Jefferson is playing through a chest injury that could see him play limited snaps, and it's unclear what type of connection he has with QB Nick Mullens. Although the Vikings are likely to scheme up Jefferson for short completions the way the Bengals have with Ja'Marr Chase and Jake Browning, it will likely take a long pop play for Jefferson to clip this number.

Hudson doesn't play a high percentage of snaps, but the sure-handed TE has become a security blanket on passing downs and has become a threat near the goal line. He has clipped this total in 5 of the past 6 games, so this price provides plenty of value.

It looks like the Vikings are going to Nick Mullens at QB this week after the offense bogged down with Joshua Dobbs at the controls. But we think little of Mullens actually making Minnesota any better, and not as impactful as the backup QB the other way, Jake Browning, who has whipped Cincy back into playoff contention with a couple of impressive efforts. Browning has completed 50 of 71 with 3 TDP and just one pick across the past two weeks and led 34-point eruptions on each occasion, confirming reports that Zac Taylor had faith Browning could effectively relieve hurting Joe Burrow after running the first team most of the preseason when Burrow was sidelined with a calf strain. Play Bengals

The Bengals are 2-1 ATS under Jake Browning, and the passing offense has been revived, though they do need to get Joe Mixon going more. Brian Flores has also revived the Vikings defense, though it is still inconsistent against the pass, which should allow Cincinnati to put together a balanced attack. When Minnesota recently found success offensively, it was Josh Dobbs’ playmaking filling in holes. Nick Mullens is not that guy, and while a switch to him was probably right, I don’t see him leading this offense consistency with a significantly reduced run game (Alexander Mattison sidelined). Justin Jefferson can't do it all himself. The Bengals defense should be pressuring Mullens constantly in this home spot, and Evan McPherson should be the difference maker.

The Vikings are coming off a thrilling 3-0 win over the Raiders. In the past 10 years, teams that score 3 or less cover the spread at a 60.2% rate the following week. The market often overreacts to a weak performance. Minnesota will be starting Nick Mullens at QB, who may in fact give the Vikings passing upside. Dobbs has shown flashes of talent, but he is inconsistent. Mullens will likely find success targeting TE TJ Hockenson, as the Bengals rank 32nd in defending opposing tight ends. Bengals QB Jake Browning has been fairly impressive, but I don't think he deserves to be a 3 point favorite against Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores' stout defense. I like Vikings +3.5 if you can find the hook

The Dobbs fairytale is over, Rocket Man has come back down to earth and Nick Mullens is in to be the Vikings 4th QB this season. We've all seen the Mullens movie and it's not that exciting either. Jake Browning, on the other hand, is no fluke— Cincy has dropped 34 pts in each of his two starts after the burrow injury. The Bengals are ninth in EPA per play and 11th in success rate under Browning. Brian Flores is going to try and blitz the life out of Browning but I am backing Purdy 2.0 to keep winning and cover the FG.

Joe Mixon has become an important security blanket for Jake Browning, as Mixon has caught 11 passes in the past three games. He's cleared this prop total in four straight. Chase Brown will continue to be mixed in, but I like Mixon to be heavily involved as a receiver against Minnesota's blitzing scheme.

Hockenson's taking on a Bengals defense that's allowed a TD or 70 yards or both to a TE in all but two games this season. You'll also love that Hockenson has put up at least 53 yards in 6 of his past 7 games (55-plus in 5 of 7), and he's done it with four different quarterbacks throwing to him in those games. This week's quarterback is Nick Mullens, who has a career target rate of 26.2% to tight ends and last week connected with Hockenson four times for 45 yards just in the last 10 minutes of their last win. Justin Jefferson's return will definitely take some work away, but not enough to make me think Hockenson won't find at least 60 yards.

This could be a favorable matchup for Jordan Addison. If Justin Jefferson can stay healthy, all the attention in the secondary will be on him. Nick Mullens prop line is at 240.5, meaning oddsmakers expect this to be a pass heavy game with Mattison out. Our model projects him for 55 receiving yards.

Cincinnati has rattled off two wins in a row under the Browning administration and now hosts a Vikings team that is downright confused at the Quarterback position. Even with Justin Jefferson back in the lineup, I think a Nick Mullens led offense is going to have issues moving the ball and limiting turnovers. They're also without Alexander Mattison who has actually provided a spark over the last couple of weeks. I trust the Lou Anarumo defense and the Jake Browning offense to get the win and the cover in a huge game for both teams on Saturday.

Minnesota blitzes at the highest rate of any team in the NFL and Jake Browning will be forced to get rid of the ball quickly in Week 15. Cincinnati would be best served designing short slants and outs for Chase, with the hope that he can make a short pass into a long gain. With Browning at QB, Chase is targeted 24% of the time and has a 29% first read share. A 7+ catch game for their star receiver seems like a solid bet if Cincinnati is to enhance their playoff chances with a victory.

Was waiting on Ja'Marr Chase and to a lesser extent Tyler Boyd to be cleared for the Bengals, and both have been. Jake Browning > Nick Mullens, something I didn't expect to type in my lifetime unless previewing an XFL game or perhaps for a Dunder Mifflin Scranton Meredith Palmer Memorial Celebrity Rabies Awareness Pro-Am Flag Football Game. The state of NFL quarterbacking is really lame right now.

