If you look at the box scores nothing really jumps out at you with respect to Trey Palmer. But from a snaps and routes standpoint he is firmly the WR3 on Tampa's offense and has been missed badly by Baker Mayfield on multiple down the field targets over the last couple of games. He's got 4.33 speed and is great at the point of catch and it's just a matter of getting the targets tonight. With a negative game script he should be involved and could be a candidate to be laddered well beyond this low yardage total as he can get down the field.

Murray crushed this number with 56 total yards in extensive playing time in the blowout of the Dolphins and he had 45 rushing yards against the Giants. But the bruising veteran RB will likely revert to his short-yardage role and probably won't threaten this total unless the game script sees him get extensive touches.

Everywhere you look the same question is being asked, what is wrong with the Bills? The answer is simple, Buffalo's offense sparks when Josh Allen runs the football. McDermott knows it and so do we, which is why we're taking his rushing prop tonight. Tampa's defensive front gets pressure and can stop the run game...with a RB. But with the QB you have an extra blocker plus broken gaps. Tuck and run big dog.

Although the spread has gotten a little out of hand on the favorite, this still rates as a get-right spot for the Bills, particularly on the offensive side. With the exception of the 14-9 clunker against the Giants two weeks ago, Buffalo has been efficient at home. The Bills scored 86 combined points against the Dolphins and Raiders and last year, they scored at least 31 points eight times at home, including the playoffs. The Bucs will have to at least marginally hold up their end if they hope to be competitive. Moreover, there are no weather issues in Buffalo, which will be in the mid-60s near kickoff.

I'll be focused on the NBA tonight but now that this hit 10 at Caesars, we'll throw a little down. Feels like this goes down somewhat to the wire or the Bills win by 30. The Bucs somehow are 2-0 on the road and Baker Mayfield's splits are a lot better away.

The Bills basically only have one tight end left, so they'll use three-receiver sets most of the night. That bodes well for second-year wideout Khalil Shakir, who has played the third most snaps at the position behind Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Shakir caught all four of his targets for 35 yards last week. In that loss to New England, Shakir played 36 percent of the snaps, compared to 27 percent for Deonte Harty and 23 percent for Trent Sherfield.

Buffalo's offense hasn't been the same since the trip to London a few weeks ago. (Some bad fish pies, perhaps? That pep talk from Piers Morgan not the desired impact?). Whatever, it's time for Josh Allen to start using all of the pieces in his toy box, and that means getting the ball in space to James Cook, who has been rather effective when targeted out of the backfield, and has gained 17 or more receiving yards in five of seven games. Play James Cook Over 17.5 receiving yards

Buccaneers corner Jamel Dean will be matched up often with Bills No. 1 wideout Stefon Diggs, and that should lead to tackles. Diggs has been targeted 78 times, more than twice as much as any Buffalo player. Dean is coming off a 10-tackle performance against Atlanta and has cleared this number in four of five games. The only exception? He injured his shoulder and neck in the MNF loss to Philly, leaving early with three tackles. He's had six and 10 in two games since returning.

There is a stark contrast between Josh Allen's passing volume in wins versus losses and an even starker contrast when Buffalo has won by at least a touchdown. Allen is averaging 31.1 passing attempts in Bills victories over the last 1.5 seasons and that number drops to 28.7 when the Bills have won by at least a TD. Allen has been held under 34 attempts in 13/15 games when Buffalo has won by a minimum of 7 points. Look for passing volume to be at a minimum in the second half is the Bills lead by double digits.

The Bucs were lucky to only suffer a close loss last week, as three red zone fumbles by Desmond Ridder made the game look less like a blowout. I'd typically look to fade a team with that profile, but I don't know how the Bills are going to beat anyone by double-digits right now. The offense has scored just 10 points in the first half in the last three weeks, and the defense made Mac Jones look like an All-Pro last week. Buffalo has a lot to figure out right now, and I don't expect them to do it on a short week. The Bills probably get the win but don't cover.

The Bills have failed to cover the spread in their last three games since visiting London and the Buccaneers have lost three of four since starting 2-0. Before the Bills went to London, they crushed the Dolphins 48-20 in Buffalo. Before that, they won at Washington, 37-3, and in Week 2, they won at home against Las Vegas, 38-10. Something is wrong with the Buffalo machine – injuries to prominent defenders, The Buccaneers have won both their road games this season. Tampa Bay is the play despite the road team playing on a short week.

I was prepared to tail Sia on Mayfield Over completions, but what if that injured shoulder gives the former Heisman winner trouble tonight and he has to leave? Frankly, Mayfield might be pulled for Kyle Trask if he struggles again. Buffalo allows only 201.3 passing yards per game, and it will be a shade windy tonight. Our AI has Mayfield with 208.5 yards.

