The Browns are immensely banged up offensively with their top three tackles out, and their stout defense isn’t all that healthy, either. (It’s prowess has also been a tad exaggerated due to competition.) Meanwhile, the Ravens are riding high on a four-game win streak with Lamar Jackson receiving MVP hype. I’d normally suggest that Cleveland would be valuable in this spot, except Baltimore’s defense appears so strong I’m just not sure how the Browns will score much. The Ravens are balanced – Gus Edwards is doing a great job – and Lamar Jackson has found a calm in his game.

The Ravens are the best team in football right now, and I like this spot for them at home. Cleveland is one of the better defensive teams in the league, but Lamar Jackson has his team humming and I expect they'll get off to a fast start.

Jackson has 5 rushing TDs this season, and 2 of them came in the first meeting against the Browns. He has just 1 in the past four games, but rushed 10 times for 60 yards last week, with more designed QB runs than in previous weeks. This is a good value for Jackson to find the paint again.

I normally wouldn't touch a line this big in a division game that is projected to be lower scoring, but I can't help but lean on a Ravens team that is playing in a different gear at home. The Ravens have recently humbled the Lions and the Seahawks at home and I think they slowly but surely pull away in this one against a Deshaun Watson led team that still has some question marks on offense.

Both the Browns and Ravens defenses have been excellent so far this season. Where this matchup favors Baltimore is with their defense vs a banged up Browns offensive line. With not many vertical threats to truly threaten the Ravens on the backend, expect Deshaun Watson to find it difficult to consistently move the ball enough to cover this spread.

The Browns have home revenge from a 28-3 loss on 10/1. Cleveland's defense threw a shutout last week versus a bad Arizona team but it does help build confidence. Baltimore has allowed just 9 points in their last two home games. Both teams are a combined 10-6-1 to the under. My model has this total at 35.5 with Deshaun Watson playing a full game.

Cleveland is without its top three tackles for this AFC North showdown. That doesn't bode well versus a Baltimore defense that ranks in the Top 4 in efficiency versus both the pass and run. The Ravens are balanced offensively, and that will stress this admittedly elite Cleveland defense. Baltimore has averaged 32.3 points over its last three games. Lay the points.

The Ravens are the best team in the NFL right now, dominating on both sides of the ball. Cleveland is elite defensively but banged up, and Lamar Jackson and Co. are clicking. I have a hard time seeing Deshaun Watson having much success against this Ravens defense. I like the Ravens to win by at least a TD here.

To me, this bet is "can Deshaun Watson stay healthy?" He’s been over this total in every game he's finished this year, and I would be shocked if the Browns were able to control the game with their run offense, which at 3.7 yards per carry has been pretty inefficient since Week 3 when they put Nick Chubb on IR. And the Ravens have seen 30+ pass attempts in all but two games. The Ravens formula is to win TOP with a sustained run game, but the Browns defense should be able to handle that. I wouldn't expect Watson to have much time to throw, but rather a bunch of short throws to help compensate for the mediocre pass protection AND extend the run game.

We’re going back to the well with Andrews, who has given the Ravens at least 46 yards in 5 of his past 6 games overall – and 6 of his past 8 against the Browns. This is Lamar Jackson’s guy and nothing the Ravens have offensively should change that. Cleveland ranks well against tight ends, but here's who they've played: Trey McBride with Clayton Tune as his QB last week, Noah Fant, Mo Alie-Cox, George Kittle who had two targets, Chig Okonkwo, Pat Freiermuth and Irv Smith. And Andrews, who had 80 yards on them in Week 4.

This rookie has wheels and has earned a bigger role. Tore off 9 carries for 138 yards and a TD last week in his debut. He had runs of 40 and 60 yards and a bunch around 10 yards. Browns allowing 4.1/carry since Week 4, just 17th in the NFL. They struggle big time in 20 Personnel with two backs on the field and Mitchell had carries of 9, 8, and 5 yards out of that grouping against Seattle. Ravens rolled up 131 on the ground against the Browns while Mitchell was on IR. He'll cut into Justice Hill's timeshare and Gus Edwards settling into more redzone role. I believe Mitchell hits a home run or two here to go over.

Looks like 6 might be gone for good as Cleveland is pretty banged up -- tired of hearing Deshaun Watson whine about his shoulder -- while the Ravens are about as healthy as they have been. They are truly playing lights out and are as good defensively as the Browns. However, the QBs/offenses aren't close.

Mark Andrews is quietly having an excellent season and if not for Travis Kelce (the greatest receiving TE of all time), Andrews would be regarded as the best TE in the NFL. Per ESPN’s open score, Andrews was the league's top route runner at the tight end position in 2021 and 2022, with Travis Kelce finishing as the TE2 in both years. Andrews is back to TE1 in the metric and possesses an elite 22% TPPR and 1.90 YPRR. Even in a really tough matchup against an excellent Browns pass defense, I'm comfortable backing Andrews.

Only two backs have more Rz TDs than Edwards (7). Sure you worry a little about Lamar Jackson keeping the ball, but in short yardage it's Gus. Browns are 32nd in NFL in rushes/TD in the RZ for the season and are bottom third in the NFL in rush D EPA in the RZ. Throw out last week's joke game against a Cardinals team with no QB - Browns allowed five RZ rushing TDs in three previous games against real NFL offenses. Gus Bus has at least 1 TD in three straight and six total in that span and I'm getting +125? Yes, please.

Ravens allow 9 points or fewer in 3 of 4 home games and Browns have 7 offensive TDs on road. CLE avg just 3.9/rush in last 5 without Nick Chubb, and now OL is mangled. Ravens are remarkably healthy and already beat them by 25 on road. Defense is trying to pitch shutouts, so backdoor doesn’t scare me much. Ravens have best rushing attack in NFL and rolled up 131 at CLE and that was with castoffs getting the ball. Browns 30th in yard/play and are bad in RZ, while BAL is 1st. Ravens will flex their muscle at home again. Browns have just 7 passing TDs (BAL allowed just 6) and Ravens have allowed just 3 on the ground. Good luck.

Browns vaunted D is 28th in RZ. BAL 6th in RZ. Browns 21st in Rush D EPA in RZ since Week 4, allowing 7 rush TDs (27th). Ravens 16 RZ rush TD tops NFL. Ravens 4/4 in RZ at CLE Week 5 with explosive RB Keaton Mitchell on IR. They finish drives with Lamar or Gus Edwards or Justice Hill or Mitchell on the ground and Browns allow TD every 2.86 RZ rush attempt, worst in NFL. Ravens top 4 in that metric and top 3 in yards before contact/RZ rush. Ravens have topped 30 points in last 2 at home and Browns on road last 3 allow 24, 38 and 26. 2 TD and 4 Tucker FG get us home. Number will keep rising

Both teams are coming off dominant wins, but one came over what had looked like one of the best teams in the NFC and the other came against a trainwreck offense debuting a fifth-round rookie QB. The Browns offense didn't exactly cover itself in glory in the game, with no drives over 60 yards and just 4.6 yards per play, and I still have major questions about Deshaun Watson's effectiveness. He'll be on the road against the league's best defense in yards per play and yards per pass and likely without his left tackle protecting him. The Browns are second in yards per play on defense but have proven vulnerable in recent weeks, and a versatile Ravens offense should give them trouble. Ravens cover here.