going through some injury woes. Ran 16 times vs Miami in the first meeting and this will be a heavier load

Weather and injuries. Those are the factors that tilt the scales to Kansas City. Harsh freezing conditions are expected, and the Chiefs have thrived in recent ultra-cold games. Miami, conversely, has dropped its last 10 outright with temps under 40. K.C. is considerably healthy, having been able to rest key players Sunday. The Dolphins had so many linebackers hurt against Buffalo -- three in all -- that they conducted a virtual casting call for replacements. Let's add momentum to the equation. Miami has lost two in a row and three of the past five; K.C. has won three out of four.

Isiah Pacheco got 25 touches and amassed 165 yards from scrimmage in a critical Week 17 game versus Cincinnati, then rested up last week for the playoffs. Jerick McKinnon remains on crutches, so Pacheco's only competition for touches comes from Clyde Edwards-Helaire (3.2 ypc). With the early-down work locked up and 20 targets over his past four games, Pacheco is in line for another big outing Saturday versus a depleted Dolphins defense.

When the odds are against the Dolphins they routinely show that the oddsmakers were correct. As an underdog this season, the Dolphins are 1-5 SU and ATS. However, the Chiefs have struggled recently. They don’t seem like an overwhelming favorite. It’s expected to be 4 degrees with 16 mph winds and 18% chance of precipitation. The No. 1 offense of the Dolphins against the No. 2 defense of the Chiefs. The weather will play a role and favor the better running team and that’s Miami which averages an NFL-best 5.1 ypc. The Chiefs went 5-5 in their last 10, 4-6 ATS and they went only 4-4 at home with such an advantage. I took Miami and the points.

This line is creeping up, so let's bet half a unit. Travis Kelce has scored 16 touchdowns in 14 postseason games. He is well-rested and is a tremendous matchup against the Dolphins' 28th-ranked defense in the red zone.

The Dolphins outplayed K.C. in their 21-14 loss in Germany. But that was a long time ago. This is brutal scheduling for the banged-up Dolphins, having to travel on a short week to frigid Kansas City. The Dolphins are down to two healthy outside linebackers: 34-year-old Melvin Ingram and 30-year-old Emmanuel Ogbah. They won't be able to mount a pass rush, and corner Xavien Howard also likely will sit. So Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice should excel. While Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert are expected to return, they likely won't be 100 percent. It's just hard to ignore Tua Tagovailoa's dramatic home/road splits.

The Miami Dolphins are different from the team we saw earlier in the season as they deal with multiple injuries, especially on defense. Speaking of defense, the Dolphins were on the field for 77 plays and will be playing on a short week. The Kansas City Chiefs are well-rested and will have a massive advantage of playing in freezing weather at home. The Chiefs are ranked 10th in third-down defense and 8th in red-zone defense, while Miami is ranked 20th on third-down defense and 28th in defending the red zone. The Chiefs rank 8th in opponent passer rating, while the Dolphins rank 24th. Kansas City ranks 6th in special teams DVOA, while Miami is ranked 22nd. I will swallow 3.5 points!

I played at Under 44.5 Sunday night. It's down big and likely headed further that way by kickoff. Both of these are Under teams to begin with, especially in second half of season. Defense leads the way. I don't think injury reports will be favorable for bevy of Miami skill guys, and will be limited if they play. Andy Reid will run the ball a lot and be okay with 24-17 kind of win. Average of 39 points scored in KC home games (24th) and 8-1 Under. Teams played a 21-14 game in Germany and neither offense is in close to peak form. Extreme cold will be problem for Dolphins precision, speed-fueled attack on cold, slow playing surface.

DraftKings has this lower than any book, so let's just play it now as it probably only goes up if Miami's injury list gets worse. Tua Tagovailoa is 0-4 as a starting QB in games with temps below 45 degrees at kickoff with a passer rating of just 71.2, and as we said in our total pick this will be WAY below 45 degrees. Miami has never won a playoff game where the kickoff temperature was 46 degrees or colder. And the Fins starters are on a short week, while the Chiefs rested their guys Sunday in a meaningless game.

Largely a weather play as it is projected to be below zero in Kansas City on Saturday night, which is also why I surely will be fading the warm-weather Dolphins/Tua Tagovailoa on the side but that can wait. The total already has dropped two points.