Godwin is remarkably predictable and consistent. In fact, he averages 12.1 yards per catch in large part because he has averaged between 10.2 and 14.3 yards per catch in every single game this season. Thus, at 5 catches Godwin exceeds this total, at 6 or more he flies over 55.5 yards.. And the ONLY game he caught less than 5 was a game where Tampa ran just 42 total plays (40% less than average) and only completed 15 passes for the entire game. I project hi. Between 64-78 yards receiving

): Baker Mayfield isn’t going to be pushing the ball all over the field. He’s in a funk and on the road and it’s keep it simple stupid time, which means checkdowns and high-percentage passes – especially because the Bucs actual run game remains totally broken. Bills injuries to linebackers make it more enticing to challenge them in horizontal pass game. White has at least three catches in five straight and went for 65 receiving yards last week. In a short week I figure there is volume for him here.

Maybe I’m reading too much into it, but Sean McDermott response to some questions about Josh Allen’s rushing prowess caught my attention. Offense is struggling and sounds like more designed runs are in order. Ravens broke out of a redzone funk with a designed QB run for a TD early last week and I could see it here, too (I’ve sprinkled on Allen as 1st TD scorer, too at +850). The Bills need a win at all costs here and he can take games over with his legs. Good value here.

Two slow starting teams that are mired in a deep offensive funk. I’m playing the first half under of 21 as well, and kind of like that more. Bills have 10 first half points the last three games and the Bucs have 13. Josh Allen has a 64.7 rating in that span and Baker Mayfield had a 72.1 rating. Bucs have allowed just 9 offensive TDs this season, allow just am 85.3 rating with six TDs yielded and six picks. and a Bucs game total hasn’t gone over 44 all season. Bills have a history of big scores at home but not sure they break out against this defense in short week. Both QBs have been prone to turnovers. Teams are 9-4 to the under.

Evans is 13th in the NFL in air yards share and 8th in yards per route run, having generated 8 or more targets in every game except one this season. He has gone over 60 yards in four of six games and Buffalo has surrendered five 60+ yard performances to wide receivers in the last three weeks. 70 feels like a good floor for Evans on Thursday night.

Buffalo is fortunate it doesn't enter TNF on a three-game skid. But I like the Bills to start fast for a change and win by 10-plus here against a Buccaneers' team that's proving its 3-1 start was fraudulent. Baker Mayfield will play through his knee injury, but can he keep bailing out the Bucs on third down? He ranks third in EPA per play on third down, 24th on first and second downs. The potential return of defensive tackle Ed Oliver (toe) would be huge for Buffalo, while Tampa Bay defensive anchor Vita Vea (groin) is a gametime decision after not practicing all week. Desmond Ridder just posted a 107.1 passer rating in Tampa Bay. An angry Josh Allen should do at least that well.

Middle linebacker Terrel Bernard has played more snaps (425) than any other Bills defender. Since fellow linebacker Matt Milano got hurt early in the London game versus Jacksonville, Bernard has racked up 39 tackles (13 per game). He also has two sacks, two interceptions and a fumble recovery; he's indispensable given the state of Buffalo's defense. The Bills' only other starting linebacker is rookie Dorian Williams, who got benched last week. Look for Bernard to make at least nine combined tackles plus assists.

We're likely to see a negative game script and inefficient running game from the Tampa Bay side and that's a nice combination for completions against a very banged up Bills back end. The Bills are also likely to create pressure and that will mean quick and conservative passes to his healthy receivers and running back.

You could probably bet Kincaid Over yards and yes for an anytime TD and not go wrong, either, as he figures to be very busy as the only healthy TE on the Buffalo roster. This seems the most likely to hit and is priced accordingly.

I like the Bills here at home on a short week because my simulations make them -11.2 favorites in this matchup. Tampa has one of the worst rushing attacks in the league, and I think that will make them a bit too predictable with Baker Mayfield playing at less than 100% due to his knee injury. Buffalo will bounce back in a big way offensively and be too much for the Bucs under these circumstances.

The Bucs are the second-worst rushing team in the NFL, with Rachaad White averaging 3.2 yards per carry. After 16 of their 18 first-down runs were unsuccessful in the 16-13 loss to Atlanta, there's a growing sense Tampa Bay will come out throwing in Buffalo. White was effective as a receiver last week, catching six passes for 65 yards. Look for Ke'Shawn Vaughn to get a few carries and for Chase Edmonds -- returning from a knee injury -- to also eat into White's rushing workload.

We now have team total picks live on SportsLine! I'm backing the Bucs Over for a few reasons. I like that it's below the key number of 17, and I also like that we're getting even odds. The Bills defense is not in a good spot now with all its injuries, which helped the Patriots offense get 6.6 yards per play last week after looking like a trainwreck all season. The Bucs offense bounced back a bit against Atlanta thought it wasn't fully reflected on the scoreboard, and while Baker Mayfield reaggravated a knee injury, he looks likely to play here. That should allow the Bucs to get over this total.