If Jim Harbaugh can lead the Bolts to win in Kansas City down his top RB (JK Dobbins) and top WR (Ladd McConkey) and a starting linebacker (Denzel Perryman), major kudos. I don't see it. The Chiefs are very healthy.

The Chiefs are using a heavy dose of two tight-end sets, enabling Noah Gray to play a ton of snaps. In addition to his catches prop, I’m going Over on his receiving yards at this low number.

Chiefs lead RB Isiah Pacheco looked healthy and explosive in his first game back from injury last week. Pacheco ran for 44 yards on just 7 carries, and broke off a 34-yarder. The Chiefs should look to attack a Chargers defense that remains without their best tackler, LB Denzel Perryman. The Chargers may look fatigued playing their second straight road game in a tough travel spot. Pacheco needs to get reps in to get back into full game shape before the playoffs. I like Pacheco to prove he is fully back tonight and go for 50+ rush yards.

Since JK Dobbins left with an injury against the Ravens, we have seen the offense take a step back. Earlier this season they scored just ten points against the Chiefs in week four. Ladd McConkey had five catches in the first matchup, but is questionable with a knee and shoulder issue. Expect Quentin Johnston and Joshua Palmer to fill the late season rolls we saw from them last year when Mike Williams and Keenan Allen were out. Don’t mind attacking both props, but like Johnston’s upside more.

Chargers TE Will Dissly should be involved in the offense in this matchup against Kansas City. The Chiefs give up a league-worst 78.5 yards per game to opposing tight ends. Dissly didn’t show up in the box score last week, but that was largely due to an odd game script that caused Justin Herbert to attempt just 23 passes. Dissly soared over this receiving yards total in the two games prior. He should get enough targets tonight to clear 35 yards.

Just as we took advantage of a buy-low spot with the 49ers, it feels like another here with the Chiefs. Trusting Kansas City to win by any margin has become foolhardy, and yet, we are suckers for punishment. Offensive line issues have plagued Patrick Mahomes, but those appear to be partially repaired. Plus, Isiah Pacheco should get a full complement of plays after being warmed back up last week. The Chargers are playing consecutive road games without J.K. Dobbins. Their OL allowed the Falcons of all teams to terrorize Justin Herbert; what are Chris Jones and the Chiefs going to do? Los Angeles lost this matchup by a TD at home in Week 4, and it’s 1-4 against the best defensive fronts it’s faced.

Noah Gray has caught four passes in each of the past three games. The way the Chargers align defensively also should keep Gray involved. I love him to make three grabs on Sunday Night Football.

The Chiefs haven't covered in their last six games and struggled the previous two weeks against the Raiders and the Panthers but they've won six straight against the Chargers and have lost only once this year. They're 11-1 and the Chargers are 8-4 but none of those eight wins were against stellar teams. The Chiefs haven't lost at home and won and covered their last six games last season. These guys know how to win. The scary thing is the Chargers are plus 11 in turnover margin and the Chiefs are -4. It's a short price with the Chiefs and I got a quarterback in Patrick Mahomes who has gone 17-1 in his last 18 games. I'll take my chances Chiefs to cover.

We know to target tight ends against the Chiefs. We saw what Brock Bowers did to the Chiefs on Black Friday. While Will Dissly isn't Brock Bowers, he still should succeed in this matchup. Tight ends are targeted 27% of the time against the Chiefs. Coming off zero catches last week, I like Dissly to bounce back in a big way tonight. WR Ladd McConkey is a game-time decision, and either way Dissly is an excellent red-zone target for QB Justin Herbert tonight.

-190 is more juice than I’ll normally pay, but I give the Chiefs a significant advantage in this spot. The Chargers will play their second straight road game, while the Chiefs got extended rest and now have a healthy Isiah Pacheco in the backfield. This Chargers offense struggled without RB JK Dobbins, and their WR1 Ladd McConkey is ‘questionable’, nursing multiple injuries. The Chief’s defense has been shaky as of late, but I’m not sure this version of LA’s limited offense can really take advantage. Patrick Mahomes is 34-5 SU against the AFC West in his career. Chiefs at anything below -200 on the ML seems like value.

I like the Chiefs in this spot against a Chargers squad that seemingly peaked. The Chargers have beat one team with a winning record, Denver back in Week 6. Their opponents combined record is 33-64. KC is undefeated at home and are gearing up for the postseason. While the Chiefs have a very low point differential considering they are an outstanding 11-1, I like them to win and comfortable paying a fairly steep price.

Isiah Pacheco should get a bigger workload Sunday night in his second game back from injury. He's facing a tired Chargers defense that's given up 313 rushing yards the past two weeks. (Baltimore, Atlanta). LA's stop unit was on the field for 137 plays in those games. This is the second straight road game for the Chargers, crossing multiple time zones, following the MNF Harbaugh Bowl. Look for Pacheco -- who looked great in his return and emerged fully healthy -- to capitalize.

Isiah Pacheco suffered no setbacks in his return from a fractured fibula, handling eight touches vs. the Raiders. Look for the Chiefs to up his usage against a Chargers team that's been battered by opposing running backs lately. Pacheco is far superior to Kareem Hunt, and this is an important divisional game.

The Chiefs could have a new left tackle in DJ Humphries, which might stabilize the offense. KC has extra rest while the Chargers are in a brutal travel spot. Ladd McConkey's status is critical for LA, which couldn't move the ball once he left last week at Atlanta. J.K. Dobbins remains out so LA really can't afford to be without its No. 1 receiver too.

The Chargers seem to be stumbling a bit toward the finish line. Yes, they've won 2 out of 3, but they easily could have lost all three games and their win last week in Atlanta was almost entirely predicated upon Kirk Cousins going 'Full-Jameis' to give the game away. The Chargers defense has taken a step back, their offensive line has regressed, they have no run game to speak of and they've got shaky receivers (with McConkey dinged up). The Chiefs will be at home and are likely getting a piece or two back in their lineup while having Isiah Pacheco fully intergrated into the backfield. Look for the Chiefs to actually look like the Chiefs in this one.

The Chiefs have been barely scraping by against bottom-of-the-barrel teams, and their biggest problems have been LT Wanya Morris and CB Nazeeh Johnson. The former may not be an issue any longer as DJ Humphries should be ready to make his Chiefs debut, and that should allow the Chiefs to operate more like a high-level offense that the Chargers struggled against when they played Baltimore and Cincinnati. The Chargers didn't impress in their win over the Falcons, which came down largely to Kirk Cousins mistakes, with the O-line strangely having issues against Atlanta's toothless pass rush. I think the -4.5 lookahead was a more accurate spread here.

The Chiefs offense is suspect can’t tack on 3 from midfield anymore with their kicker hurt. Against AFC West scored: 19, 16, 27 and 17 points; first Chargers game had 27 points. Patrick Mahomes 11-4 to under in his last 15 home starts (33-19 career). He's 12-6-1 under in home divisional games; 5 straight unders (by 11.5, 12.5, 6, .5 and 20.5 points). Justin Herbert is 5-3 under in last 8 road divisional starts. Chargers/Chiefs games 13-8 under in the last 21. Chargers play a ton of zone and make you earn it between the 20s and play at as methodical a pace as team in the NFL. Mahomes isn’t even pretending to take deep shots anymore. LAC 8-4 to under.