Time to lower the fever over Cincy QB Jake Browning, who has been scintillating in his two starts. He confronts a defense that is coming off a shutout and held six of its previous nine opponents in the teens. Meanwhile, Minnesota switches QBs -- yet again -- with Nick Mullens on duty. As a starter, he is 5-12 with nearly as many interceptions as TD throws. WR Justin Jefferson intends to start, but how long can the injury-prone standout stay on the field?

The Vikings are turning to Nick Mullens at quarterback, and he should give the passing attack more upside than Josh Dobbs. With Justin Jefferson trending toward playing, the Minnesota offense should put pressure on a Cincy defense allowing six yards per play. Plus, the Alexander Mattison injury should have the Vikings looking to throw more anyway, which should help them put up points. Minnesota scored 19-plus in 10 straight games before losses to the Bears and Raiders, and they should get back to that level with the QB change here.

Only Ja'Marr Chase has caught more balls for the Bengals in Browning's 3 starts as Bengals QB. Mixon is seeing regular action in a highly-efficient screen game, and with Brian Flores blitzing more than anyone in the NFL, and Danielle Hunter wrecking game, I see another 7 TAR game for Mixon. He has at least 1 reception of 28 or more in all 3 starts with Browning, with at least 44 rec yards in each game. He's over this in 7 of the last 8 games overall.

In 3 full games since Browning took over at QB, Mixon is 3rd on the team in TAR and 2nd in catches and he's averaging 12.6/catch. So he will get opportunities and he is making people miss in the open field. He has at least one reception of 28 yards or more in each of those 3 games. Hard to see this element of the offense, which helps offset a suspect running game, going away this weekend, especially with the Vikings 5th in the NFL vs. the run. Mixon is getting 20 touches a game with Browning as starter, and there will be ample opportunity to cash.

Nick Mullens was drafted by SF, in what was a TE-heavy system. He played 10 games with George Kittle and was 62/90 for 946 yards(!!!) (108.8 rating) throwing to him. The journeyman QB as a career rating of 88.0. You don't think he sees visions of Kittle here? Oh, and CIN is worst team in NFL defending TEs in terms of catches and yards (33 more allowed than any other team). Yeah, Oliver might cut into us a little here, but Mullens will be looking to the main man and with Jefferson beat up again, this is a strong play for me. Even with all the QB instability in MIN, Hockenson is over this in 6 of 7, with 50 in the other game.

Mullens completed 9 balls in relief Sunday; 4 went to the TE. Hockenson, a big target and catch radius, might get force-fed Saturday in what is a very advantageous match-up. The Bengals allow 7 catches for 72 yards to TEs per game and are 32nd in receptions allowed to TEs (88) and yards (935). Colts don't feature TE much in pass game but Pittman runs a lot of TE routes and caught 8 of 11 TAR vs CIN. Before that: Engram (9/9), Freiermuth (9/11) dominated, Andrews was 2/2 on first BAL drive then got hurt, Schultz just missed (4/6), and Kincaid (10/11) and Kittle (9/11) sailed over this. Hockenson has been stuck on 5 catches the last 2 weeks but I see 10+ TAR here.

The Bengals give up an NFL-high 72 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends, setting up T.J. Hockenson for a big game. Minnesota's QB switch from Josh Dobbs to Nick Mullens won't hurt. Hockenson has cleared this prop total in nine straight. Even the Colts' tight ends produced versus Cincinnati last week, three of them combining for 65 yards. The early weather forecast looks good: no precipitation and little wind.

The Vikings will be turning to Nick Mullens at quarterback, and I think it's a smart move. A Minnesota offense that ended only one of its first eight drives in Raiders territory made it past midfield on both of Mullens' drives as he found success downfield, and he could be in for a big game here against a Bengals defense that has largely struggled this season, ranking 31st in yards per play. It will be up to the Minnesota defense to get some pressure on Jake Browning and get him uncomfortable, but I like Minnesota's chances of winning this game now, and the line should be under 3.

Minnesota has not allowed an offensive touchdown in two straight games. While that's unlikely to continue Saturday in Cincinnati, I do like Brian Flores' complex blitz scheme versus the inexperienced Jake Browning. Minnesota likely has moved on from Josh Dobbs to Nick Mullens, who looked competent in leading the game-winning field goal drive in Las Vegas. Look for a low-scoring game that goes to the wire and take the points.

Vikings have become a straight under team, led by a defense that has allowed the fewest offensive TDs in the NFL since Week 7 (8). Now they are on to another QB and making that change in a short week. They're scored 33 points in their last 3 and I don't see a jump here. Bengals have been frisky lately, but played suspect defenses (IND. JAX). Big step up here. In a league where low 30s in scoring has been common, this is still 2 backup QBs here. Only 2 of the last 8 Vikings games are over this total. Vikings are 10-3 to the under. That defense will do the work for us here and keep this game played around 20-17.